psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 33 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Short range op GFS insistent on a more neg tilt while Euro has trended more neg the past 4 runs. 3K NAM trended more neutral tilt in recent run, but its a meso model so not sure how much we should weight it on synoptic trends (probably none) I assume you mean the WRF-FV3? I noticed it went the other way v the NAM. Guess we will know soon when the global come in if the NAM was just a hiccup. NAMs are jumpy as F and cause so many early panics because they come out first each suite, that’s kinda unfortunate. If they came out last we would ignore all their tangents. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 minute ago, jonjon said: Its still very warm out this way, 49 degrees. NWS calling for 5-7" So far the 12z models seem to want to keep the surface warmer than they were last night. Soundings last night had snow falling with 33 degree temps at the surface here. 12z suite so far is 37-38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, jonjon said: Its still very warm out this way, 49 degrees. NWS calling for 5-7" Are you worried about your 2m soil temps? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: So far the 12z models seem to want to keep the surface warmer than they were last night. Soundings last night had snow falling with 33 degree temps at the surface here. 12z suite so far is 37-38. HRRR looks the same wrt surface. Fv3 actually is 1-2 degrees colder at Winchester overnight. Around 34-35 during the snow. The NAMs went warmer because they totally lost the precipice out west. The NAM went less amplified and shifted the precip out before the cold gets there so you’re warmer. But if the NAM is correct what’s it matter since you miss all the precip from the wave behind the front anyways. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Heard some thunder just before 10. Pouring now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, osfan24 said: That was bizarre. That was the longest rumble of thunder I have ever heard by far. Seemed like it went on for 30-45 seconds. I’m concerned the sonic waves could disrupt the hemispheric energies necessary for the propagation of the thermal boundary. Why hasn’t it changed over yet? Radar looks like crap. I can see the back edge. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I assume you mean the WRF-FV3? I noticed it went the other way v the NAM. Guess we will know soon when the global come in if the NAM was just a hiccup. NAMs are jumpy as F and cause so many early panics because they come out first each suite, that’s kinda unfortunate. If they came out last we would ignore all their tangents. No, I just meant the regular GFS. Was looking 12-18 hours ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 The rain came in like a wall of water. I heard a rumble of thunder when it came through. Looking forward to my 2-3" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m concerned the sonic waves could disrupt the hemispheric energies necessary for the propagation of the thermal boundary. Why hasn’t it changed over yet? Radar looks like crap. I can see the back edge. But it was never forecast to changeover until….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 That was bizarre. That was the longest rumble of thunder I have ever heard by far. Seemed like it went on for 30-45 seconds.I heard a similar rolling thunder in Frederick around 9am. Thought it was a truck…might still have been, but timing corresponded with the heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 HREF has many of us NW of 95 switching to snow before midnight, not sure how good it is w winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 yep, both lightningmaps and the MoCo airpark reporting station confirm the lightning earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: HREF has many of us NW of 95 switching to snow before midnight, not sure how good it is w winter Not very but it’s better to be trending colder v warmer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: HREF has many of us NW of 95 switching to snow before midnight, not sure how good it is w winter Before midnight? I guess it depends how you define "many of us NW of 95", but it looks to me to show that occurring just after midnight. The HREF is just averaging the HRRR, NAM Nest, and Hires Windows - the most recent 2 cycles of each. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, high risk said: Before midnight? I guess it depends how you define "many of us NW of 95", but it looks to me to show that occurring just after midnight. The HREF is just averaging the HRRR, NAM Nest, and Hires Windows - the most recent 2 cycles of each. for kgai its between 11pm and 12am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 new hrrr is nice, switches NW of 95 by midnight/just after 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: for kgai its between 11pm and 12am oh wait mb converted utc wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 WB 12Z GFS: snow 1am to 4 am. Cleared out before 6am. Surface temps in mid 30s. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Not to go weenie mode, but at this point I consider the run-to-run slight bumps between the GFS/EURO totally acceptable, basically similar results. They’ve both downtrended slightly which is worth noting, but I weigh it less at this point. I care about the HRRR/RAP/3k NAM now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I care about the HRRR/RAP/3k NAM now. I dont really care about any of them at this point. I care about the radar. Thats about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS: snow 1am to 4 am. Cleared out before 6am. Surface temps in mid 30s. Looks like 1-3” and 32° for western part of our county! We take! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 What this all means is that I still have to go to work tomorrow… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I dont really care about any of them at this point. I care about the radar. Thats about it. Latest guidance kind of sucks for western areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 22 minutes ago, high risk said: Before midnight? I guess it depends how you define "many of us NW of 95", but it looks to me to show that occurring just after midnight. The HREF is just averaging the HRRR, NAM Nest, and Hires Windows - the most recent 2 cycles of each. I don’t think it matters much. By midnight places west of the fall line are cold enough above the boundary layer to support snow. But the surface is still torched. The exact time of the flip seems partially dependent on when heavy precip arrives. Some runs have a lull between waves and the flip is delayed. But these tend to be the more amplified solutions and they end to with more precip later when the boundary has cooled and that’s better. The runs that flip sooner are more progressive and end the precip earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 There just isnt really a cold air mass behind this front. Cold enough to snow? Sure I guess. But not cold at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 I don’t think it matters much. By midnight places west of the fall line are cold enough above the boundary layer to support snow. But the surface is still torched. The exact time of the flip seems partially dependent on when heavy precip arrives. Some runs have a lull between waves and the flip is delayed. But these tend to be the more amplified solutions and they end to with more precip later when the boundary has cooled and that’s better. The runs that flip sooner are more progressive and end the precip earlier. So what you are saying is we can’t go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Latest HRRR has me at 6” and still snowing when it ends. Ok… 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 fwiw it seems nam initalized too positively tilted(its held back) and less consolidated than it act is, as well as the obs being more held back w the system 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 can someone give a rundown for whats changed about this event since last night? heard a lot of doom and gloom and down trending but idk if it's true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 NAM has 0” for me now, still happy to see a few flakes hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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