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12/10-11 Disco / Obs - Rain/Snow/Wind Event


nj2va
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21 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Why are Weatherbell's snow maps always so unrealistic?

 

20 minutes ago, Ji said:


Jb works there

Ji is right...but to play devils advocate...you choose which maps to use...most of the guidance on wxbell has snow depth maps, kuchera and 10-1.  You know which ones are more likely given the situation.  If you're using a 10-1 map for some light snow event with marginal temps...that isn't the maps fault that is user error. 

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hrrr both nams absolutely cooked

we see changes in NS strength and orientation(more N-S, what we want), and overall they dug more and had the same tilt or more negative

can also start to see some of the deformation banding on them, all have a 3 hr period of thumping snow NW of 95 with nam verabritm likely popping 3h of blizzard conds
image.png.94bfde3313cd9e93fa0f509ba2971cc8.png
image.png.cd0449e95de0464cf9a117451a1bb525.png
500wh.conus.pngnam3km_z500_vort_us_27.png

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WWA/WSW for western areasimage.png.84eb0a4e3ad4d7a22563765fb16cdbf2.png

If NAM / gfs / euro hold serve from last night, expecting a *possible* WWA to extend from N VA over to Frederick and Carroll counties - especially if trends continue in our favor. Early season snowfall, big temp drop after temps get to 50+ (depending on location) by 2 pm and snowing very early morning before rush hour Monday. Could see a possible WWA being issued north of 70 to grab public attention.
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Well it's 55 at 6am so I'm thinking this map might be off unless temps start dropping faster with the rain. I thought I'd wake up to rain so perhaps slower start?

Sitting at 50F currently. Temps are 50-55 for most areas from here down to the Carolinas. Drizzle just started with heavier returns nearby.

Temps should initially go up over the next few hours, but once the deluge begins, that will stop. Going to be interesting to track temps throughout the day and to compare them to what the EC NAM and GFS depict.

2a45b6dc8c5e1e847cd5ca70388e6119.jpg


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24 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The 06z NAM 3km drops 0.6" precip in my backyard after the switchover.  I love that stupid weenie model.

The 10:1 maps are obviously ludicrous for this event, but I think we went all winter last year without seeing 4-6”+ on a 10:1 map inside 48 hours.

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