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12/10-11 Disco / Obs - Rain/Snow/Wind Event


nj2va
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2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I am posting realistic maps.  Let's be real, at best we potentially have a couple of hours of snow trying to stick on soggy ground when it is above freezing...

it will probably melt as soon as it stops snowing or even while the snow is getting lighter but let us enjoy some weenie snow maps that we didnt see last year

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8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I am posting realistic maps.  Let's be real, at best we potentially have a couple of hours of snow trying to stick on soggy ground when it is above freezing...

If the banding being shown does materialize I think a compromise between the Kuchera and the depth maps are more likely. 

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Your map sucks, I like mine a lot better
sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png

Imagine 5.8” in Baltimore city as depicted here? That’d be wild. This board would implode. 10:1 ain’t happening though.


Most likely outcome:

Trace to 1” for the immediate metro burbs

1-2” my area over to PSU and out west to Clskins (3” jackpot in there somewhere if things turn out for the better - likely somewhere along highway 15 in elevated areas)

2-3” for the higher elevations out west (4” jack if everything aligns right)

Anything more would be a goddamn weather coup. I’ll say it again… just give me some nice scenery with fatty flakes falling for a few hours and I’d be happy. This looked like a deluge of rain and nothing more just a few days ago. It’s been nice to see something trend our way for a change, even if the outcome isn’t all that impressive
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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the banding being shown does materialize I think a compromise between the Kuchera and the depth maps are more likely. 

I was looking at the NAM temps--they had me at 60--around noon...now it dosent even make past 48. 

index (30).png

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I was looking at the NAM temps--they had me at 60--around noon...now it dosent even make past 48. 
1285149730_index(30).png.53e42c6a3f54a85680695d2a81cb2e5d.png

Thank you for mentioning this. I was at work all day and forgot to ask. How are temps looking versus what models have been depicting? While it’s certainly plausible that we hit 55-60 degrees tomorrow before temps drop sharply, it’d be interesting to see where we actually land for a daytime high. If temps end up being lower than forecasted (mid to upper 40s versus 60 for instance) you’d think that would help our cause via a quicker changeover.
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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the banding being shown does materialize I think a compromise between the Kuchera and the depth maps are more likely. 

      Yeah, I'm the biggest advocate for the depth maps for events with warm ground and marginal temps, but those maps can run low IF the rates are legit (and it helps if the snow falls at night)

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2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

not saying it matters at this range, but the gefs has had a lot of spread the past few runs. looks like it's continously converging to a snowier event and reducing the spread by shifting snower. 00z (had a more - tilt fwiw):
1702328400-nIBlszUS4AU.png

i guess there's still spread, 90th percentile shows 7" with snow still coming down lmao
1702296000-Ld0krc7EOIQ.png

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