AtlanticWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 new hrdps, less amplified and more of a positive tilt leads to a less snowier solution. gonna have to see what 0z does before seeing if this is a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 new hrdps, less amplified and more of a positive tilt leads to a less snowier solution. gonna have to see what 0z does before seeing if this is a trend I love having as many models as possible show the snowiest outcome, so it’s annoying to see any model get worse. That said, the HDRPs has had some of the most stubborn and worst fails in my recollection. Anyone remember when it gave Baltimore like 36” of snow 2 days out, maybe that was in 2021? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I love having as many models as possible show the snowiest outcome, so it’s annoying to see any model get worse. That said, the HDRPs has had some of the most stubborn and worst fails in my recollection. Anyone remember when it gave Baltimore like 36” of snow 2 days out, maybe that was in 2021? i remember it showing like 10" for march 2022 for the longest time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Hrrr 18z looks significantly more amplified v 12z. Nice trend. NAM looks a mess at 18z which isn’t uncommon it’s bouncy AF. Which brings me to…what is NCEPs high res short range flag ship model of choice now anyways??? They stopped updating the NAM and SREF years ago. Which was fine they’re ancient and probably outlived the usefulness of tweaking their core at this point. But they were never replaced. The HRRR isn’t any more reliable and seems mostly ignored. The ARW FV3 I don’t think ever became operational (unless I missed that) and is largely absent in any forecast discussion. The RRFS has been in development for years and still isn’t operational. Frankly in most discussions of short range Synoptics they still talk about the euro and gfs mostly. So…what exactly is the current preferred high res short range guidance? Any of the pros in this area want to chime in? Let’s hope they just prefer the GFS because it looks nice at 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 i remember it showing like 10" for march 2022 for the longest timeThere was a storm last year where it was being very stubborn about giving us a solid hit until the night before.. even though all other guidance had shifted away from that possibility. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Let’s hope they just prefer the GFS because it looks nice at 18z And let’s face it… it IS the best model these days post upgrade. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 gfs better fs 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Let’s hope they just prefer the GFS because it looks nice at 18z I’m legit curious what NWS and NCEP prefer when making short range forecasts. But honestly given the inconsistency of all high res (especially the NAMs) I tend to still weight the GFS/Euro for giving me the general Synoptics then use common sense and the high res to get an idea what the meso scale features will look like. But I apply those meso features to the GFS/Euros larger synoptic representation. I don’t trust the high res models at all for picking up trends wrt the larger features. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m legit curious what NWS and NCEP prefer when making short range forecasts. But honestly given the inconsistency of all high res (especially the NAMs) I tend to still weight the GFS/Euro for giving me the general Synoptics then use common sense and the high res to get an idea what the meso scale features will look like. But I apply those meso features to the GFS/Euros larger synoptic representation. I don’t trust the high res models at all for picking up trends wrt the larger features. Thats probably what the NWS offices do as well. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 gfs better fsThis actually makes more sense vs. what the mesos are showing. Yes, CAPEs area is further east, but they’ll also see more significant precip from the coastal low. That secondary pocket of 2-3” east of the bay would make sense in this scenario. Later flip, but more intense precip. Edit — ratios won’t be 10:1 but rates will play a huge factor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 18z gfs: Widespread 0.1-0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, jayyy said: And let’s face it… it IS the best model these days post upgrade. . I haven't seen any of the 500 HP verification scores lately. There was a time not too long ago when the GFS had dropped to third behind the CMC. Is that no longer true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 I haven't seen any of the 500 HP verification scores lately. There was a time not too long ago when the GFS had dropped to third behind the CMC. Is that no longer true?I haven’t checked verification scores either tbh, but it certainly feels like the GFS has been pretty money over the past year or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 minute ago, jayyy said: I haven’t checked verification scores either tbh, but it certainly feels like the GFS has been pretty money over the past year or so. I have been saying for a long time. Don't ignore the GFS............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Huffwx said: This. That 500 low goes negative a low forms over South Carolina Hey you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 21 minutes ago, jayyy said: I haven’t checked verification scores either tbh, but it certainly feels like the GFS has been pretty money over the past year or so. If we're talking about Northern Hemisphere Day 5 anomaly coefficient at 500 mb, which is generally considered the standard metric for synoptic performance, the GFS has been solidly in 4th place for most of this year, trailing the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 if anyone cares, RAP is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 49 minutes ago, jayyy said: This actually makes more sense vs. what the mesos are showing. Yes, CAPEs area is further east, but they’ll also see more significant precip from the coastal low. That secondary pocket of 2-3” east of the bay would make sense in this scenario. Later flip, but more intense precip. Edit — ratios won’t be 10:1 but rates will play a huge factor. I would love this to reflect ground truth, but it won't be (as most of us know). At this point I think there is a decent shot of non accumulating snow in the air east of the Fall line, and an inch or 2 up your way, with several inches in the western highlands. That would be an area wide win imo given how this looked not too long ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Hrrr 18z looks significantly more amplified v 12z. Nice trend. NAM looks a mess at 18z which isn’t uncommon it’s bouncy AF. Which brings me to…what is NCEPs high res short range flag ship model of choice now anyways??? They stopped updating the NAM and SREF years ago. Which was fine they’re ancient and probably outlived the usefulness of tweaking their core at this point. But they were never replaced. The HRRR isn’t any more reliable and seems mostly ignored. The ARW FV3 I don’t think ever became operational (unless I missed that) and is largely absent in any forecast discussion. The RRFS has been in development for years and still isn’t operational. Frankly in most discussions of short range Synoptics they still talk about the euro and gfs mostly. So…what exactly is the current preferred high res short range guidance? Any of the pros in this area want to chime in? I'll chime in, the answers (opinions??) are complicated and nuanced. The HRRR is still the flagship CAM, but it has primarily been tuned for deep convection, and I hesitate to use it much for winter weather, especially with cold air damming events. The HRRR also hasn't been updated in way too long, because all efforts are on RRFS, which hasn't come together as quickly as planned. The NAM Nest, IMHO, is still very good for precip type, although it runs a bit on the cold side and is wet, but there isn't currently a CAM that does better with cold air damming. There are 3 HiRes Windows (ARW, ARW2, and FV3) - they are all operational, but I don't love them for winter weather. The FV3 HiRes Window is particularly bad for thermal profiles. If I had to pick a CAM for winter, I'd go with the NAM Nest, but I'd be weary of its synoptic errors beyond 36-48 hours and realize that it runs a bit on the cold side. 7 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 25 minutes ago, high risk said: If we're talking about Northern Hemisphere Day 5 anomaly coefficient at 500 mb, which is generally considered the standard metric for synoptic performance, the GFS has been solidly in 4th place for most of this year, trailing the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC. It would definitely trail the CMC for rationational cooling nightly lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Searching for a better short range model than the NAM as suggested by psu. Lets try the NDFD I could buy this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormy said: Searching for a better short range model than the NAM as suggested by psu. Lets try the NDFD I could buy this. NDFD is the gridded NWS forecast 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, high risk said: NDFD is the gridded NWS forecast Was just about to post this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, high risk said: NDFD is the gridded NWS forecast Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 can we get one winter where the 90% on the gefs hits every storm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 can we get one winter where the 90% on the gefs hits every storm? Our current “most likely” 10:1 outcome was the 90% on the GEFS ~24 hours ago… it’s still just correcting to the truth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Our current “most likely” 10:1 outcome was the 90% on the GEFS ~24 hours ago… it’s still just correcting to the truth That’s kinda what inspired me to make that comment. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s kinda what inspired me to make that comment. if we can get one more day of trends like these, maybe we can have model outputs showing 6". just a thought tho, doubt it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: Hey you! Hey now, Howard. It's been a minute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 euro coming in with more of a - tilt, less snow for areas west tho and i'm not sure why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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