CAPE Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: euro coming in with more of a - tilt, less snow for areas west tho and i'm not sure why It's literally the same, outside of minor run to run noise. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Are we now in the model hallucination stage of the program, preceding the radar hallucination stage? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's literally the same, outside of minor run to run noise. fair enough, i think i'm j reading too much into it. definitely more of a negative tilt though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Just now, AtlanticWx said: fair enough, i think i'm j reading too much into it. definitely more of a negative tilt though Slight. Given other factors, not enough to make any difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's literally the same, outside of minor run to run noise. Euro seems locked in 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro seems locked in It does. Still holds significant weight, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Are we now in the model hallucination stage of the program, preceding the radar hallucination stage?Wxrisk.com woofing for thunder snow in central Md and shendoah valley 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 WB 18Z EURO, if I see two inches I will be thrilled. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 36 minutes ago, Ji said: Wxrisk.com woofing for thunder snow in central Md and shendoah valley Now that I look closer at the soundings it’s a legit possibility. Doesn’t necessarily mean anything wrt accumulations. Boundary temps are still an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 44 minutes ago, Ji said: Wxrisk.com woofing for thunder snow in central Md and shendoah valley Had to post this. If you are in my area this is music to your ears. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: It's literally the same, outside of minor run to run noise. 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Euro seems locked in It’s been a rock for 6 consecutive runs now. With the exception of random noise run to run (which everyone freaks out over if some meso band shifts 5 miles and changes their yards output) it’s been as locked in as I’ve ever seen. Impressive if it ends up nailing this. And worth noting next time we’re in this situation. All other guidance has had some hiccup runs in the last 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 0z hrrr holds serve. Feeling pretty confident about getting an inch or two of mashed potatoes tomorrow night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 0z hrrr holds serve. Feeling pretty confident about getting an inch or two of mashed potatoes tomorrow night. EPS thinks it’s a pretty good bet 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Are we now in the model hallucination stage of the program, preceding the radar hallucination stage? Classic sig material. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 If I still resided in Dale City --- I'd be definitely planning on going to West Virginia via Rts 28, 7 and 9. Rt 9 is gonna be a wonderbar place to be for the storm. Once you get west of Hillsboro, MASSIVE change in the weather, snow often became heavy and accumulative. I saw this so many times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 on water vapor imagery northern stream looks more amped and quicker than modeled, this is good and would make our sw negatilt faster downstream as well provide more cold air the disturbance in S Canada that extends into N border of US is the NS 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 It’s been a rock for 6 consecutive runs now. With the exception of random noise run to run (which everyone freaks out over if some meso band shifts 5 miles and changes their yards output) it’s been as locked in as I’ve ever seen. Impressive if it ends up nailing this. And worth noting next time we’re in this situation. All other guidance has had some hiccup runs in the last 36 hours. Most famous euro hiccup was when it took us from 28-19 inches 2 days before game time with a stressful south shift lol in 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 FWIW sref probabilities of 1” increased significantly 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Most famous euro hiccup was when it took us from 28-19 inches 2 days before game time with a stressful south shift lol true but 1) that was like 4 upgrades ago. 2) it was a major hiccup but it was like 60 hours about I think and it corrected immediately next run. One hiccup out of 8 days of runs is to be expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 39/31 - gave the lawn one final mow today to a proper 2” in preparation for snow season! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 nam... trended more positive, better NS, less postilted, more amped 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Both NAMs look good for a period of Mod to heavy snow into the cities. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 WB 0Z 3K NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z 3K NAM Your map sucks, I like mine a lot better 6 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 I would love this to reflect ground truth, but it won't be (as most of us know). At this point I think there is a decent shot of non accumulating snow in the air east of the Fall line, and an inch or 2 up your way, with several inches in the western highlands. That would be an area wide win imo given how this looked not too long ago.Was trying to good juju it into existence! Pretty confident we can get an inch or so up here. It doesn’t even need to stick honestly.. just give me a few hours of fatties flying and I’m content. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 i think we'll be ripping snow regardless 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Your map sucks, I like mine a lot better verabritm temps are 32-33 here when theres 35 dbz snow thats def sticking and once we have a coating otg everything else will accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Models doubling down, getting interesting. Tomorrow we’ll be in nowcast mode. Feels good to be tracking something before mid-dec 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 WB 3K NAM 4 inch liquid totals DC metro East...Mon. Am rush hour will be a mess. Good day to telework... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 3k going all in ramping up precip totals and rates. Let’s go! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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