12/10-11 Disco / Obs - Rain/Snow/Wind Event

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO is holding serve with a flip to flakes at the end. 

Basically identical to 06z.

[WesternFringe]

TT's map looks way different than WB's...

 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Basically identical to 06z.

Temps are never good at the surface, to be clear. 850s are good - imagine everything but the surface would support scenic snow for folks who want to set their alarms for 3-4am.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Starting threads now SAVES storms?

World is upside down

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Starting threads now SAVES storms?

World is upside down

stop being a Grinch.  

[mappy]

FWIW - Ava has 40% chance of rain/mix Monday AM for the Baltimore Metro

[hstorm]

18 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

TT's map looks way different than WB's...

 

FWIW (not much), Pivotal Weather's NAM map is in between WB and TT.

[psuhoffman]

41 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Basically identical to 06z.

NO it gives me a half inch more... it matters. 

IT Fing MATTERS!!!!

[psuhoffman]

The synoptic setup here reminds me a little of a storm in November 1995.  

 

[NorthArlington101]

FWIW - EPS is a tick up. 

50th Percentile

Standard Mean

[rjvanals]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The synoptic setup here reminds me a little of a storm in early November 1995.  

Remember that storm which I believe was on Veterans Day of 95 that brought afternoon severe storms and then a massive temp drop that brought sleet then snow. Had maybe ~2 inches from that in Potomac 

[WxUSAF]

52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Temps are never good at the surface, to be clear. 850s are good - imagine everything but the surface would support scenic snow for folks who want to set their alarms for 3-4am.

Overnight hours obviously help, but I’d sell on accumulations below higher elevations in the far burbs. Rates will also matter. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The synoptic setup here reminds me a little of a storm in late November 1995.  

 

That one gave me like 5" out here.  That was a really good event.  I suspect this event will be somewhat less exciting.

[dallen7908]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

Remember that storm which I believe was on Veterans Day of 95 that brought afternoon severe storms and then a massive temp drop that brought sleet then snow. Had maybe ~2 inches from that in Potomac 

Yes, I remember it being in the 60s earlier in the day, getting about an inch of rain and then coming out of an early Saturday evening mass with perhaps an inch of snow on the grass

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Remember that storm which I believe was on Veterans Day of 95 that brought afternoon severe storms and then a massive temp drop that brought sleet then snow. Had maybe ~2 inches from that in Potomac 

Wasn’t that 87?

[rjvanals]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Wasn’t that 87?

No 87 was the big Veterans Day storm. The one in 95 was short duration but had intense rates and enough sleet for my 10 year old self to sled down the driveway. 

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Remember that storm which I believe was on Veterans Day of 95 that brought afternoon severe storms and then a massive temp drop that brought sleet then snow. Had maybe ~2 inches from that in Potomac 

 

16 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Yes, I remember it being in the 60s earlier in the day, getting about an inch of rain and then coming out of an early Saturday evening mass with perhaps an inch of snow on the grass

If my memory is correct it was on a Saturday, I think around the 10th or something... I had a soccer game earlier that day and it was like 65 degrees...then we had some heavy rain in the afternoon which turned to snow in the evening.  I got about an inch in Herndon VA.  Places NW got a bit more.  It was a wave along a cold front.  

There was another storm a few days later around Veterans Day that was a more typical coastal but simply too warm for snow.  It was a miserable cold rain that mixed with snow at times in Northern VA, I think places like where I am now got some accumulation and were snow/ice from that storm also.  

[HighStakes]

53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The synoptic setup here reminds me a little of a storm in November 1995.  

 

I was think the same thing. Coincidentally there was a similar event to November 1995 just 8 months earlier in March of 1995. Strong front where the cold air rushed in just in time to catch up with the heavy precip. Heavy rain quickly changed to heavy snow for about 2 hours before it shut off.  I was out that evening and when I arrived at my destination around 6-6:30 it was torrential rains and temps well into the 50's if not higher. When I walked out side 3-4 hours later it was snowing lightly with temps 32-34. 2-3 inches was on the car and ground. Roads were bad too and that was in lower Pikesville near the city line. This event is never brought up or remembered. Really unique to have 2 very unusual events in the same year especially since they occurred in early Spring and Fall respectively. Both events were well forecasted for heavy rain and rapidly falling temps behind the fronts with exception of  no mention of a chance for a change to accumulating snow which came as surprise to everyone.

[HighStakes]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

If my memory is correct it was on a Saturday, I think around the 10th or something... I had a soccer game earlier that day and it was like 65 degrees...then we had some heavy rain in the afternoon which turned to snow in the evening.  I got about an inch in Herndon VA.  Places NW got a bit more.  It was a wave along a cold front.  

There was another storm a few days later around Veterans Day that was a more typical coastal but simply too warm for snow.  It was a miserable cold rain that mixed with snow at times in Northern VA, I think places like where I am now got some accumulation and were snow/ice from that storm also.  

It was definitely a Saturday. 

[gymengineer]

39 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Remember that storm which I believe was on Veterans Day of 95 that brought afternoon severe storms and then a massive temp drop that brought sleet then snow. Had maybe ~2 inches from that in Potomac 

I grew up in Potomac and vividly remember this event as well. The severe weather knocked out power in my neighborhood before the flip. The winds kept being gusty after the flip so it was a very wintry couple of hours. Most of it melted by morning. 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I was think the same thing. Coincidentally there was a similar event to November 1995 just 8 months earlier in March of 1995. Strong front where the cold air rushed in just in time to catch up with the heavy precip. Heavy rain quickly changed to heavy snow for about 2 hours before it shut off.  I was out that evening and when I arrived at my destination around 6-6:30 it was torrential rains and temps well into the 50's if not higher. When I walked out side 3-4 hours later it was snowing lightly with temps 32-34. 2-3 inches was on the car and ground. Roads were bad too and that was in lower Pikesville near the city line. This even is never brought up or remembered. Really unique to have 2 very unusual events in the same year especially since they occurred in early Spring and Fall respectively. Both events were well forecasted for heavy rain and rapidly falling temps behind the fronts with exception of  no mention of a chance for a change to accumulating snow which came as surprise to everyone.

There was another similar notable storm in April of 2000.  Same setup, wave developed long a strong cold front after a lot of rain.  I think that one dropped 2-3" in this area...was like 6-12" up in northeast PA up through NY State.  

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was another similar notable storm in April of 2000.  Same setup, wave developed long a strong cold front after a lot of rain.  I think that one dropped 2-3" in this area...was like 6-12" up in northeast PA up through NY State.  

I remember a lot of systems like this when I was a kid and in school. We’d get early dismissal cause we went in and it was raining but midday it was pounding snow. 

[HighStakes]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was another similar notable storm in April of 2000.  Same setup, wave developed long a strong cold front after a lot of rain.  I think that one dropped 2-3" in this area...was like 6-12" up in northeast PA up through NY State.  

Yes, I remember that one well. Just a dusting in Reisterstown. Philly got 4. Also March 2005 although that one had legit arctic cold behind the front. This area got a solid 4-6. These events arent witnessed annually but they do occur a little more often than most think and they do produce with the caveat that our area is much more favorable. 

[Eskimo Joe]

21 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I remember a lot of systems like this when I was a kid and in school. We’d get early dismissal cause we went in and it was raining but midday it was pounding snow. 

 

17 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Yes, I remember that one well. Just a dusting in Reisterstown. Philly got 4. Also March 2005 although that one had legit arctic cold behind the front. This area got a solid 4-6. These events arent witnessed annually but they do occur a little more often than most think and they do produce with the caveat that our area is much more favorable. 

I remember that one. NBC 10 was the only TV station to forecast snow. Everyone else had rain. We got 5" of paste in the hills of Manayunk and it was a wreck. Loved it.

[TSSN+]

Bingo 

 

[NorthArlington101]

Uhh.. happy hour NAM doing something exciting

[NorthArlington101]

3k is in. What was exciting to me was seeing better offshore development from the LP... I'm not dumb enough to think there is any chance this goes crazy, but I have to imagine a redeveloping low in our primo spot cannot hurt? I'd assume that helps to keep precip around after the cold pushes in. Also doesn't hurt that it flips to snow faster on the 3k

[WxUSAF]

That 3k is the best look I’ve seen for this. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

That 3k is the best look I’ve seen for this. 

Good to know that I'm not crazy. Looking at it almost made me think we could back into something here... too bad its the NAM at 60.

[rjvanals]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

3k is in. What was exciting to me was seeing better offshore development from the LP... I'm not dumb enough to think there is any chance this goes crazy, but I have to imagine a redeveloping low in our primo spot cannot hurt? I'd assume that helps to keep precip around after the cold pushes in.

Big red flag for me is there’s no real arctic air behind the system. When it’s supposed to have flipped over in the metro it’s 34f in Pittsburgh. That’s not gonna do it imo