Stebo Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 I have a feeling we will be chasing ghosts all winter with the models, its almost not even worth investing any time beyond day 3-4. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 When weak/strung out is an option, its usually a pretty safe bet to go with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Stebo said: I have a feeling we will be chasing ghosts all winter with the models, its almost not even worth investing any time beyond day 3-4. It will be a mix of disappearing storms and sneaky surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: It will be a mix of disappearing storms and sneaky surprises. So in other words, the same as every winter... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Strike One. New rule on thread starts. Two strikes and your out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Baum said: Strike One. New rule on thread starts. Two strikes and your out. How about we hold off starting storm threads until it is within 3 days (i.e. worthless NAM range)??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Talk about a nothing burger. Looks like Minneapolis is in play for some light snow Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Initial thread to RIP in 30hrs. But not close to one of the great model collapses. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Baum said: Strike One. New rule on thread starts. Two strikes and your out. Yep, I would be fine with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Lightning said: How about we hold off starting storm threads until it is within 3 days (i.e. worthless NAM range)??? I think this is good plan, having a "rule" will help with the urge to start a thread the second it feels semi plausible for an event to occur. My issue is that the thought of not starting a thread early enough for an event that does happen gives me anxiety 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Cary67 said: Initial thread to RIP in 30hrs. But not close to one of the great model collapses. was really incredible the way the wheels fell off on that one, perma soured me on the euro lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 well we all got teased on this one..... there were a few model runs that were even burying us on the southern flanks of the sub. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 What makes it even worse/funnier is that it doesn't even look like the leading wave is gonna produce any snow for the upper midwest either as even thats turned into a strung out mess. Usually for us in Chicago/detroit, minneapolis and upper midwest gotta get their snow first as they see the colder temps earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Cary67 said: Initial thread to RIP in 30hrs. But not close to one of the great model collapses. The rug pull of all rug pulls. Models are seemingly worse at 120 hrs than they were a few years ago. GFS "improvements" have really turned it into a steaming shit pile. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 8 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: The rug pull of all rug pulls. Models are seemingly worse at 120 hrs than they were a few years ago. GFS "improvements" have really turned it into a steaming shit pile. All deterministic models are shit for the most part. GraphCast had a much better handle on the overall large-scale pattern for this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 I wish there was a way to look at models that have been decommissioned. I seriously think the AVN back in the early 2000s was way better than the latest few GFS versions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 It seems like the models used to mostly under develop storms. This used to show itself in the form of the well known nw trend that seemed prevalent as recently as about 10 years ago. Now, it seems to have gone completely opposite. Is this due to attempts to fix that particular issue with models? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 29 minutes ago, rainsucks said: All deterministic models are shit for the most part. GraphCast had a much better handle on the overall large-scale pattern for this timeframe. Just what is GraphCast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 25 minutes ago, bowtie` said: Just what is GraphCast? It seems basically to be an AI composite of weather data/other models which is interesting, because that's more or less what I considered normal weather models to be already. Kind of cool if it actually works well which I don't see how it would be a downgrade in any way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st0rmbrkr Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Why does it matter if a thread is started and the storm doesn't come to fruition? Is there a limit to the number of threads on this Forum? Is there nothing to be learned or discussed from a system or model that changes? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 20 minutes ago, st0rmbrkr said: Why does it matter if a thread is started and the storm doesn't come to fruition? Is there a limit to the number of threads on this Forum? Is there nothing to be learned or discussed from a system or model that changes? Just our pride that gets hurt methinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Storm thread deserves an expected snowfall map. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 8 hours ago, st0rmbrkr said: Why does it matter if a thread is started and the storm doesn't come to fruition? Is there a limit to the number of threads on this Forum? Is there nothing to be learned or discussed from a system or model that changes? You have a point, but you're taking the banter too seriously. People are just frustrated about the general pattern, and the evolution of the storm that thread was created for only added to the frustration. People tend ot become irrationally flippant when they're frustrated. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 11:31 AM, Stevo6899 said: What makes it even worse/funnier is that it doesn't even look like the leading wave is gonna produce any snow for the upper midwest either as even thats turned into a strung out mess. Usually for us in Chicago/detroit, minneapolis and upper midwest gotta get their snow first as they see the colder temps earlier. fooled u 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 3 hours ago, RogueWaves said: fooled u Instead of upper midwest, I should've said further east into Wisconsin and u.p. where models for a few days were showing decent snows there, now just rain lol. But yea atleast someone is seeing snow. If it ain't gonna snow, I'll take days like today in the 50s. Sun felt great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 fooled ulol upper terrain. Shouldn’t that be what happens in October not December? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 White rain most of today but the snow started sticking around 3pm and everything is pasted in white (briefly) again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now