madwx Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Potential for winter excitement. Antecedent airmass will be mild but looking like a dynamic system so heavy snow is possible somewhere 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 12z GFS and gem basically held from their morning runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Hope you guys do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 euro more like you're a ho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Still too early to lock in a certain scenario, but the 12z guidance consensus suggests less of a snow threat for the LOT CWA and a severe threat potentially extending into a portion of the CWA on Saturday PM. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Potential secondaries and low pressures riding along the front are always tough to forecast. Gets wrapped up a lil too late for anything significant for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Still too early to lock in a certain scenario, but the 12z guidance consensus suggests less of a snow threat for the LOT CWA and a severe threat potentially extending into a portion of the CWA on Saturday PM. Seems like both the GFS and Euro are wanting to take the low right over the CWA. Cold air ends up late to the party. Ensembles are still all over the freaking place with some well north and some well south. Could be in worse positioning as this one gets dialed in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Two word model assessment: Balls. Kick. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Might have to turn this into a late season SVR thread if the trend keeps up... Seriously though. Went from snowmaker potential to nearly 60 degree dews getting advected in. Go figure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 20 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I'll go with Lucky 13 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, geddyweather said: Might have to turn this into a late season SVR thread if the trend keeps up... Seriously though. Went from snowmaker potential to nearly 60 degree dews getting advected in. Go figure. It's December and in the words of Horace Greeley, "Go west young man". While Toledo has certainly cashed in before on early season storms, looking at the maps @Chinookhas on his website of past snowstorms the one common thread has been an airmass where temps are 10 degrees and below with a Miller C type track. Those two things happen and there's definitely a chance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 I'd have waited another day or so on this one, due to the pattern. The 18z GFS is what you'd expect to get in this progressive pattern for much of our region...a glorified FROPA. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 12Z Euro had a nice little surprise redevelopment for the southern lakes folks. Won't pan out but nice to see everyone is still in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 4 hours ago, nwohweather said: It's December and in the words of Horace Greeley, "Go west young man". While Toledo has certainly cashed in before on early season storms, looking at the maps @Chinookhas on his website of past snowstorms the one common thread has been an airmass where temps are 10 degrees and below with a Miller C type track. Those two things happen and there's definitely a chance Dude I saw so much snow out in Colorado, I don't even care. It's possible I'm still shoveling from 2021. I went to say goodbye to Cameron Pass in June 2022 and I made a couple of snowballs. But then again, Toledo had verifiable ground blizzard conditions a year ago... in one of the least snowy years ever. Actually it's nice to see green grass in every neighborhood without dozens of sprinklers on every lawn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 21 minutes ago, Chinook said: Dude I saw so much snow out in Colorado, I don't even care. It's possible I'm still shoveling from 2021. I went to say goodbye to Cameron Pass in June 2022 and I made a couple of snowballs. But then again, Toledo had verifiable ground blizzard conditions a year ago... in one of the least snowy years ever. Actually it's nice to see green grass in every neighborhood without dozens of sprinklers on every lawn. Isn't that around 12,000 feet in elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 6, 2023 Author Share Posted December 6, 2023 3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: I'd have waited another day or so on this one, due to the pattern. The 18z GFS is what you'd expect to get in this progressive pattern for much of our region...a glorified FROPA. you lose some and you lose some other ones 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 3 hours ago, nwohweather said: Isn't that around 12,000 feet in elevation? Cameron is at 10276 and accumulates a lot of snow since it's in the north. I've seen two moose there and have heard others tell me they've seen moose. Some of the highest passes are 12000 like Independence. Monarch is 11300, Rocky Mountain Natl Park has 12108 but that's not a high-volume US highway for shipping and commerce. Berthoud pass is at 11300 on US 40, a main commerce road. If you've got a well-built SUV, and a lot of experience, you can drive an old mining road nearly all the way to Mt. Antero where the road stops at 13800. Then I-70 and US-6 almost go in the same spot but I-70 tunnels through Loveland Mountain (not to be confused with Loveland city.) If you like weather observations from METARS, K0CO (yes, that's right, mixed numbers and letters) is above Berthoud pass and pretty much just has a freezing blizzard all the time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 GFS went from having the surface low over Indiana at FH126 to having it over Green Bay at FH084 on the 06Z run that just came in. If it was April, I'd love that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Wake up this morning. Look at the models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Models definitely trending more and more to glorified frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: GFS went from having the surface low over Indiana at FH126 to having it over Green Bay at FH084 on the 06Z run that just came in. If it was April, I'd love that trend. In April the surface low goes from putting us in warm sector to being 1000 miles south of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 14 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: I'd have waited another day or so on this one, due to the pattern. The 18z GFS is what you'd expect to get in this progressive pattern for much of our region...a glorified FROPA. This is what I am expecting as well, southern piece is too slow northern piece too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 49 minutes ago, Stebo said: This is what I am expecting as well, southern piece is too slow northern piece too fast. 2 for 2 on the models flashing the "big phase tease" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Continuing my trend of obnoxious optimism... At least it happened now and not on the 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 6 hours ago, Lightning said: Wake up this morning. Look at the models. Yeah, now I'm in play all of a sudden, at least with GFS. Euro keeps it a little E of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now