Winter '23-'24 Piss and Moan/Banter Thread

[michsnowfreak]

17 minutes ago, roardog said:

There’s a lot of over reaction in here. The pattern we had this winter and last winter would have resulted in very warm winters even if it was 1895. When we start seeing above normal temps in “cold” patterns then we can start to worry that it will never snow or be cold again. I mean look how cold it was over the entire western half of the country just last winter. Most of this sub had a cold winter just two years ago and that’s after a warm December. It’ll get cold again if the pattern supports it. 

Exactly! I have estimated this winter with finish 4th warmest on record for Detroit, but the top 3 (1881-82, 1931-32, 1918-19) have remained comfortably on top for good reason.

[Chambana]

A string of clunkers has happened in virtually every decade since records began, it’s nothing new, for every string of clunkers comes a string of harsh winters. 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 were disasters, although 2012-2013 redeemed itself in February/March but December and January were torch, as well as the first half of February. 
 

2013-2014 brought what many of us describe as a legendary winter, one I’ll tell my grandkids about. 2014-2015 brought an extremely harsh second half of winter. It’s all cyclical.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

There’s a lot of over reaction in here. The pattern we had this winter and last winter would have resulted in very warm winters even if it was 1895. When we start seeing above normal temps in “cold” patterns then we can start to worry that it will never snow or be cold again. I mean look how cold it was over the entire western half of the country just last winter. Most of this sub had a cold winter just two years ago and that’s after a warm December. It’ll get cold again if the pattern supports it. 

The string for Cleveland, Erie and Syracuse is unlike anything since recording history began.

Syracuse averages 127.8" of snow per year. Here are the snow totals the last 5 yrs.

2019-2020: 87.6"

2020-2021: 73.3"

2021-2022: 76"

2022-2023: 65.6"

2023-2024: 34.5" (so far)

Syracuse has never gone more than 3 yrs without getting to 100" of snowfall, this year will be their 5th consecutive year.

[Chambana]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The string for Cleveland, Erie and Syracuse is unlike anything since recording history began.

Syracuse averages 127.8" of snow per year. Here are the snow totals the last 5 yrs.

2019-2020: 87.6"

2020-2021: 73.3"

2021-2022: 76"

2022-2023: 65.6"

2023-2024: 34.5" (so far)

Syracuse has never gone more than 3 yrs without getting to 100" of snowfall, this year will be their 5th consecutive year.

Glad to see you pop in again. 34.5” for Syracuse is absolute bananas. 

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Glad to see you pop in again. 34.5” for Syracuse is absolute bananas. 

They’re 303” below normal last 5 winters. (This year isn’t over yet)

I believe Erie Pa and Cleveland are just as bad. 

I’ve been extremely lucky here with 3 massive lake effect events. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Eries average is 104.5” per year, Cleveland is 63.8”

That’s a 10 year average of 78” at Erie and 40” at Cleveland. 

[DocATL]

The string for Cleveland, Erie and Syracuse is unlike anything since recording history began.
Syracuse averages 127.8" of snow per year. Here are the snow totals the last 5 yrs.
2019-2020: 87.6"
2020-2021: 73.3"
2021-2022: 76"
2022-2023: 65.6"
2023-2024: 34.5" (so far)
Syracuse has never gone more than 3 yrs without getting to 100" of snowfall, this year will be their 5th consecutive year.

This is more than just cyclical.


.

[michsnowfreak]

15 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

They’re 303” below normal last 5 winters. (This year isn’t over yet)

I believe Erie Pa and Cleveland are just as bad. 

I’ve been extremely lucky here with 3 massive lake effect events. 

Thats crazy. Does syracuse usually get a lot of LES?

Looks like this is Cleveland and Erie's worst 10-year stretch since the 1920s-30s, but that stretch was worse.

Ohio has been in quite a snow rut. You can include Toledo, as multiple events seem to diverse at the MI/OH line, esp the last two years (plus TOL is actually well south and west of the actual city, so I dont usually pay attention to that area, but the last 2 years have been crazy low). 

[TheClimateChanger]

17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The string for Cleveland, Erie and Syracuse is unlike anything since recording history began.

Syracuse averages 127.8" of snow per year. Here are the snow totals the last 5 yrs.

2019-2020: 87.6"

2020-2021: 73.3"

2021-2022: 76"

2022-2023: 65.6"

2023-2024: 34.5" (so far)

Syracuse has never gone more than 3 yrs without getting to 100" of snowfall, this year will be their 5th consecutive year.

Some people have a very myopic POV here. This is the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley sub-forum, not the Detroit area sub-forum.

Anyways, for further context as to how awful the recent snowfall history has been at Cleveland:

Last year was third least on record, and this winter is still below last [albeit with some time left to shoot up]. Moreover, it's worth pointing out during the 1920s and 1930s, the average was only about 40"-ish a winter - obviously impacted by the downtown, rooftop siting, and different snow measuring techniques and procedures. Since moving to the airport, the average has always been mid 50s to mid 60s [briefly high 60s] range [in inches per year]. If we limit this to the Cleveland airport site, the lowest of record prior to the most recent two winters is 30.4" from 1948-1949.

But it gets even better, there was a dedicated observer near downtown Cleveland who was recording temperature, precipitation and snowfall all the way back to 1854-55. The lowest total he had measured was 22.6 inches, from 1865-66 [which was actually a cold winter]. Unfortunately, I do not have all of the seasonal numbers, but we can conclude every other winter was at least 22.7 inches.

So I mean, we can conclude the 22.7 inches observed last year was 4th least dating back to at least 1854-1855, and two of the higher ranked ones were 0.1 inches less and 1.2 inches less [largely negligible differences over the course of the winter]. And this is even ignoring the impact of moving the station out of the city, and utilizing snow boards and 6-hourly measurements in more recent decades. I mean that's pretty bad. And beyond the early 1850s, you're heading well into Little Ice Age territory, so it's probably unlikely that there would have been many milder winters prior to that era.

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Erie's not much better. With records dating to 1892-93, pretty rough. Note there are errors in xMacis, including showing 12.1" in 1943-44 and 22.8" in 1942-43. Actual values were 48.5" [including 4th most on record in October - 8.2"] in 1943-44, and 47.0" in 1942-43. The value of 26.5" shown by xMacis for 1931-32 is missing the snowstorm of 3.8" on March 31, 1932. 1928-29 is missing a few inches. Etc...

The correct values are given below. Again, this is ignoring any site changes or changes in snow measuring techniques over the course of the 20th century. This was a big issue in 2017-2018, when it was discovered the observer was clearing the snow board hourly resulting in wildly inflated totals relative to what was actually accumulating on the ground.

Since 1948-49, the lowest total at the airport is 41.2" from the winter of 1982-83. In more recent decades, 46.9" was observed in 2011-2012, 48.4" in 1997-1998, and 52.0" last winter. So yeah, definitely nothing remotely close to the current winter since at least 1950. Let alone back to back duds. Also, of the current tally of 22.3", 2.3" was from a fluke October snowfall, and so only 20.0" have occurred since November 1 at Erie.

[BuffaloWeather]

46 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thats crazy. Does syracuse usually get a lot of LES?

Looks like this is Cleveland and Erie's worst 10-year stretch since the 1920s-30s, but that stretch was worse.

Ohio has been in quite a snow rut. You can include Toledo, as multiple events seem to diverse at the MI/OH line, esp the last two years (plus TOL is actually well south and west of the actual city, so I dont usually pay attention to that area, but the last 2 years have been crazy low). 

That data is super sketchy in 20s/30s. Not valid imo 

[roardog]

These snowfall deficits are still all pattern driven though. The pattern has been bad for big snow for years now for Ohio to the north and east into parts of Ontario like Toronto. There’s also probably some bad luck in there too. 
 

 Since the PDO went back negative after the super Nino of ‘15-‘16, any +PNA patterns have been very short lived during the cold season. There’s also been very little sustained high latitude blocking. Once you get south and east of Michigan, it’s tough to keep sustained winter weather with a -PNA and no blocking. 
 

  I believe Jan and Feb 2022 had a +PNA in the means and guess what? Most of of this sub ended up with a cold winter. Snow is obviously fluky so a cold winter doesn’t always guarantee a lot of snow of course. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Here's Syracuse, NY. XMacis has a ton of missing data from the early years.

However, the Monthly Weather Review shows the correct figures for those years:

Again, the average was quite a bit less than the modern values, probably in part attributable to site location changes and measuring techniques. But also there's likely been an actual, significant increase in snowfall downwind of the lakes due to the decreasing ice coverage season/warmer water temperatures.

Anyways, using the corrected values, I put together a list of the top ten least snowy winters for Syracuse [neglecting any site changes, snow board impacts, etc..]. With the current winter shown for comparison. Records date to 1902. Last year appears to have been the 13th least on record, just below the infamous mild winter of 1918-1919. In recent decades, only 2001-2002 & 2011-2012 had less snowfall.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Here's Syracuse, NY. XMacis has a ton of missing data from the early years.

However, the Monthly Weather Review shows the correct figures for those years:

Again, the average was quite a bit less than the modern values, probably in part attributable to site location changes and measuring techniques. But also there's likely been an actual, significant increase in snowfall downwind of the lakes due to the decreasing ice coverage season/warmer water temperatures.

Anyways, using the corrected values, I put together a list of the top ten least snowy winters for Syracuse [neglecting any site changes, snow board impacts, etc..]. With the current winter shown for comparison. Records date to 1902. Last year appears to have been the 13th least on record, just below the infamous mild winter of 1918-1919. In recent decades, only 2001-2002 & 2011-2012 had less snowfall.

 

Syracuse moved their recording location similar to Buffalo. They moved it to a far more snowy location 10 miles north of the city. Any data pre 1940 shouldn't be used for Buffalo, and any data pre 1949 shouldn't be used for Syracuse. 

Prior to 1949, official Syracuse weather reports including snowfall were recorded in downtown Syracuse.

https://www.localsyr.com/weather/historic-lack-of-snowfall-in-syracuse-this-winter/

[TheClimateChanger]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Syracuse moved their recording location similar to Buffalo. They moved it to a far more snowy location 10 miles north of the city. Any data pre 1940 shouldn't be used for Buffalo, and any data pre 1949 shouldn't be used for Syracuse. 

Prior to 1949, official Syracuse weather reports including snowfall were recorded in downtown Syracuse.

https://www.localsyr.com/weather/historic-lack-of-snowfall-in-syracuse-this-winter/

Yeah, no doubt site location changes can make a huge difference. I've pointed this out here, but received pushback from some of the southeast Michigan crew. I don't think they realize how snowfall totals can easily vary by a foot or two in the snowbelts in a matter of miles or over a couple hundred feet of elevation. 

I just included all of the corrected data [as noted, xMacis is missing a lot of the snowfall pre-1940] to provide a useful comparison. Even neglecting the bias introduced by location and procedural changes, last winter was 13th least in the threaded record and this winter is well on track to place in the top 5. Still over 3" under the current least snowy winter (1931-1932). In fact, post-1935, only the winters of 2001-2002 & 2011-2012 had less snowfall in Syracuse than last winter.

[Stevo6899]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

These snowfall deficits are still all pattern driven though. The pattern has been bad for big snow for years now for Ohio to the north and east into parts of Ontario like Toronto. There’s also probably some bad luck in there too. 
 

 Since the PDO went back negative after the super Nino of ‘15-‘16, any +PNA patterns have been very short lived during the cold season. There’s also been very little sustained high latitude blocking. Once you get south and east of Michigan, it’s tough to keep sustained winter weather with a -PNA and no blocking. 
 

  I believe Jan and Feb 2022 had a +PNA in the means and guess what? Most of of this sub ended up with a cold winter. Snow is obviously fluky so a cold winter doesn’t always guarantee a lot of snow of course. 

The lack of snows for toronto is similar to detroits, location. It's hard enough to get a low pressure to track in a favorable spot , just west of the apps. When you do, a large number of them are prone to miller b's, losing energy to a coastal.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, roardog said:

These snowfall deficits are still all pattern driven though. The pattern has been bad for big snow for years now for Ohio to the north and east into parts of Ontario like Toronto. There’s also probably some bad luck in there too. 
 

 Since the PDO went back negative after the super Nino of ‘15-‘16, any +PNA patterns have been very short lived during the cold season. There’s also been very little sustained high latitude blocking. Once you get south and east of Michigan, it’s tough to keep sustained winter weather with a -PNA and no blocking. 
 

  I believe Jan and Feb 2022 had a +PNA in the means and guess what? Most of of this sub ended up with a cold winter. Snow is obviously fluky so a cold winter doesn’t always guarantee a lot of snow of course. 

Agree. We ALL did great during several big winters from the mid-2000s to mid-2010s, but the ones that are not region-wide blockbusters or region-wide stinkers tend to have pockets of good and bad snowwise, regardless of temperature departure. Prior to this winter, the previous 4 winters southeast Michigan overall did pretty average while ohio was well below (except '20-21). On the flip side I remember a few 1990s winters where cleveland did very well (at least partially thanks to the lake) and we did very meh.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Syracuse moved their recording location similar to Buffalo. They moved it to a far more snowy location 10 miles north of the city. Any data pre 1940 shouldn't be used for Buffalo, and any data pre 1949 shouldn't be used for Syracuse. 

Prior to 1949, official Syracuse weather reports including snowfall were recorded in downtown Syracuse.

https://www.localsyr.com/weather/historic-lack-of-snowfall-in-syracuse-this-winter/

Lake effect locations moving observation spots can make a huge difference, and should be noted in the local climate records. Marquette only has records to 1961, but it is in the snowiest location in that area. If they actually kept the records in the city of Marquette the snowfall would be much lower.

Moving locations is usually a non issue in the longrun for non-lake belt spots though, snow wise. 

[Stevo6899]

18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lake effect locations moving observation spots can make a huge difference, and should be noted in the local climate records. Marquette only has records to 1961, but it is in the snowiest location in that area. If they actually kept the records in the city of Marquette the snowfall would be much lower.

Moving locations is usually a non issue in the longrun for non-lake belt spots though, snow wise. 

Josh, whats the record for most consecutive days in february above 50 in detroit? I'd ask 45 but I'd imagine its harder to get stats that way. Obviously warm spells can happen in winter here and it seems most of the time lately they've happened in January. February's have been rocking around here winter wise in recent years and just curious. Looks like atleast 4 in a row starting Sunday. Thanks. Also looks like there's potentially 8+ days straight of atleast 50 starting next weekend as we head in march. Atleast 10 degrees above avg for early march (40°).

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Josh, whats the record for most consecutive days in february above 50 in detroit? I'd ask 45 but I'd imagine its harder to get stats that way. Obviously warm spells can happen in winter here and it seems most of the time lately they've happened in January. February's have been rocking around here winter wise in recent years and just curious. Looks like atleast 4 in a row starting Sunday. Thanks. Also looks like there's potentially 8+ days straight of atleast 50 starting next weekend as we head in march. Atleast 10 degrees above avg for early march (40°).

Record is 8 consecutive days in 2017. The most 50+ days in Feb:

12- 2017

11- 1976

9- 1880

9- 1882

8- 1930

8- 2000

8- 2018

8- 2023

7- 1984

6- 1932

6- 1938

6- 1954

6- 2016

 

[Chicago Storm]

useless record ruining stat-padding snow tonight.

[buckeye]

10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

useless record ruining stat-padding snow tonight.

I’m at OHare right now and that useless ruining stat-padding snow is underway.  Heading back to cmh hoping no delays.

[Chicago Storm]

6 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I’m at OHare right now and that useless ruining stat-padding snow is underway.  Heading back to cmh hoping no delays.

greetings from the south end of the airport.

[mimillman]

Good practice for April 

[radarman]

I was on the runway at Chicago Midway and snow came in pretty hard.  We sat there for 45 mins or so and it looked like 1-2 accumulated on grass in that time

[mississaugasnow]

The next few weeks look pretty toasty. Currently 2nd least snowiest season at YYZ. Need 2" to get into 3rd 

 

[Malacka11]

Just had the first fly of the year land on my head. New February record just dropped guys

[bowtie`]

8 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Just had the first fly of the year land on my head. New February record just dropped guys

The real question is will TheCimateChanger now post a three chart expose` about head flies from Gaylord Michigan in 1887?

[bowtie`]

Someone, somewhere said something about Daffodils starting to poke up. I thought that as silly till I went out today and actually saw some spikes showing themselves here.

 

[Baum]

Climate change it's real and it's spectacular