Winter '23-'24 Piss and Moan/Banter Thread

[Snowstorms]

20 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Have had 0.3" here in the past 29 days.  It's been done lol

Wow. Yeah you're right and tonights GFS has zero for the next 15.  

At this point I'm hoping for a full on torch for spring. 

[DocATL]

So last winter was a Nina and Chicago hardly had any snow. This year in a Nino we get two weeks of winter. Not sure what’s normal at this point.


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[Powerball]

14 hours ago, DocATL said:

So last winter was a Nina and Chicago hardly had any snow. This year in a Nino we get two weeks of winter. Not sure what’s normal at this point.


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As mentioned before, this sub's kind of paying the piper for the string of good winters in the late 2000s / early 2010s.

Everything has a equilibrium.

[Snowstorms]

8 minutes ago, DocATL said:

So last winter was a Nina and Chicago hardly had any snow. This year in a Nino we get two weeks of winter. Not sure what’s normal at this point.


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This winter sucks. 

2019-20 we had a neutral and it was also warm. 

[DocATL]

This winter sucks. 
2019-20 we had a neutral and it was also warm. 

Yeah from an ENSO perspective I have no clue what’s good anymore. At this point, we might as well reap the benefits of an early spring. It appears March will be continuing the warm trend.

[cyclone77]

'24-'25 winter will be rockin'

[WestMichigan]

9 hours ago, DocATL said:

Yeah from an ENSO perspective I have no clue what’s good anymore. At this point, we might as well reap the benefits of an early spring. It appears March will be continuing the warm trend.

Everyone is saying this, bu tliving in West Michigan this would most likely be an agricultural disaster like the Morch everyone keeps rooting for.  Early blooms followed by a frost are very rough on this area so while I appreciate everyone's desire for warmth, please no.

[Snowstorms]

@mississaugasnow As of yesterday YYZ is at 0.1C for DJF making it the warmest winter on record (since 1938). The final 9 days will likely seal the deal with the impending warm up. 

Of the top 5 warmest winters on record at YYZ, all 5 have occurred since 2001-02 with 4/5 since 2011-12. And 9 out of the top 10 warmest have occurred since 1998. That's fucked up. You can only ascertain a portion of the warming due to UHI, but the rest of it is climate change. Kind of scary how fast winters are warming. 

If we continue on this trend, at some point, snow will play catch up. We saw that last winter and 2019-20 with all the marginal snow events, but this winter kind of exposed that more. It's only a matter of time. Hope nature finds its equilibrium and things shift. 

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Everyone is saying this, bu tliving in West Michigan this would most likely be an agricultural disaster like the Morch everyone keeps rooting for.  Early blooms followed by a frost are very rough on this area so while I appreciate everyone's desire for warmth, please no.

Weird. Great Lakes are supposed to keep things cold enough to prevent premature blooming before the last killing frost of spring. That's why there are so many orchards here, despite the latitude.

[nwohweather]

14 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

This winter sucks. 

2019-20 we had a neutral and it was also warm. 

Can't agree here. It'd be nice to see more legitimate snow chances, but it's been very sunny which is certainly a welcome change to the brutal harshness winter can have. Warm & cloudy would be absolutely brutal, I'm glad we've avoided that

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, DocATL said:

So last winter was a Nina and Chicago hardly had any snow. This year in a Nino we get two weeks of winter. Not sure what’s normal at this point.


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11 hours ago, Powerball said:

As mentioned before, this sub's kind of paying the piper for the string of good winters in the late 2000s / early 2010s.

Everything has a equillibrium.

Powerball is correct. Many cities in this sub had a record stretch of snow from about 2008-2015, and also a few great winters pre-2008 as well. As someone who is a local climate "expert" you always get somewhat of a balancing out, even if not fully. Averages do sway up and down over time, but we were far above our climo from the mid-00s to mid-10s.

 

All that said, what I CAN tell you regarding ENSO is that most of the enso states (3 strengths of nino, neutral, 3 strengths of nina) have a higher probability of a certain type of winter, but usually with a few exceptions. The ONLY state that is a pretty much guarantee is what we had this year, a strong Nino. Some are better than others, but NOT ONCE have we had a good winter in a strong Nino, and this dates back to the 1870s. You can bank on a warm winter overall, and just hope that you get a few periods of fun. Meanwhile, a weak El Nino is often a cold and snowy winter here. 

 

A switch from El Nino to La Nina is often welcome news for our region. La Ninas often, though not always, are snowy, stormy winters. They also have a tendancy to be more front-loaded, though again, this is not always the case.

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

'24-'25 winter will be rockin'

Bring on La Nina

[DocATL]

Powerball is correct. Many cities in this sub had a record stretch of snow from about 2008-2015, and also a few great winters pre-2008 as well. As someone who is a local climate "expert" you always get somewhat of a balancing out, even if not fully. Averages do sway up and down over time, but we were far above our climo from the mid-00s to mid-10s.
 
All that said, what I CAN tell you regarding ENSO is that most of the enso states (3 strengths of nino, neutral, 3 strengths of nina) have a higher probability of a certain type of winter, but usually with a few exceptions. The ONLY state that is a pretty much guarantee is what we had this year, a strong Nino. Some are better than others, but NOT ONCE have we had a good winter in a strong Nino, and this dates back to the 1870s. You can bank on a warm winter overall, and just hope that you get a few periods of fun. Meanwhile, a weak El Nino is often a cold and snowy winter here. 
 
A switch from El Nino to La Nina is often welcome news for our region. La Ninas often, though not always, are snowy, stormy winters. They also have a tendancy to be more front-loaded, though again, this is not always the case.

Great post! Thanks!


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[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Everyone is saying this, bu tliving in West Michigan this would most likely be an agricultural disaster like the Morch everyone keeps rooting for.  Early blooms followed by a frost are very rough on this area so while I appreciate everyone's desire for warmth, please no.

I dont get the love for a freak warm March ala 2012. Thats why I have no problem rooting for what others consider miserable spring cold. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Can't agree here. It'd be nice to see more legitimate snow chances, but it's been very sunny which is certainly a welcome change to the brutal harshness winter can have. Warm & cloudy would be absolutely brutal, I'm glad we've avoided that

February has been quite sunny, but December & January were extremely cloudy, at least in MI.

[Snowstorms]

4 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Can't agree here. It'd be nice to see more legitimate snow chances, but it's been very sunny which is certainly a welcome change to the brutal harshness winter can have. Warm & cloudy would be absolutely brutal, I'm glad we've avoided that

December till mid Jan was cloudy and warm. That changed since late January when the omega block set up and skies cleared up. A nice change from where we started and what we've experienced over the last few years. Warm and cloudy is just ugly.

[Snowstorms]

17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

Powerball is correct. Many cities in this sub had a record stretch of snow from about 2008-2015, and also a few great winters pre-2008 as well. As someone who is a local climate "expert" you always get somewhat of a balancing out, even if not fully. Averages do sway up and down over time, but we were far above our climo from the mid-00s to mid-10s.

 

All that said, what I CAN tell you regarding ENSO is that most of the enso states (3 strengths of nino, neutral, 3 strengths of nina) have a higher probability of a certain type of winter, but usually with a few exceptions. The ONLY state that is a pretty much guarantee is what we had this year, a strong Nino. Some are better than others, but NOT ONCE have we had a good winter in a strong Nino, and this dates back to the 1870s. You can bank on a warm winter overall, and just hope that you get a few periods of fun. Meanwhile, a weak El Nino is often a cold and snowy winter here. 

 

A switch from El Nino to La Nina is often welcome news for our region. La Ninas often, though not always, are snowy, stormy winters. They also have a tendancy to be more front-loaded, though again, this is not always the case.

I do agree we had a nice stretch of cold/snowy winters for a period of time between 2008-2015 and a few others since the start of the century (2000-01, 2002-03, and 2004-05).

But the severity of those cold winters don't compare to the severity of warm winters we've experienced since the late 90's and I'm not just talking locally but nationally. 2023-24 is about to be the warmest winter on record across the nation and is on the heels of other recent warm winters like 2022-23, 2019-20, 2016-17, 2015-16, 2011-12, 2005-06, etc. All of these winters are different ENSO types too. 

Maybe certain locales may not be breaking warm records but in broader context, it is historic given the shear number, longevity, and severity of warm winters. It isn't always about the records but rather the continuing (+) anomalies.

If trends continue, at some point, snow will catch up. Can't constantly have marginal snow events as our climo should be and has supported colder snow. 

[Powerball]

26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont get the love for a freak warm March ala 2012. Thats why I have no problem rooting for what others consider miserable spring cold. 

It probably works the same way when some root for a warm Fall (I.E. October 1963) that others would find miserable.

[mississaugasnow]

52 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont get the love for a freak warm March ala 2012. Thats why I have no problem rooting for what others consider miserable spring cold. 

haha thats because you'd enjoy an April snowstorm. I find March 2012 interesting from a weather standpoint. Overall though I enjoy warm springs and hot summers. Im not a big fan of 30s in early May with wet snow the same way most here dont like 50s in January and sun. 

[mississaugasnow]

March Madness basketball and the first 60s (where I live) go hand in hand. Hearing the CBS jingle and seeing sun and 60F is amazing. 

Hopefully it's a much hotter summer here compared to last year. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I do agree we had a nice stretch of cold/snowy winters for a period of time between 2008-2015 and a few others since the start of the century (2000-01, 2002-03, and 2004-05).

But the severity of those cold winters don't compare to the severity of warm winters we've experienced since the late 90's and I'm not just talking locally but nationally. 2023-24 is about to be the warmest winter on record across the nation and is on the heels of other recent warm winters like 2022-23, 2019-20, 2016-17, 2015-16, 2011-12, 2005-06, etc. All of these winters are different ENSO types too. 

Maybe certain locales may not be breaking warm records but in broader context, it is historic given the shear number, longevity, and severity of warm winters. It isn't always about the records but rather the continuing (+) anomalies.

If trends continue, at some point, snow will catch up. Can't constantly have marginal snow events as our climo should be and has supported colder snow. 

I was talking specifically snow. The amount of snowfall and the number of large snowstorms during that timeframe I discussed FAR exceeded longterm averages. Again, to the point it was unlike anything in our period of record. While not as extreme, snowcover days were also comfortably above longterm averages. A winter with avg or slightly colder than avg temps and a lot of snow will absolutely seem more severe than a winter with well below avg temps and light snowfall. And with colder winters you run the risk of suppression and less snowfall.

These last 2 winters were far warmer than average and absolutely not the norm. Snow climatology is a continually evolving thing, just like everything else in the weather. What happens in the coming winters all we can do is wait and see.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

It probably works the same way when some root for a warm Fall (I.E. October 1963) that others would find miserable.

 

1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

haha thats because you'd enjoy an April snowstorm. I find March 2012 interesting from a weather standpoint. Overall though I enjoy warm springs and hot summers. Im not a big fan of 30s in early May with wet snow the same way most here dont like 50s in January and sun. 

Fall is one of my favorite times of year, So yes, a 1963 type torch would disgust me. But a 2012 type of march is pretty much one of the only things in weather where you are just asking for agricultural disaster. For things to bloom so advanced so early, freeze damage risk is huge. Most fruit crops are grown in rural areas where temps plummet on cold nights. So let's say you have a frosty 31° on April 28th in Detroit. It's probably 22° at Joe Blows orchard. The only two times I know of when things bloomed so ungodly early were 1945 & 2012, and each saw ruined crops due to freeze.

[mississaugasnow]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

Fall is one of my favorite times of year, So yes, a 1963 type torch would disgust me. But a 2012 type of march is pretty much one of the only things in weather where you are just asking for agricultural disaster. For things to bloom so advanced so early, freeze damage risk is huge. Most fruit crops are grown in rural areas where temps plummet on cold nights. So let's say you have a frosty 31° on April 28th in Detroit. It's probably 22° at Joe Blows orchard. The only two times I know of when things bloomed so ungodly early were 1945 & 2012, and each saw ruined crops due to freeze.

Yep, I agree that the agricultural impacts awful. Spring is up to SE Virginia and nearing the KY/TN line. The next two weeks should see it make some big gains north 

[Chinook]

anybody getting cold this winter?

 

[IWXwx]

Southeastern Iowa is the only area in the entire subforum that can't complain about lack of snowfall.

[A-L-E-K]

 

[Lightning]

For those who don't click on that link.  That picture is from last year.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

If one image could tell the whole story…

[DocATL]

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[roardog]

There’s a lot of over reaction in here. The pattern we had this winter and last winter would have resulted in very warm winters even if it was 1895. When we start seeing above normal temps in “cold” patterns then we can start to worry that it will never snow or be cold again. I mean look how cold it was over the entire western half of the country just last winter. Most of this sub had a cold winter just two years ago and that’s after a warm December. It’ll get cold again if the pattern supports it.