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Winter '23-'24 Piss and Moan/Banter Thread


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4 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Theres a big cluster of around 27-31" in the 6-10 least snowy winters for Toronto. 

Not trying to cherry pick data as its the easiest right now to grab but from 2013 to 2023 (11 seasons) Toronto had 6 Aprils record under 1"  2 Aprils record 1-2" 3 Aprils record 3-8" (2016 was 8") 

April always sees snow but it's mostly under 2". Still counts towards the yearly snowfall no doubt but the odds are heavily against anything more than a coating 

Yeah I agree. 52-53, 06-07, 09-10, and 11-12 were unusually low and snowless winters. Almost anomalous when considering the other top 6. I hate to group 09-10 in there, even though stats say otherwise, cause that winter was just bad luck/timing for us in Toronto. Many places south and north of us did decent that winter.

That big cluster includes 15-16 and 01-02. 15-16 got saved by that April snowstorm and 01-02 got saved by that late January storm that dropped 8". Both were incredibly warm.

Some other historically bad winters include 1932-33 where only 25.7" fell. And 1936-37 was pretty bad too. Only 13" fell between DJF combined. 1937-38 was bad too. 

You're right about April snow. Big April snow is rare. Since 2005 (the last snowy April), we've only had two respectable snow events in April (2016 and 2022). 2018 was that ice pellet storm that dropped 4". 

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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Judging by those pictures, I'm sure they're not strangers to meth either.

I hate to think that is the case but there was a few pictures of her transition back in 2021 and then that picture and it would make sense.

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18 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

What are the top 10 least snowiest winters in Detroit? 

Here's the top 20

01) 12.9" - 1936-37

02) 13.2" - 1881-82

03) 13.7" - 1948-49

04) 15.2" - 1918-19

05) 15.4" - 1965-66

06) 15.8" - 1889-90

07) 16.6" - 1952-53

08) 17.1" - 1968-69

09) 18.0" - 1957-58

09) 18.0" - 1960-61

11) 20.0" - 1982-83

12) 22.0" - 1945-46

13) 22.6" - 1937-38

14) 22.8" - 1943-44

15) 23.2" - 1888-89

16) 23.4" - 1941-42

16) 23.4" - 1997-98

18) 23.7" - 1999-00

19) 24.1" - 2003-04

20) 25.1" - 1988-89

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29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Here's the top 20

01) 12.9" - 1936-37

02) 13.2" - 1881-82

03) 13.7" - 1948-49

04) 15.2" - 1918-19

05) 15.4" - 1965-66

06) 15.8" - 1889-90

07) 16.6" - 1952-53

08) 17.1" - 1968-69

09) 18.0" - 1957-58

09) 18.0" - 1960-61

11) 20.0" - 1982-83

12) 22.0" - 1945-46

13) 22.6" - 1937-38

14) 22.8" - 1943-44

15) 23.2" - 1888-89

16) 23.4" - 1941-42

16) 23.4" - 1997-98

18) 23.7" - 1999-00

19) 24.1" - 2003-04

20) 25.1" - 1988-89

I guess thats the difference between Detroit and Toronto. We are just enough further north east that our top 10 is significantly higher. You guys wont even crack top 20 this year but top 20 is near guaranteed here. 

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22 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

I guess thats the difference between Detroit and Toronto. We are just enough further north east that our top 10 is significantly higher. You guys wont even crack top 20 this year but top 20 is near guaranteed here. 

Yeah, this is what I was getting at. Detroit's record snowfalls are very low, because it's often in a snow hole.

Just look when compared to locations further south in Ohio:

Akron/Canton

image.png.e084accfa5e0fb3a33a733c2b71e28e6.png
Cleveland

image.png.670453f4d12ab5cff3f5bad2b0d00e22.png

Mansfield

image.png.8b1931fc205a0be575fd3c44475aa3d2.png

Youngstown

image.png.21dd39c2a24cf41185037bf71fbf2f17.png

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Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Yeah, this is what I was getting at. Detroit's record snowfalls are very low, because it's often in a snow hole.

Just look when compared to locations further south in Ohio:

Akron/Canton

image.png.e084accfa5e0fb3a33a733c2b71e28e6.png
Cleveland

image.png.670453f4d12ab5cff3f5bad2b0d00e22.png

Mansfield

image.png.8b1931fc205a0be575fd3c44475aa3d2.png

Youngstown

image.png.21dd39c2a24cf41185037bf71fbf2f17.png

It's even worse than Toledo, which Josh always likes to pretend gets completely different weather patterns.

image.png.1d872b08f888445ad193e879c246b371.png

Note that the 5th lowest at Toledo is 16.0" versus 15.4" for Detroit. 10th lowest is 18.4" versus 18.0" for Detroit.

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Here's the top 20

01) 12.9" - 1936-37

02) 13.2" - 1881-82

03) 13.7" - 1948-49

04) 15.2" - 1918-19

05) 15.4" - 1965-66

06) 15.8" - 1889-90

07) 16.6" - 1952-53

08) 17.1" - 1968-69

09) 18.0" - 1957-58

09) 18.0" - 1960-61

11) 20.0" - 1982-83

12) 22.0" - 1945-46

13) 22.6" - 1937-38

14) 22.8" - 1943-44

15) 23.2" - 1888-89

16) 23.4" - 1941-42

16) 23.4" - 1997-98

18) 23.7" - 1999-00

19) 24.1" - 2003-04

20) 25.1" - 1988-89

Looks like Josh is using xmACIS with a small adjustment to 1881-1882.

NWS Detroit amounts are similar, but a little higher for some of the early years. I'd probably assume the local NWS numbers are more accurate.  I believe a lot of this data is retrieved through automated means and it sometimes makes mistakes - especially with snow. I noticed similar discrepancies in the Pittsburgh records, and when I compared to the actual records (where available - some of the earliest years aren't available), the local NWS numbers were correct, not xmACIS.

image.png.1ad2b6e2bb6168f21fe1fb9dec870e6d.png

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Probably not quite as bad as officially recorded, but still bad no doubt. Lots of "traces" - in fact, a lot of trace depths with only trace accumulation. Don't really see this today. Suspect a lot of these would be small accumulations today (0.1-0.3").

On top of the fact, that most bigger snowfalls are inflated by about 15-20 percent with 6 hourly measurements versus once daily: Snowfall measurement: a flaky history | NCAR & UCAR News

image.png.e1b7fc9e5040c9ccba26c420489c0ec1.png

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18 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It's even worse than Toledo, which Josh always likes to pretend gets completely different weather patterns.

image.png.1d872b08f888445ad193e879c246b371.png

Note that the 5th lowest at Toledo is 16.0" versus 15.4" for Detroit. 10th lowest is 18.4" versus 18.0" for Detroit.

When did I ever say Toledo gets different weather patterns? I said in recent years theres been a big cutoff, larger than usual, which is 100% true. Last winter alone, Detroit had SEVERAL snowstorms that Toledo didnt get anything (or rain) from, and the same was seen in 2021-22 (to a lesser extent). Meanwhile, in 2021, Toledo area had near 20" on the ground in Feb. I never said Toledo cant score, or that Detroit cant get bad winters. But Toledo has been in a snow hole far more often than Detroit. Average snowfall is 7" or 8" less in Toledo than Detroit.

 

Oh, and btw...if youre going to compare Detroit to Toledo, you have to start in the same year. Toledos records didnt start til 1891. So get rid of Detroits #2 and #6 least snowy winter (actually, Toledo DID have records in 1889-90, they reported just 6.0" for by far their least snowy winter, but for some reason, NWS starts records in 1891). So since 1891, Detroits #10 least snowy is 22.0", more than Toledo.

 

Also, lets compare Detroits top 10 to Toledo's top 10:

01.) 94.9" - 2013-14 ---- 01.) 86.3" - 2013-14

02.) 93.6" - 1880-81 ---- 02.) 73.1" - 1977-78

03.) 78.0" - 1925-26 ---- 03.) 68.2" - 1981-82

04.) 74.0" - 1981-82 ---- 04.) 63.7" - 1895-96

05.) 71.7" - 2007-08 ---- 05.) 60.6" - 1966-67

06.) 69.1" - 1899-00 ---- 06.) 59.4" - 1969-70

06.) 69.1" - 2010-11 ---- 07.) 58.1" - 2007-08

08.) 67.2" - 1907-08 ---- 08.) 56.8" - 1993-94

09.) 66.5" - 1929-30 ---- 09.) 56.0" - 2004-05

10.) 65.7" - 2004-05 ---- 10.) 53.9" - 1952-53

 

Since 1891, # of winters in each category:

Toledo ---------Detroit
80”+ - 1 -------- 1
70”-80”- 1 ----- 3
60-70” – 3 ----- 11
50-60” – 7 ----- 14
40-50” – 20 ---- 39
30-40” – 43 ---- 34
20-30” – 33 ---- 23
10-20” – 20 ---- 8
M data – 5 
 

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23 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looks like Josh is using xmACIS with a small adjustment to 1881-1882.

NWS Detroit amounts are similar, but a little higher for some of the early years. I'd probably assume the local NWS numbers are more accurate.  I believe a lot of this data is retrieved through automated means and it sometimes makes mistakes - especially with snow. I noticed similar discrepancies in the Pittsburgh records, and when I compared to the actual records (where available - some of the earliest years aren't available), the local NWS numbers were correct, not xmACIS.

image.png.1ad2b6e2bb6168f21fe1fb9dec870e6d.png

I have to check with DTX why some of those years are off pre-1900. I used the #s based on the official data (I have had it all long before xmacis existed). 

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9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Probably not quite as bad as officially recorded, but still bad no doubt. Lots of "traces" - in fact, a lot of trace depths with only trace accumulation. Don't really see this today. Suspect a lot of these would be small accumulations today (0.1-0.3").

On top of the fact, that most bigger snowfalls are inflated by about 15-20 percent with 6 hourly measurements versus once daily: Snowfall measurement: a flaky history | NCAR & UCAR News

image.png.e1b7fc9e5040c9ccba26c420489c0ec1.png

We can thank a slightly warmer climate for the absence of those "cold, dry" winters that happened, although infrequently, in the old days. A majority of the least snowy winters were warm, but there were several that were closer to avg or even though mild overall, had a long stretch of cold weather that didnt produce a lot of snow (1957-58, 1960-61, 1965-66 just to name a few....57-58 and 65-66 had warm decembers but cold thereafter).

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2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

I guess thats the difference between Detroit and Toronto. We are just enough further north east that our top 10 is significantly higher. You guys wont even crack top 20 this year but top 20 is near guaranteed here. 

 

2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

snowfall averages are about the same its just the temp were a bit colder on. We are about 1.5C cooler in January for average high. 

Thats probably just enough in bad winters to get us that extra little bit 

Dont jinx either of us lol. We still need almost 9" more to avoid #20 lol. 

 

I have extensively researched both our snowiest and least snowy winters, using local newspapers as well. The "open" winters, as they called the low snow years, were just sh*t winters. Some were unreal with warmth and just terrible patterns for snow/cold (1881-82, 1889-90, 1918-19, 1948-49, 1952-53), but others had plenty of opportunities where we sat cold and dry (1936-37, 1957-58, 1960-61, 1965-66). When I say cold and dry, none of them were particularly cold winters in mean temp, but they all had plenty of times where it was cold enough and we just wouldnt snow. Detroit has not been in a snow-hole winter since 1995-96. However, this happened several times in the days of yore (see 57-58, 60-61, 65-66). In a demented way, Id even argue we were in a snow-hole-lite in 1977-78. Hard to say that in a 61.7" winter, but snowfall was greater all around us.

 

I wish records existed from the little ice age. There are books written which have pieced together local weather from the 1780s-1860s (records began 1870s) and just like now, winters varied a great deal. But one startling thing is that there were some very cold and very dry, open winters with very little snow. (this is also documented in Minnesota, as there are journals of weather from this time). 

 

The slight warming of winters is a help, not a hindrance, to snow chances in a cold climate surrounded by lakes. (while not in a snowbelt, the amount of lake effect and lake enhanced snow has absolutely increased here the last 20 years or so). 

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Now to add some actual piss and moan banter. No matter the pattern or expectation, I HATE watching snow melt. Far more irritating to me than any model failure.

Snowpack was obliterated quickly here, down to patches and 95% bare ground. After a virtually snowless December, and a torch the next two weeks, I say let’s turn the page to spring. 

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Now to add some actual piss and moan banter. No matter the pattern or expectation, I HATE watching snow melt. Far more irritating to me than any model failure.

Mine here is probably going to hang on for another day 

14 days in a row with snow cover isn’t bad considering how bad this winter has been lol 

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Just using the DTX chart.  I have been through 10 of the snowiest winters and 5 of the least snowiest winters in years in SE MI:

image.png.1ad2b6e2bb6168f21fe1fb9dec870e6d.png

 

As a note:  None of my 5 years at MTU are on this chart and they were all snowier than Detroit's snowiest. :lol: 

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15 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Mine here is probably going to hang on for another day 

14 days in a row with snow cover isn’t bad considering how bad this winter has been lol 

There's still snowcover but it's been melting. The water content of the pack has helped the melt be slow. There will still be piles but today and tonight should do it for a snowpack. A 2 week stretch of pretty deep winter is definitely not bad for a strong Nino, just hoping we do it again the 2nd half of Feb.

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1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Great weather for the Milwaukee palms this winter, where it has been the second warmest to date and one of only 4 years with a mean temperature above freezing for the 12-1 to 1-24 period. Last year being one of the 4.

image.png.8a5573e13928a96f2c639c29a7b1304d.png

The infamous winter of 1931-32 is well within striking distance for MKE. Can it succumb to the super Nino?

image.png.dc5846569d30ec1082ec3690e1b76556.png

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