Winter '23-'24 Piss and Moan/Banter Thread

[mississaugasnow]

9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

4 top 5 futility, yikes I would be as ornery as cromartie. I would definitely agree that nobody in the forum knows futility as much as Toronto (relative to their average that is). We've had futility months and we certainly have had undesirable winters. But this is why I constantly harping on the fact that regardless of how bad a pattern looks, when you live in a region that gets snow thru April, you just can't jump the gun early.

 

I do agree. I can’t speak for SE Michigan but April snows in GTA are more similar to the climo of November 1-15th 

 

It can snow and sometimes does but most years it’s 1-2” events, so I don’t classify April as a real winter month in GTA/Niagara 

 

just referencing that because you put a lot of emphasis on April snows lol 

[mississaugasnow]

Main winter season in GTA with realistic chances at a winter storm are November 15-March 15 

there’s the rare years a storm happens just on either side of those dates 

Ive never seen a 6” April or October snowstorm 

[Snowstorms]

19 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

4 top 5 futility, yikes I would be as ornery as cromartie. I would definitely agree that nobody in the forum knows futility as much as Toronto (relative to their average that is). We've had futility months and we certainly have had undesirable winters. But this is why I constantly harping on the fact that regardless of how bad a pattern looks, when you live in a region that gets snow thru April, you just can't jump the gun early.

 

For each of those winters, one month finished average while the rest were below to exceptionally below (almost futility months). I believe the 10 year stretch of futility winters we experienced is similar to the ones a lot of the folks down in the mid-atlantic are going through at the moment. 06-07, 11-12, and 15-16 were just down right bad. 09-10 had potential but to much blocking suppressed every single storm.  

April snow or November snow are nothing more than a stat pad. I could care less knowing it'll melt within 2-3 days max. I care about what falls between DJF until mid-march. And December and half of January now are pretty much a write-off and the next 10 days look cold and dry. 

[Snowstorms]

4 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Main winter season in GTA with realistic chances at a winter storm are November 15-March 15 

there’s the rare years a storm happens just on either side of those dates 

Ive never seen a 6” April or October snowstorm 

An October snowstorm is incredibly rare. I think it's only happened twice since 1938 at YYZ. There's less than 1% chance of it ever happening. And April 2016 we saw a nice 6" storm here in Toronto. Had it not been for that storm, we would've finished only an inch above 11-12. 

[mississaugasnow]

4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

An October snowstorm is incredibly rare. I think it's only happened twice since 1938 at YYZ. There's less than 1% chance of it ever happening. And April 2016 we saw a nice 6" storm here in Toronto. Had it not been for that storm, we would've finished only an inch above 11-12. 

Officially I think that was 4” though that might calendar day 

[mississaugasnow]

Though the GTA is so wide so I’m basing it off Mississauga/downtown Toronto 

[Snowstorms]

Just now, mississaugasnow said:

Officially I think that was 4” 

5.5" at YYZ. 

[mississaugasnow]

1 minute ago, Snowstorms said:

5.5" at YYZ. 

Good catch. But still very very rare and not really worth discussing April snow like it’s going to give us a legit winter storm. Similar to early November snowstorms 

[michsnowfreak]

23 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

I do agree. I can’t speak for SE Michigan but April snows in GTA are more similar to the climo of November 1-15th 

 

It can snow and sometimes does but most years it’s 1-2” events, so I don’t classify April as a real winter month in GTA/Niagara 

 

just referencing that because you put a lot of emphasis on April snows lol 

It's more than likely just a temporary trend, but we've really been on a spree of some decent April and November snowfalls in recent years lol. They just get overshadowed by our pissy Decembers and snowy Februarys (again all probably temporary trends).

[michsnowfreak]

16 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

For each of those winters, one month finished average while the rest were below to exceptionally below (almost futility months). I believe the 10 year stretch of futility winters we experienced is similar to the ones a lot of the folks down in the mid-atlantic are going through at the moment. 06-07, 11-12, and 15-16 were just down right bad. 09-10 had potential but to much blocking suppressed every single storm.  

April snow or November snow are nothing more than a stat pad. I could care less knowing it'll melt within 2-3 days max. I care about what falls between DJF until mid-march. And December and half of January now are pretty much a write-off and the next 10 days look cold and dry. 

I don't disagree that april snowfall is stat padding, but it still counts.

[Snowstorms]

3 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Good catch. But still very very rare and not really worth discussing April snow like it’s going to give us a legit winter storm. Similar to early November snowstorms 

It won't but it's possible. April snow is just a stat pad. Most April/November snow is nothing more than 2-3" with that rare/odd 4"+ storm. We had a 8-9" snowstorm back in Nov 2020. Melted within 2 days because it was so warm which is why I don't care about early or late winter snow. 

[Snowstorms]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

I don't disagree that april snowfall is stat padding, but it still counts.

I consider it stat pad when you factor in seasonal averages. I'm not sure what the average high in Detroit is in early-mid April but I'm sure its probably close to 45-50F which is nearly 20 degrees above freezing. If you're a snow cover lover, April snow isn't your friend. It'll melt within 2 days with that high sun angle and warm climo. But I guess we can agree to disagree. 

[TheClimateChanger]

46 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I don't disagree that april snowfall is stat padding, but it still counts.

Nonsense. Historically, some of the biggest snowstorms on record have occurred in April. The biggest snowstorm on record in Detroit occurred in April.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

I wonder how you'd feel or react if you experienced 4 top 5 futility winters in a mere 10 years. I don't think anyone on this forum knows futility better than us in Toronto. Although in those same 10 years, we had exceptional winters like 07-08, 08-09, and 13-14, the stinkers outweigh the good ones. Here's the numbers from YYZ just for laughs.

06-07: 23.7" (4th)

09-10: 20.6" (2nd) 

11-12: 16.9" (1st)

15-16: 25.9" (5th) 

For snow lovers in Toronto, this was a nightmare. On that note, since 2019-20 every winter except 21-22 has been warm to exceptionally warm. Although we finished above average, it was all by luck. All marginal snow events which goes back to what @mississaugasnowwas saying. Would be nice to experience both cold and snowy winters like the 60s and 70s featured. We're basically reliving the late 80's and early 90's right now. 

If I recall correctly, there was a lot of conversation here about the quality of the observations at Toronto during that era. Most locals said it was way underdone. That was probably one of the snowiest stretches on record for the Great Lakes region, so I wouldn't place too much stock in those numbers.

The 20.6" for the winter of 2009-10 is particularly suspect and out of line with surroundings. There was 48" at Pittsburgh in February 2010 alone.

[DaveNay]

Ok, y'all have had your damn snow storms. Is it spring yet?

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Nonsense. Historically, some of the biggest snowstorms on record have occurred in April. The biggest snowstorm on record in Detroit occurred in April.

Yes, indeed. April 06, 1886 took a non memorable winter and made it live on in local lore. My reference to stat padding was agreeing with snowstorms that November and April snow usually does not last long. I actually hate the term stat padding, but I know the context in which it's used on here lol. But again, my point was that it still counts towards the season total. A less extreme but more recent example would be the November 11, 2019 storm. Over 9 inches of snow which stayed on the groun 10 days. There are exceptions to every rule. Plus, the opposite of stat padding would be those times when you get a 2" snowfall and it stays on the ground the next 10 days without any more measurable snow. It still only counts for 2 inches in the record, but you got to enjoy 10 days of a wintry look.

 

So many different aspects to winter.

[mississaugasnow]

8 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

If I recall correctly, there was a lot of conversation here about the quality of the observations at Toronto during that era. Most locals said it was way underdone. That was probably one of the snowiest stretches on record for the Great Lakes region, so I wouldn't place too much stock in those numbers.

Nah those numbers are legitimate. We can also look at Toronto Island airport and Hamilton which tell the same story 

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, mississaugasnow said:

Nah those numbers are legitimate 

Well, I'll grant you 2006-07, 2011-12 & 2015-16 were generally milder winters for much of the region. 2009-10 was very snowy for most, however. As far as questioning the validity, I'm just going by the complaints of the locals from that era. Truthfully, I didn't put much stock in their complaints since I assumed they were just denying reality.

[mississaugasnow]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes, indeed. April 06, 1886 took a non memorable winter and made it live on in local lore. My reference to stat padding was agreeing with snowstorms that November and April snow usually does not last long. I actually hate the term stat padding, but I know the context in which it's used on here lol. But again, my point was that it still counts towards the season total. A less extreme but more recent example would be the November 11, 2019 storm. Over 9 inches of snow which stayed on the groun 10 days. There are exceptions to every rule. Plus, the opposite of stat padding would be those times when you get a 2" snowfall and it stays on the ground the next 10 days without any more measurable snow. It still only counts for 2 inches in the record, but you got to enjoy 10 days of a wintry look.

 

So many different aspects to winter.

I think you guys generally do better in April storms for some reason. Our April snowstorms are rare but when they do happen disruptive since it’s 1-2” snow 0.5” sleet and 0.10” freezing rain 

[mississaugasnow]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Well, I'll grant you 2006-07, 2011-12 & 2015-16 were generally milder winters for much of the region. 2009-10 was very snowy for most, however. As far as questioning the validity, I'm just going by the complaints of the locals from that era. Truthfully, I didn't put much stock in their complaints since I assumed they were just denying reality.

Ya 09-10 is looking similar to this style of winter so far 

 

Toronto just missed out on that east coast storm that have Rochester and Syracuse 6-12” and is missing this one that’s giving Chicago one 

[mississaugasnow]

So someone 15 years from now will be confused a bit looking at the data haha 

[Snowstorms]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Well, I'll grant you 2006-07, 2011-12 & 2015-16 were generally milder winters for much of the region. 2009-10 was very snowy for most, however. As far as questioning the validity, I'm just going by the complaints of the locals from that era. Truthfully, I didn't put much stock in their complaints since I assumed they were just denying reality.

Nah. The stats you see in my sig are of my own and I can tell you personally all 4 of those winters were bad to downright hideous. 09-10 sucked for us because every storm was suppressed thanks to the massive NAO block. I know areas just 100-200 miles further south had a completely different winter. 06-07 and 15-16 were virtually snowless until mid January. 

[michsnowfreak]

10 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Nah those numbers are legitimate. We can also look at Toronto Island airport and Hamilton which tell the same story 

 

8 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Well, I'll grant you 2006-07, 2011-12 & 2015-16 were generally milder winters for much of the region. 2009-10 was very snowy for most, however. As far as questioning the validity, I'm just going by the complaints of the locals from that era. Truthfully, I didn't put much stock in their complaints since I assumed they were just denying reality.

Most places have had their times with measurement issues. DTW had some from approx 1995-2005, Although the only winter it really irritated me was 2004-05 because it was a snowy winter that was under measured. They reported 63.8" but I had near 80" (there was a freak storm here that missed them. But I would still estimate they were over 70).

 

I remember a while back someone said in Canada they just applied 10-1 ratios to everything? Not sure how valid that was or is. 

 

All that said, the years that were listed for toronto make sense. 2006-07 was a synoptic nightmare. But we got saved in michigan with an unusual amount of lake effect snow. 15-16 Was a warm winter so it makes sense to me but I do not recall what was going on in Toronto. Because we had crazy gradients around here, from way below avg snow in Toledo to above avg in flint. We all know 11-12 sucked. Now 09-10 was decent here but I happen to remember there was some crazy things going on where it would be snowing in DC and raining in Maine and toronto kept getting the shaft.

[Snowstorms]

5 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

I think you guys generally do better in April storms for some reason. Our April snowstorms are rare but when they do happen disruptive since it’s 1-2” snow 0.5” sleet and 0.10” freezing rain 

April 1939 had a big snowstorm. Over 10" at YYZ. April 1975 also had a 9" storm. It's not rare but can happen occasionally like it did in April 2016. 

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I wonder how you'd feel or react if you experienced 4 top 5 futility winters in a mere 10 years. I don't think anyone on this forum knows futility better than us in Toronto. Although in those same 10 years, we had exceptional winters like 07-08, 08-09, and 13-14, the stinkers outweigh the good ones. Here's the numbers from YYZ just for laughs.

06-07: 23.7" (4th)

09-10: 20.6" (2nd) 

11-12: 16.9" (1st)

15-16: 25.9" (5th) 

For snow lovers in Toronto, this was a nightmare. On that note, since 2019-20 every winter except 21-22 has been warm to exceptionally warm. Although we finished above average, it was all by luck. All marginal snow events which goes back to what @mississaugasnowwas saying. Would be nice to experience both cold and snowy winters like the 60s and 70s featured. We're basically reliving the late 80's and early 90's right now. 

I think it's also important to note that @michsnowfreakisn't being fully forthcoming with just how bad it's been. The 5.0" observed to date is the 13th lowest (of 151 years) in the threaded historical record. Also, it's reasonable to suspect that it was somewhat inflated relative to the earlier years when they didn't use snowboards and measuring at intervals throughout the storm. I believe NCAR has found as much as 15-20 percent inflation from summing 6-hourly max accumulations measured on a snowboard relative to total depth. Regardless, this is pretty bad.

5th lowest of 66 years, since official records moved to DTW.

And last winter was mostly luck for Detroit that snowfall wasn't only moderately below the normal. If we take a short jog down I-75, we find Toledo had its 4th least seasonal snowfall (of 127 years).

 

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I think it's also important to note that @michsnowfreakisn't being fully forthcoming with just how bad it's been. The 5.0" observed to date is the 13th lowest (of 151 years) in the threaded historical record. Also, it's reasonable to suspect that it was somewhat inflated relative to the earlier years when they didn't use snowboards and measuring at intervals throughout the storm. I believe NCAR has found as much as 15-20 percent inflation from summing 6-hourly max accumulations measured on a snowboard relative to total depth. Regardless, this is pretty bad.

5th lowest of 66 years, since official records moved to DTW.

And last winter was mostly luck for Detroit. If we take a short jog down I-75, we find Toledo had its 4th least seasonal snowfall (of 127 years).

 

 We were talking about winters of the past and those that ended up on the futility side. This winter has sucked so far and I have no idea where you get the idea that I have not been forthcoming about that. I've been frustrated as hell lol. But I can't include or exclude this winter in any discussion of past winters for another 3+ months after the last snow has fallen because I don't know what's going to happen, nor does anyone else.

 

Also, I'm not sure how they measured back in the day. Or how long the 6 hour method has been in place

[Chambana]

Looks zzz for the foreseeable future. May very well be rolling into the latter part of January with 3.5” of snow  and roughly 24 hours of snowcover. Just brutal luck. 

[madwx]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

If I recall correctly, there was a lot of conversation here about the quality of the observations at Toronto during that era. Most locals said it was way underdone. That was probably one of the snowiest stretches on record for the Great Lakes region, so I wouldn't place too much stock in those numbers.

The 20.6" for the winter of 2009-10 is particularly suspect and out of line with surroundings. There was 48" at Pittsburgh in February 2010 alone.

https://ec.gc.ca/meteoaloeil-skywatchers/default.asp?lang=En&n=9DF2117C-1&wbdisable=true

 

This is correct,  the real old heads in here will remember the debates about the Nipher snow gauges and how they would lowball the snow totals

[mimillman]

I think the worst part of having 8” of snow recorded at ORD and MDW this week is having 0 on the ground to show for it 

[King James]

Big snows for the football games this weekend. At the very least, ambiance on the TV