Winter '23-'24 Piss and Moan/Banter Thread

[Stebo]

4 minutes ago, DocATL said:

The purpose of me posting a picture of an operational GFS run at hour 300+ wasn’t to troll. I fully understand it is completely unreliable. I meant to post it here concerning the extreme rarity with which we have seen west coast ridging and a southeast trough this winter.

Truth is we’ve seen a western trough dominating several winters despite the ENSO state. Some have theorized this relates to the PDO. Thats all I was trying to say.


.

Next time use the ensemble mean, it actually has some value over the op GFS which has none.

[DocATL]

Next time use the ensemble mean, it actually has some value over the op GFS which has none.

No I totally get that. It was more of a “boy we haven’t seen this in a while”


.

[KeenerWx]

10.7" for the '23-'24 season so far. 12.1" for '22'-'23. Assuming we don't get a silly late season thumper, will be 1st & 2nd worst seasons for snowfall locally since at least '05-'06.

[A-L-E-K]

 

[Lightning]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

Sadly a teenage died while watching it being struck by a cannister during some of the explosions. 

 

[A-L-E-K]

u can see so many projectiles getting launched

[michsnowfreak]

My sister is 5 miles away from there and could see glow in the sky.

[WestMichigan]

Mlive ran an interesting article recently.  GRR had 15 days below normal for the entirety of met winter, MKG only had 12.

[michsnowfreak]

39 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Mlive ran an interesting article recently.  GRR had 15 days below normal for the entirety of met winter, MKG only had 12.

A crazy warm winter with one intense cold shot. The winter finshed +6.4F at DTW, and that one brutal cold week (Jan 14-20) had a departure of -10.0F

 

At DTW, the below avg days in DJF:

Dec 13: -2F
Jan 4: -1F
Jan 5: -1F
Jan 14: -18F
Jan 15: -23F
Jan 16: -17F
Jan 17: -15F
Jan 18: -3F
Jan 19: -9F
Jan 20: -14F
Jan 21: -9F
Jan 22: -4F
Feb 17: -5F
Feb 18: -1F
Feb 24: -2F
Feb 29: -2F

DJF had:
Exactly avg: 4 days
Below avg: 16 days
Above avg: 71 days
 

 

[A-L-E-K]

leaves lol

 

 

[Snowstorms]

On 3/2/2024 at 10:24 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

With meteorological winter in the books, here is how things shaped up in southeast Michigan.

It was the fourth warmest in the threaded record (dating to 1874-1875). It was the warmest on record at Detroit City Airport (dating to 1933-1934) and the warmest on record at Detroit Metropolitan Wayne Airport (dating to 1958-1959). Interestingly, the 36.6F mean temperature at DET [which was the official observation site from 1934-1966] would have placed second warmest in the threaded record. Last winter's value of 35.2F would have placed third [or fourth if you also included this winter].

The station thread is as follows:

Threaded record

City Airport

Detroit Metropolitan Wayne International Airport

 

Pretty telling and concerning 7 of the top 10 warmest winters are in the last 27 years and 5 in the last 13 alone. Although a few others did not make the top 10 for Detroit, there's several other warm winters or winters with an abnormally warm month in that 27 year span including 1998-99, 1999-00, 2005-06, 2012-13, 2019-20, and 2020-21. 

Warmth is one statistic and snow is another. I'm more concerned about the warmth and its severity and longevity during the winter season than whether we end up with above average snow. Because if we continue on this trend, we won't see many snow cover days or may struggle with precip issues with every storm. The period between 2007-2015 was the only real cold period filled with snow/cold that we honestly had since the 90's. And many of the 90's winters were shit too. 

[michsnowfreak]

15 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Pretty telling and concerning 7 of the top 10 warmest winters are in the last 27 years and 5 in the last 13 alone. Although a few others did not make the top 10 for Detroit, there's several other warm winters or winters with an abnormally warm month in that 27 year span including 1998-99, 1999-00, 2005-06, 2012-13, 2019-20, and 2020-21. 

Warmth is one statistic and snow is another. I'm more concerned about the warmth and its severity and longevity during the winter season than whether we end up with above average snow. Because if we continue on this trend, we won't see many snow cover days or may struggle with precip issues with every storm. The period between 2007-2015 was the only real cold period filled with snow/cold that we honestly had since the 90's. And many of the 90's winters were shit too. 

Obviously 5 of the last 9 winters have been very mild, ever since the strong 2015-16 nino, and they have made their way into the top 10. After 11th warmest, the next 10 warm winters are all old (1870s-1950s plus 1 in 1980s). With the always cyclical nature of weather patterns, enso, cc, there are so many factors at play. 

I too agree that temps & snow are two different things. But with the type of winter climate we have, I don't think we will ever have to worry about struggling with precip type during "every storm". Even during the warmest winters you get cold storms. IMO the number of snowcover days would be the far bigger metric to watch to look for any notable decline. 

At Detroit, the "barest" decade was the 1990s, then the 1930s, when looking at annual avg of 1"+ snowcover days.

1910s- 58 days

1920s- 52 days

1930s- 42 days 

1940s- 49 days

1950s- 47 days 

1960s- 56 days  

1970s- 57 days 

1980s- 47 days 

1990s- 37 days 

2000s- 52 days

2010s- 53 days 

 

We have 5 to 6 more winters to go before the 2020s are complete. That will be a good assessment time, because it really averages out all the ups and downs of the decade. This wild notion that some have that the weather used to be consistent always blows me away because the weather has never been consistent here. I find that a slight bit of Winter warming is more of a help than a hindrance here snow wise. What I want to avoid is many winters like this disaster we just went through.

[Powerball]

 

[cyclone77]

Hmmm.  15 ows?  Interesting.

 

[dmc76]

On 3/9/2024 at 1:59 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Obviously 5 of the last 9 winters have been very mild, ever since the strong 2015-16 nino, and they have made their way into the top 10. After 11th warmest, the next 10 warm winters are all old (1870s-1950s plus 1 in 1980s). With the always cyclical nature of weather patterns, enso, cc, there are so many factors at play. 

I too agree that temps & snow are two different things. But with the type of winter climate we have, I don't think we will ever have to worry about struggling with precip type during "every storm". Even during the warmest winters you get cold storms. IMO the number of snowcover days would be the far bigger metric to watch to look for any notable decline. 

At Detroit, the "barest" decade was the 1990s, then the 1930s, when looking at annual avg of 1"+ snowcover days.

1910s- 58 days

1920s- 52 days

1930s- 42 days 

1940s- 49 days

1950s- 47 days 

1960s- 56 days  

1970s- 57 days 

1980s- 47 days 

1990s- 37 days 

2000s- 52 days

2010s- 53 days 

 

We have 5 to 6 more winters to go before the 2020s are complete. That will be a good assessment time, because it really averages out all the ups and downs of the decade. This wild notion that some have that the weather used to be consistent always blows me away because the weather has never been consistent here. I find that a slight bit of Winter warming is more of a help than a hindrance here snow wise. What I want to avoid is many winters like this disaster we just went through.

Last 10 winters. Is roughly 1.6 degrees warmer than what the 90’s was. 

[Powerball]

What's really sad is that the 2nd half of March is looking to end up below (even well below) normal, and potentially bring an extended arctic air outbreak.

I'll be coming up briefy at the end of March, and was hoping I didn't have to bring the winter coat. Not looking so good on that front right now.

[rainsucks]

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

What's really sad is that the 2nd half of March is looking to end up below (eveb well below) normal, and potentially bring an extended arctic air outbreak.

I'll be coming up briefy at the end of March, and was hoping I didn't have to bring the winter coat. Not looking so good on that front right now.

still looks above average to me. I mean the warmth probably won't be as extreme as it has been (relative to average), but it looks mild overall.

[dmc76]

54 minutes ago, Powerball said:

What's really sad is that the 2nd half of March is looking to end up below (even well below) normal, and potentially bring an extended arctic air outbreak.

I'll be coming up briefy at the end of March, and was hoping I didn't have to bring the winter coat. Not looking so good on that front right now.

Yea. I’ll believe it when I see it. 

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, rainsucks said:

still looks above average to me. I mean the warmth probably won't be as extreme as it has been (relative to average), but it looks mild overall.

Nah it is below normal if the models are right for the back half of the month, by that point our normals are pushing 50/30.

[Powerball]

3 hours ago, rainsucks said:

still looks above average to me. I mean the warmth probably won't be as extreme as it has been (relative to average), but it looks mild overall.

It's nothing you all aren't used to and it won't be too severe with the higher sun angle, but there is fairly good indication for a significant blast of cold air (by late March standards) next week, with 850mb temps falling to -10*C or lower and the PV Split. Granted, there's still not much snow potential outside the LES snow belts.

I won't be up until the week of Easter, so I'm hoping it eases up & moderates by then.

[dmc76]

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

It's nothing you all aren't used to and it won't be too severe with the higher sun angle, but there is fairly good indication for a significant blast of cold air (by late March standards) next week, with 850mb temps falling to -10*C or lower and the PV Split. Granted, there's still not much snow potential outside the LES snow belts.

I won't be up until the week of Easter, so I'm hoping it eases up & moderates by then.

I’ll believe this nonsense when it actually happens. 

[rainsucks]

3 hours ago, Powerball said:

It's nothing you all aren't used to and it won't be too severe with the higher sun angle, but there is fairly good indication for a significant blast of cold air (by late March standards) next week, with 850mb temps falling to -10*C or lower and the PV Split. Granted, there's still not much snow potential outside the LES snow belts.

I won't be up until the week of Easter, so I'm hoping it eases up & moderates by then.

if you’re referring to early next week’s cold shot, that looks to be quite short-lived. Mild Pacific air will flood the mid-section of the country shortly afterwards.

[rainsucks]

44 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

I’ll believe this nonsense when it actually happens. 

yeah, it’s truly been out of control this season.

[roardog]

Nothing about the pattern on any of the ensembles look “warm” after this week. It’s all relative and doesn’t mean there can’t be a warm day or days in there but the overall look certainly isn’t warm. I mean we are talking late March so a high in the upper 30s would be well below normal across much of this sub by the end of March. Nobody is talking about days and days of mid winter cold.

[michsnowfreak]

14 minutes ago, roardog said:

Nothing about the pattern on any of the ensembles look “warm” after this week. It’s all relative and doesn’t mean there can’t be a warm day or days in there but the overall look certainly isn’t warm. I mean we are talking late March so a high in the upper 30s would be well below normal across much of this sub by the end of March. Nobody is talking about days and days of mid winter cold.

Agree 100%. We all know the cold has failed this winter, and as you get to late March average has warmed significantly, so no one is talking mid winter cold for days. But its head-scratching to see how anyone can say the extended "looks mild/warm".

[King James]

Since when is this kind of wind described as “breezy”?

It’s like a blow dryer on full blast outside. Stiff and unrelenting wind. 

[dmc76]

Yawn 

since Dec 1st (DTW) 

the ratio between warm days and cold days is almost 6 to 1. 

[rainsucks]

until something changes in the Pacific, we’re not going to have a cold pattern lock into place for any extended period of time, sorry.

[dmc76]

1 hour ago, rainsucks said:

until something changes in the Pacific, we’re not going to have a cold pattern lock into place for any extended period of time, sorry.

1-2 day cold pattern. 

[rainsucks]

5 hours ago, dmc76 said:

1-2 day cold pattern. 

ALL long-range modeling has been severely cold biased for quite some time now and cannot be trusted. bluewave has made some very informative posts on why this is the case and what can be done to improve the accuracy of long-range forecasting going forward.