King James Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Excited to get out in the garden early this year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 So far the winner for most accurate winter season forecasting goes to the NWS and their weekly temp and precip anom maps. *honorable mention goes to Alek and his zzzzz's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Personally it really doesn’t matter a whole lot right now how big of a train wreck this winter turns out to be. My wife and I welcomed our 2nd child into the world last week. Cloud 9 only begins to describe how I feel. You can’t change the weather but you can impact and shape the little creatures you create in life. 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 16 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Personally it really doesn’t matter a whole lot right now how big of a train wreck this winter turns out to be. My wife and I welcomed our 2nd child into the world last week. Cloud 9 only begins to describe how I feel. You can’t change the weather but you can impact and shape the little creatures you create in life. Congrats homie, that's awesome! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 17 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Personally it really doesn’t matter a whole lot right now how big of a train wreck this winter turns out to be. My wife and I welcomed our 2nd child into the world last week. Cloud 9 only begins to describe how I feel. You can’t change the weather but you can impact and shape the little creatures you create in life. Big time congrats. Definitely infinitely more important!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Personally it really doesn’t matter a whole lot right now how big of a train wreck this winter turns out to be. My wife and I welcomed our 2nd child into the world last week. Cloud 9 only begins to describe how I feel. You can’t change the weather but you can impact and shape the little creatures you create in life. Awesome! congratulations.... You're right, it puts everything in perspective. (unless you're Ji who said he was refreshing model runs while his wife was pushing ) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 19 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: Lol once again you're missing the point. Many storms take that path and yes not all are big dogs. The ones that need to track favorable for us, lose energy to coastals, limiting our big dog potential. 4-1 in favor of chicago 16+, and 10-4 > foot. All that needs to be said. lol and once again you are missing the point or misreading the information. In the last 20 years storms that have dropped 8"+ of snowfall, Detroit has beat Chicago with 18 storms to Chicago's 12 storms. Of these storms, those that exceeded 10" are a tie 9-9. Of these, those that exceeded a foot, Detroit has seen 2 but Chicago 4, and those that exceeded 16", Chicago saw 2 and Detroit 1. I mean you should have not minded these last few winters. Multiple storms with good rates, a few storms with TSSN, limited cold and snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 21 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: You nailed it, I think with that stretch alone we got a higher end stretch of wintet than expected. Obviously for those who didn't benefit it's been a exceptionally lean winter. For whatever amount of background climate warming you want to add to potential seasonal outcomes, betting on a objectively good winter for winter enthusiasts in a strong El Niño is a losing bet. 09-10 as a moderate to strong El Niño was essentially a unicorn for the areas that had BN temps and AN snow, including here in the Chicago area. 02-03 was a moderate Niño that gave eastern portions of the sub-forum a solid winter, though it was cool and dry out here. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Thanks. Yes, a super nino is literally the worst possible bet. 1877-78 was a super nino, so was 1918-19...some of the most god-awful winters in history were. An interesting Ive noticed here is that in these mild, unappealing winters, we actually have a heightened chance of heavy snow rates, TSSN, etc, but the usual parade of snowfalls and cold are missing. The winter of 2022-23 + 2023-24 we have seen MULTIPLE storms bring us blinding snow, with DTW having gone below a quarter mile visibility on I believe 7 different events since Dec 2022, and a few of them got to 1/8 mile. TSSN was widespread locally on March 3, 2023 & Jan 12, 2024. When looking at some historical winters, this has also been the case (one of the warmest winters we have ever seen, 1931-32, saw heavy TSSN on March 22). For those who dont have interest in all things winter, theres definitely been some fun times the last few years. But for the true winter enthusiasts like myself, ill gamble with La Ninas return next year anyday over this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Personally it really doesn’t matter a whole lot right now how big of a train wreck this winter turns out to be. My wife and I welcomed our 2nd child into the world last week. Cloud 9 only begins to describe how I feel. You can’t change the weather but you can impact and shape the little creatures you create in life. Huuuge congratulations!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: lol and once again you are missing the point or misreading the information. In the last 20 years storms that have dropped 8"+ of snowfall, Detroit has beat Chicago with 18 storms to Chicago's 12 storms. Of these storms, those that exceeded 10" are a tie 9-9. Of these, those that exceeded a foot, Detroit has seen 2 but Chicago 4, and those that exceeded 16", Chicago saw 2 and Detroit 1. I mean you should have not minded these last few winters. Multiple storms with good rates, a few storms with TSSN, limited cold and snowcover. This is like the Harry and my debate of old!! Harry was right as the end result is simple if you want truly big dogs => Lake Effect, Mountains or EC. Detroit and Chicago are not epic snowstorm destinations!! The Chicago / Detroit debate for me is easy: April => June I would choose Chicago weather. July => March I would choose Detroit weather. March is debatable. While this is not for everyone would be my preference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Thanks. Yes, a super nino is literally the worst possible bet. 1877-78 was a super nino, so was 1918-19...some of the most god-awful winters in history were. Was 77-78 a nino? I thought I read that it was....maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Personally it really doesn’t matter a whole lot right now how big of a train wreck this winter turns out to be. My wife and I welcomed our 2nd child into the world last week. Cloud 9 only begins to describe how I feel. You can’t change the weather but you can impact and shape the little creatures you create in life. Congrats! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I remember one August day I was taking a bag of groceries out of my car and I didn't see a container of sour cream fall out and roll under my seat. I found it two weeks later....and it still aged better than this: 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 36 minutes ago, buckeye said: Was 77-78 a nino? I thought I read that it was....maybe I'm wrong. Actually both 1877-78 and 1977-78 were ninos. Big difference being 1877-78 was strong and 1977-78 was weak. While a weak el nino is not a slam dunk for a cold snowy winter like a strong one is a slam dunk for a mild winter, it is crazy to see the likelihood of a harsher winter based on the strength of the nino (in this area). Meanwhile La Ninas do have a lean towards cold when you average them all out, but the results are all over the board temp-wise in all the strength categories (what is a strong likelihood, fortunately, is a stormy winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 What is going on with the models? First this botched pattern change and now this wildly changing Nor’easter forecast. How are we this bad at forecasting even with AI at our disposal and voluminous analog data?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 24 minutes ago, DocATL said: What is going on with the models? First this botched pattern change and now this wildly changing Nor’easter forecast. How are we this bad at forecasting even with AI at our disposal and voluminous analog data? . AI is programmed by man and controlled by man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 22 hours ago, Lightning said: This is like the Harry and my debate of old!! Harry was right as the end result is simple if you want truly big dogs => Lake Effect, Mountains or EC. Detroit and Chicago are not epic snowstorm destinations!! The Chicago / Detroit debate for me is easy: April => June I would choose Chicago weather. July => March I would choose Detroit weather. March is debatable. While this is not for everyone would be my preference. It's just something about getting that big dog in your own backyard. I just get tired of josh turd polishing everything, like Detroit is the best place to be in the winter. Chicago is 10:4 over us in storms 12+ in recent years which backs up my original point. He doesn't get tired of all the mediocre events which is fine. I get it, its not in our climo to get big storms, but the point is its possible and we don't. He just can't admit that we suck at big dogs and Chicago is just in a better location. Instead he just focuses on our mediocre 4-10 events and how we own Chicago in that department. That's like the lions beating the bears in the regular season, then losing to them in the playoffs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said: It's just something about getting that big dog in your own backyard. I just get tired of josh turd polishing everything, like Detroit is the best place to be in the winter. Chicago is 10:4 over us in storms 12+ in recent years which backs up my original point. He doesn't get tired of all the mediocre events which is fine. I get it, its not in our climo to get big storms, but the point is its possible and we don't. He just can't admit that we suck at big dogs and Chicago is just in a better location. Instead he just focuses on our mediocre 4-10 events and how we own Chicago in that department. That's like the lions beating the bears in the regular season, then losing to them in the playoffs. I think Detroit averages 45"seasonal snowfall compared to 37-38" for Chicago. I've had several winters recently under 25" seasonal snowfall yet Michigansnowfreak has only experienced one winter in 29 years like that. Big dogs happen so infrequently in Chicago I'd take the consistent yearly snow advantage you have. But understand your point 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 AI is programmed by man and controlled by man.For a specific reason…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 solid february we’re having. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: It's just something about getting that big dog in your own backyard. I just get tired of josh turd polishing everything, like Detroit is the best place to be in the winter. Chicago is 10:4 over us in storms 12+ in recent years which backs up my original point. He doesn't get tired of all the mediocre events which is fine. I get it, its not in our climo to get big storms, but the point is its possible and we don't. He just can't admit that we suck at big dogs and Chicago is just in a better location. Instead he just focuses on our mediocre 4-10 events and how we own Chicago in that department. That's like the lions beating the bears in the regular season, then losing to them in the playoffs. I am not disagreeing with Wayne and Macomb Counties for sure. I moved away from Macomb several years ago and have never looked back!! My area (in the so called hills of SE MI) is definitely better than Chicago with 12"+ storms. If I lived in Macomb again I just might be posting the exact same as you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: It's just something about getting that big dog in your own backyard. I just get tired of josh turd polishing everything, like Detroit is the best place to be in the winter. Chicago is 10:4 over us in storms 12+ in recent years which backs up my original point. He doesn't get tired of all the mediocre events which is fine. I get it, its not in our climo to get big storms, but the point is its possible and we don't. He just can't admit that we suck at big dogs and Chicago is just in a better location. Instead he just focuses on our mediocre 4-10 events and how we own Chicago in that department. That's like the lions beating the bears in the regular season, then losing to them in the playoffs. Nothing wrong with liking a big dog in your own backyard. Just like you get tired of me liking winter (as you call it turd polishing) I get tired or your constant contradictions and changing complaints just to constantly act like detroit is the worst place to be in the winter. In our 2008-15 era of record snowfall we had so many really good storms in the 10-12" range, record snow depths, and you carried on that DTW couldnt eclipse a foot. Then when Detroit got a 17" storm you managed to berate the storm for taking too long, saying you like rates. Since then we have had multiple storms with impressive rates, visibility down to 1/8 mile, TSSN, and you just manage to "not remember" them. Its always something. Detroit has had more 6"+ and 8"+ storms than Chicago, and the exact same amount of 10"+ storms. I know this is a shock, but some people can still enjoy a good storm under a foot. And speaking of a foot, Chicago had 4 storms to Detroits 2 of foot+, not 10-4 as you interpreted. lol 10 storms of a foot+ in 20 years, I guess the midwest is Nova Scotia now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 hours ago, Cary67 said: I think Detroit averages 45"seasonal snowfall compared to 37-38" for Chicago. I've had several winters recently under 25" seasonal snowfall yet Michigansnowfreak has only experienced one winter in 29 years like that. Big dogs happen so infrequently in Chicago I'd take the consistent yearly snow advantage you have. But understand your point When my brother (who now lives in Denver) lived in Chicago (granted he lived in the worst place possible, right on the lake), we almost always had more snow than him. Indeed the Detroit area has a snowfall total advantage over Chicago, but Chicago has the edge with lowest temps. These are things that only a hobbyist would notice though, essentially the climates are very similar. Even still, the general acting like we dont get snowstorms from steve is ridiculous. Most here already know this, but you can have an exciting storm if its not over a foot. Again, the last 20 years have been good to both areas, so the last few mundane winters (tho DTW did pop off 2 6" storms last winter) is not shocking. Storms the last 20 years: ………..DTW….ORD 6”+ --- 37 ---- 27 8”+ --- 18 ---- 12 10”+ -- 9 ----- 9 12”+ -- 2 ----- 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, Lightning said: I am not disagreeing with Wayne and Macomb Counties for sure. I moved away from Macomb several years ago and have never looked back!! My area (in the so called hills of SE MI) is definitely better than Chicago with 12"+ storms. If I lived in Macomb again I just might be posting the exact same as you. You seem to truly enjoy winter though in all its aspects though, not just one single solitary metric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1757415044361380080?s=46&t=vaNz3X96rQKSXMNwtdXFsA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: You seem to truly enjoy winter though in all its aspects though, not just one single solitary metric. I think it was JB that says "Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got" Took me a few years and that has finally sunk in. I can't change it, make it do what I want but I can enjoy it!! I will say this is MOSTLY true for me now!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ready to torch into spring and get this s**t over with. Expectations were muted, but quite an accomplishment to (perhaps) come behind 22/23. Single event max at 2.4” and below double digits on the season. Lightning on the horizon last week got me excited. Let’s get on with some form of activity. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Nothing wrong with liking a big dog in your own backyard. Just like you get tired of me liking winter (as you call it turd polishing) I get tired or your constant contradictions and changing complaints just to constantly act like detroit is the worst place to be in the winter. In our 2008-15 era of record snowfall we had so many really good storms in the 10-12" range, record snow depths, and you carried on that DTW couldnt eclipse a foot. Then when Detroit got a 17" storm you managed to berate the storm for taking too long, saying you like rates. Since then we have had multiple storms with impressive rates, visibility down to 1/8 mile, TSSN, and you just manage to "not remember" them. Its always something. Detroit has had more 6"+ and 8"+ storms than Chicago, and the exact same amount of 10"+ storms. I know this is a shock, but some people can still enjoy a good storm under a foot. And speaking of a foot, Chicago had 4 storms to Detroits 2 of foot+, not 10-4 as you interpreted. lol 10 storms of a foot+ in 20 years, I guess the midwest is Nova Scotia now. I didn't remember one storm lol, and I have been a snowbird a lot in past winters so I probably wasn't home for it, and didn't come home for it since 36 hours to get 16 inches doesn't excite me. I never said Detroit sucks or that I don't enjoy snow when we get it. It just sucks to miss out on several big dogs the past 20 years. We go through this every winter. We both like different things but I guess you'll never understand where I'm coming from. You keep repeating the same stats like I don't comprehend that we do better than ChIcago in the smaller events. I guess you can't read your own stats. Just keep wearing those rose colored glasses. 12”+ -- 2 ----- 4 14”+ -- 1 ----- 2 16”+ -- 1 ----- 2 18”+ -- 0 ----- 2 24”+ -- 0 ----- 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: I didn't remember one storm lol, and I have been a snowbird a lot in past winters so I probably wasn't home for it, and didn't come home for it since 36 hours to get 16 inches doesn't excite me. I never said Detroit sucks or that I don't enjoy snow when we get it. It just sucks to miss out on several big dogs the past 20 years. We go through this every winter. We both like different things but I guess you'll never understand where I'm coming from. You keep repeating the same stats like I don't comprehend that we do better than ChIcago in the smaller events. I guess you can't read your own stats. Just keep wearing those rose colored glasses. 12”+ -- 2 ----- 4 14”+ -- 1 ----- 2 16”+ -- 1 ----- 2 18”+ -- 0 ----- 2 24”+ -- 0 ----- 0 I guess youll never understand where im coming from either. Best if we just ignore each other. Oh, and I can read my own stats just fine. Thats 4 storms in TOTAL of over 12"+, that why each category is 12+, 14+, otherwise it would have been worded 12-13.9", 14-15.9", etc. You dont add each category up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/13/2024 at 3:17 PM, michsnowfreak said: Nothing wrong with liking a big dog in your own backyard. Just like you get tired of me liking winter (as you call it turd polishing) I get tired or your constant contradictions and changing complaints just to constantly act like detroit is the worst place to be in the winter. In our 2008-15 era of record snowfall we had so many really good storms in the 10-12" range, record snow depths, and you carried on that DTW couldnt eclipse a foot. Then when Detroit got a 17" storm you managed to berate the storm for taking too long, saying you like rates. Since then we have had multiple storms with impressive rates, visibility down to 1/8 mile, TSSN, and you just manage to "not remember" them. Its always something. Detroit has had more 6"+ and 8"+ storms than Chicago, and the exact same amount of 10"+ storms. I know this is a shock, but some people can still enjoy a good storm under a foot. And speaking of a foot, Chicago had 4 storms to Detroits 2 of foot+, not 10-4 as you interpreted. lol 10 storms of a foot+ in 20 years, I guess the midwest is Nova Scotia now. Not sure I follow. Turd polishing and liking winter are not the same. In fact, they're complete opposites. I don't get tired of you liking winter, but you're turd polishing because your standards for winter are very low...which causes you to be happy about very basic/minimum things in winter that shouldn't require much effort. As an example - if we have a good 5-15 day period in winter, that's not a big deal. Winter is 90 days, so why would anyone be happy that 5-15 of those days feature consistent winter? I would be unhappy if 50 days did...so only 5-15 days is horrible. That's what I mean by turd polishing. If one likes winter, one should have very high standards. How can anyone who loves winter be happy with any winter season since 2014-15? I don't care about comparisons to climo or actual seasonal snowfall totals; there are certain minimum standards that need to be met. "Tenor of the winter" metrics are the most meaningful...such as SDDs, # of days with frozen lakes, # of wintry days (defined as a day with high temps in the 20s or colder AND 2"+ snow depth), etc. If we get a 10" snowfall that melts within a week, we shouldn't be happy just because our paltry climo monthly average snowfall is met. That isn't winter, because there are 20 other days in the month that need to be mostly wintry-feeling too. A climo winter around here is bad enough. So, by default, 60-80% of our winters here are horrible for winter lovers. What's a huge slap in the face about the current winter is that places which should be totally immune from this crap are seeing a bad winter...and that's the last straw. I get furious enough when we don't have 2 consecutive months of snow cover here at 42.1N...so it's 100x worse when places at 45-49N are dealing with the same thing. Nothing is sacred anymore. Will we ever get to experience a DJF all 3 of these very important "tenor of the winter" things are true, at least 80-90% of the time? Even I have reasonable standards, since I didn't say 100%. (1) You wake up and look outside, and it always looks like winter (snow cover) (2) You walk outside, and it always feels like winter (temps) (3) You don't have to worry about the snow melting (stability) We can barely get (1) or (2) for any more than a week these days, so there's no chance to ever imagine (3). But (3) is the most important thing for a winter lover. Many people on the forum nowadays seem to think that people should be happy with winter simply because it's colder than summer. Hooray, I guess?? If there are 3 months of summer, there should be 3 months of winter. Endless days of dry weather with temps in the 30s and 40s is not winter. Do we ever have endless non-summer days in July/August? No - when I wake up on August 1st, I don't have to worry about whether it will feel like summer. I don't know what's worse about this winter - the actual weather, or the fact that people aren't completely furious and throwing things against the wall in frustration. People on the forum seem to be taking this in stride, which is ridiculous. I want to see more complaining, not less...because it shows that people actually care. Everyone is participating in turd polishing this winter, not just Josh. Bing Crosby didn't say "I'm...dreaming...of a White...Christmas (but only if all of the indices align perfectly, and it's not too early in the season for lake warmth, and then the snow will melt right away if it falls later in the season, and we should be happy with 7 days of winter in a season and we have to hope in coincides with December 25th)." And this can't be blamed on ENSO state. Last year wasn't a strong El Nino, and it was still a horrible winter. Same for most of the last 8 winters. It's always something...do we really need all of the stars to align perfectly just to have winter?? If so, what's the ******* point? People often misunderstand my views. I want to enjoy all 4 seasons -= they just need to each be 3 months!! Not much to ask, but it's like pulling teeth to get anything close to that since 2014-15. It drives you crazy. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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