Winter '23-'24 Piss and Moan/Banter Thread

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

With numbers like these, Ohio might as well be the new Tennessee.

Just across the river...

 

 

 

Yep 

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

You're missing the point. I stated this isn't a 2 foot snowstorm. But had this storm been more west, it wouldn't transfer and the possibility is there to strenghten and maybe be a big dog. Being in our location, susceptible to transfers, theres no chance unless there's phasing. We've seen many storms take this next storms track and transfer, limiting our snow. The only way is to have phasing and we all know how hard to get a perfect timing full phase it. Areas to our west like Chicago don't have to worry about losing energy to a transfer when they get the big dog potential. We need so much more to align and go right to see that big storm.  Also like many have stated, myself included, I would be okay with going 3-5 years with no snow knowing a big dog is gonna happen. It's cool that you'd rather have 5 inches on the ground for a month straight vs getting a potential big dog. Different strokes.

Many storms take that path and strengthen without producing 18-24"+ totals. You need a supercharged storm to get that, and those in this region of the country are EXTREMELY rare. Chicago has gotten lucky a few times, but if its a "west" thing, than why do areas of eastern Iowa have worse big storm climo than us? Yes different strokes indeed, fortunately for me, Ill be able to have our climo cooperate more than you will, wanting no cold, snowcover, or overcast skies in winter, just 2'+ storms 

Storms the last 20 years:

In the last 20 years (2004-2023):

………..DTW….ORD

6”+ --- 37 ---- 27

8”+ --- 18 ---- 12

10”+ -- 9 ----- 9

12”+ -- 2 ----- 4

14”+ -- 1 ----- 2

16”+ -- 1 ----- 2

18”+ -- 0 ----- 2

24”+ -- 0 ----- 0

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Interesting that Toronto didnt get close to 6" for any of those. March 21st 2008 was 0".  Earlier that March (4th-9th) is when Toronto saw 12" within a 5 day span and lots of news articles about that. That must be what I was remembering about 08. 

In a winter like this I wouldnt mind 12" within a 5 day span haha. 

March 20, 1996 was an awesome storm because it came after a HORRIBLE winter locally. We were the snowhole that winter. The storm caught many off guard. Dropped 7.0" here, 5.8" at DTW.

March 25/26, 2002 was a crazy storm. Insane cutoff of a heavy snowband. Ann Arbor had just 0.2", but DTW had 4.7", I had 8.0", and Dundee (between DTW and TOL) had 12.0".

Mar 21, 2008 was a great Good Friday storm. 7.3" at DTW, 6.9" here. Made for a White Easter.

 

There were also some big storms the first half of March and in April, I was just talking 2nd half of March.

[mississaugasnow]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

March 20, 1996 was an awesome storm because it came after a HORRIBLE winter locally. We were the snowhole that winter. The storm caught many off guard. Dropped 7.0" here, 5.8" at DTW.

March 25/26, 2002 was a crazy storm. Insane cutoff of a heavy snowband. Ann Arbor had just 0.2", but DTW had 4.7", I had 8.0", and Dundee (between DTW and TOL) had 12.0".

Mar 21, 2008 was a great Good Friday storm. 7.3" at DTW, 6.9" here. Made for a White Easter.

 

There were also some big storms the first half of March and in April, I was just talking 2nd half of March.

Yep, first half of March is still very much big winter storm potential. Seems at least for Toronto it seems to drop off very fast after mid March. I wonder if it makes sense to lower my threshold to 4". I wonder if 6" is too high for Mid March onwards 

[mississaugasnow]

Reason I say that is because it seems like winter ends right at march 15th but that's not correct. Lots of 2-5" storms after March 15th 

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, mississaugasnow said:

Yep, first half of March is still very much big winter storm potential. Seems at least for Toronto it seems to drop off very fast after mid March. I wonder if it makes sense to lower my threshold to 4". I wonder if 6" is too high for Mid March onwards 

If you lower it to 4", then I can add a bunch more lol. 

 

I will say though, its interesting when you look at history. There have been some big snowstorms late in the season in winters that were not cold, snowy, memorable:

April 6, 1886- 24.5". THE granddaddy. Winter 1885-86 wasnt memorable to that point. Not a terrible winter, but one that would have finished below avg snowfall if not for this.

March 21, 1888 - 8.4". A big snowstorm and record cold hit the lap of spring, about a week after nyc had their infamous storm. Winter was cold but not snowy.

March 19, 1906 - 6.7". What a dumpster fire winter. Barely any snow, 60s in January. the best of winter was at the start of spring (also this was a strong nino)

March 27, 1913 - 6.5". This storm helped us eclipse the 30" mark in a below avg snow season

March 22, 1932 - 7.5". One of the warmest winters on record, not a single day with snowcover til Feb 4th. And a big storm to start spring.

March 25, 1933 - 6.0". A November snowstorm dropped 9", this storm 6", and the entire rest of the winter managed a total of about 10"

March 27, 1934 - 9.2". What had been a rather dry winter, despite Febs cold, now sees a big storm

March 23, 1968 - 7.7". Season snowfall was in the low 20s til this storm came.

March 17, 1973 - 9.9". A monster storm in mid-MI (20"+) during a strong el nino

March 21, 1983 - 7.3". A strong El Nino that was on pace to smash Detroits least snowy winter...til this happened

March 22, 1992 - 7.1". Another strong Nino. This winter had a few good storms and stretches to make it avg in the snow dept, but certainly mild overall

 

[buckeye]

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

With numbers like these, Ohio might as well be the new Tennessee.

 

whose gonna break it to Josh that Detroit is the new CMH 

[michsnowfreak]

20 minutes ago, buckeye said:

whose gonna break it to Josh that Detroit is the new CMH 

I won't hold my breath on that. Snowfall is a world of difference up here from central Ohio.

 

CMH went thru similar and worse stretches from the 1920s-40s. No doubt it will pick up sometime.

[Lightning]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

March 20, 1996 was an awesome storm because it came after a HORRIBLE winter locally. We were the snowhole that winter. The storm caught many off guard. Dropped 7.0" here, 5.8" at DTW.

March 25/26, 2002 was a crazy storm. Insane cutoff of a heavy snowband. Ann Arbor had just 0.2", but DTW had 4.7", I had 8.0", and Dundee (between DTW and TOL) had 12.0".

Mar 21, 2008 was a great Good Friday storm. 7.3" at DTW, 6.9" here. Made for a White Easter.

 

There were also some big storms the first half of March and in April, I was just talking 2nd half of March.

That March 1996 was much bigger locally (I was living in Macomb County at that time).  Thundersnow included!!  That was a great storm!! 

I recall the forecast was rain ending with 1-2" of slop.  12"+ later in local areas in central Macomb county to Port Huron.

 

You are missing a lot of great April storms unless that is just DTW area.

 

[buckeye]

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I won't hold my breath on that. Snowfall is a world of difference up here from central Ohio.

 

CMH went thru similar and worse stretches from the 1920s-40s. No doubt it will pick up sometime.

Detroit averages about double what CMH does.  A world of difference to me would be a tughill plateau winter, not a Detroit winter.      Still, isn't Detroit sitting around 17" for the season?    That would be fairly typically to where CMH would be sitting in mid Feb back when winters were 'normal'....that's what I was referring to when I made the 'Detroit is the new CMH' comparison, albeit a bit tongue and cheek. 

My daughter and son-in-law moved up to Chesterfield, MI a couple years ago for his MU med school.   They haven't seemed that impressed with the snow.  

It's 64 degrees today as I type this, weren't we suppose to be in the midst of a good period of winter right now?       It's crazy.   

 

[buckeye]

How is this even possible.....??????       edit: to clarify this is in Ohio

[TheClimateChanger]

27 minutes ago, buckeye said:

How is this even possible.....??????       edit: to clarify this is in Ohio

Blowing snow every chance you get and being situated on a north facing slope? Plus, many recent overnights have been below freezing, potentially allowing some or all of the snow melting during the day to be replaced. Humidity levels have also been low, which would limit melting.

Boston Mills has a 36" base, despite 6" of snow on the season.

[michsnowfreak]

45 minutes ago, Lightning said:

That March 1996 was much bigger locally (I was living in Macomb County at that time).  Thundersnow included!!  That was a great storm!! 

I recall the forecast was rain ending with 1-2" of slop.  12"+ later in local areas in central Macomb county to Port Huron.

 

You are missing a lot of great April storms unless that is just DTW area.

 

I was only referring to the 2nd half of March, not April. But yes there have been some decent April storms for sure!

[michsnowfreak]

34 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Detroit averages about double what CMH does.  A world of difference to me would be a tughill plateau winter, not a Detroit winter.      Still, isn't Detroit sitting around 17" for the season?    That would be fairly typically to where CMH would be sitting in mid Feb back when winters were 'normal'....that's what I was referring to when I made the 'Detroit is the new CMH' comparison, albeit a bit tongue and cheek. 

My daughter and son-in-law moved up to Chesterfield, MI a couple years ago for his MU med school.   They haven't seemed that impressed with the snow.  

It's 64 degrees today as I type this, weren't we suppose to be in the midst of a good period of winter right now?       It's crazy.   

 

Detroit is at 19.5" on the season to date. Last winters total was below average at 37.1" but not disaster. So indeed, last 2 winters have been not only mild, but they have lacked the usual amount of snowcover and snowfall. We've had some good storms (including TSSN 3/3/23 & 1/12/24) but the longevity of snowcover and ice on lakes has definitely left much to be desired. If your daughter moved up here after the 2021-22 winter, I would not be impressed either LOL. Funny thing is, Detroit is due for a handful of subpar snowfall seasons to get the average down more in line with the long-term avg, owing to the snowy 2000s & 2010s. But other than a slightly below average snow season last year, we really haven't seen much of that yet. Seems that this season is well on the way to that, but ya never know. If it were up to me, this is not the way I would run a snowfall deficit at all . Id take a couple of cold and dry 20-25" winters where the snow never melts. 

 

All of that said no way to sugar coat a strong El nino. Those are guaranteed mild winters in this region. I'm not sure about Columbus's climo is in la nina winters, but Id already place my bets that next winter will be better for the Sub.

[michsnowfreak]

48 minutes ago, buckeye said:

How is this even possible.....??????       edit: to clarify this is in Ohio

My guess would be other than the last couple nights they'd been blowing plenty of snow with the guns. Mount Brighton in SE MI still has a solid 20 inch base and it's open for all skiing activities.

[Gino27]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

How is this even possible.....??????       edit: to clarify this is in Ohio

They have a cooling tower for their snowmaking water supply. It's a really impressive setup and can cover the entire hill with just a 48 hour window of below 30 degree temps.

[Geoboy645]

Honestly at this point, I don't know if I really want anymore significant cold and snow. The warmth and rain yesterday felt really nice, and there are already the beginnings of some of our early spring plants coming up. I've frankly forgotten that it is in fact early February a few times. We've had our cold and snowy stretch, and a pretty high end one at that. Let's get an early, warm, and drawn out spring in for once. I know that we will get cold and snow still, especially with the incoming SSW. But man, this stretch has been really nice. 

[Lightning]

29 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

Honestly at this point, I don't know if I really want anymore significant cold and snow. The warmth and rain yesterday felt really nice, and there are already the beginnings of some of our early spring plants coming up. I've frankly forgotten that it is in fact early February a few times. We've had our cold and snowy stretch, and a pretty high end one at that. Let's get an early, warm, and drawn out spring in for once. I know that we will get cold and snow still, especially with the incoming SSW. But man, this stretch has been really nice. 

I know what your saying but you know it wouldn't work out as desired.  Get to much warm early and we end up with blossom damage and/or honey bee loss.  So I don't mind going back to a cold pattern.  Just hope it isn't dry and cold.  Let's have some fun as it cools off again.

[madwx]

4 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

Honestly at this point, I don't know if I really want anymore significant cold and snow. The warmth and rain yesterday felt really nice, and there are already the beginnings of some of our early spring plants coming up. I've frankly forgotten that it is in fact early February a few times. We've had our cold and snowy stretch, and a pretty high end one at that. Let's get an early, warm, and drawn out spring in for once. I know that we will get cold and snow still, especially with the incoming SSW. But man, this stretch has been really nice. 

Definitely have time for cold and snow but one thing that we will quickly run out of time for is sustained snow cover. By the time we get to the last few days of February it gets harder and harder to keep up a snowpack. And it’s looking dry for another 7-10 days so that only leaves a short period to have a true winter landscape 

[Snowstorms]

@mississaugasnow 

All of the top 5 warmest Feb days at YYZ have occurred in the last 8 years lol. That's f*cked up. 

https://x.com/gtaweather1/status/1756061770123268267?s=20 

Without a doubt, since the 2015-16 super Nino, we've experienced record breaking warm winters. It's hard to say if this is the new norm now, but certainly feels that way. Don't think we've experienced a string of cold winters, to the severity of the warm winters that we've experienced in the last 8 years, in a long time (since the early-mid 80s). 

[cyclone77]

Feeling really fortunate for that intense stretch of winter weather in mid January.  Outside of that 13 day stretch we basically had no winter.  Even though palmboy was a troll there's no doubt winter's are getting extremely wimpy, and apparently heading towards non-existent if trends continue.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

@mississaugasnow 

All of the top 5 warmest Feb days at YYZ have occurred in the last 8 years lol. That's f*cked up. 

https://x.com/gtaweather1/status/1756061770123268267?s=20 

Without a doubt, since the 2015-16 super Nino, we've experienced record breaking warm winters. It's hard to say if this is the new norm now, but certainly feels that way. Don't think we've experienced a string of cold winters, to the severity of the warm winters that we've experienced in the last 8 years, in a long time (since the early-mid 80s). 

Since the 15-16 strong nino winter, 5 of the 9 winters have been very mild, 3 near normal (+/- 0.5° or less) and 1 cold here. Mild has dominated, but not consecutively. Prior to the 15-16 nino, 5 of the previous 7 winters were cold, the other 2 being mild. But if we expand it to the prior 13 winters, 8 were cold, 4 mild, 1 avg. So in the last 22 winters, 9 were mild, 4 near avg, and 9 cold. 

Looking historically, 4 of the 7 winters from 1875-76 to 1881-82 were very mild (but the other 3 were cold). 5 of the 6 winters from 1948-49 thru 1953-54 were mild. On the flip side, the most impressive cold stretches were 14 cold winters in a row 1892-93 to 1904-05 and 17 of the 20 winters from 1966-67 to 1985-86 being cold.

 

As has been discussed many times, snowfall has not suffered at all, merely coming back down-to-earth after our record stretch. A trend since the 15-16 winter has been often getting an excessively snowy month at some point in the winter, but with many periods of thawing/zzzz. Snowcover overall has taken somewhat of a hit, but again in the 13 years prior to 15-16, snowcover was comfortably above the longterm avg, including record breaking consecutive years 13-14 & 14-15.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Feeling really fortunate for that intense stretch of winter weather in mid January.  Outside of that 13 day stretch we basically had no winter.  Even though palmboy was a troll there's no doubt winter's are getting extremely wimpy, and apparently heading towards non-existent if trends continue.

I think everyone needs to remember also that this is a strong el nino winter. Those are literally THE worst possible outcome for winter lovers in this region. Also, what comes up must come down, and I don't think people realize how spoiled we were as a region for many years just a short time ago. You want to see a bunch of wimpy winters? Take a time machine back to the 1930s-50s. 

 

I wanted to look at something I've never really calculated. the average annual peak snow depth per decade at Detroit. It's crazy how relatively steady things have remained for a while when you add up the good and not so good winters of a decade. 

1890s- 10
1900s- 12
1910s- 10
1920s- 8
1930s- 7
1940s- 6 
1950s- 7
1960s- 7
1970s- 9
1980s- 9
1990s- 9
2000s- 9
2010s- 11
2020s- 9

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

What are some lesser remembered events that formed you all's love of weather?

For me it's January 7th, 2008, going from a zero risk at all locally in the morning to being under a Tornado Watch by the evening and losing our sheds roof to the storms that came through. 

Event is also notable for having a PDS watch issued in 5% TOR areas.

[bowtie`]

[Stebo]

34 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

I would have to imagine if this doesn't change dramatically in the next week we will be in for an early spring in michigan. Most of our early spring is moderated by ice covered lakes.

[Chambana]

First tray of bacon wrapped brats for the smoker are done for the SB, with my homemade rub. Onto the smoker slow and  low at 225 and then brushed in my homemade bbq sauce, back on the smoker for 30 minutes, and the sauce creates a glaze/crust. Next up, wings and poppers!

[RCNYILWX]

I think everyone needs to remember also that this is a strong el nino winter. Those are literally THE worst possible outcome for winter lovers in this region. Also, what comes up must come down, and I don't think people realize how spoiled we were as a region for many years just a short time ago. You want to see a bunch of wimpy winters? Take a time machine back to the 1930s-50s. 
 
I wanted to look at something I've never really calculated. the average annual peak snow depth per decade at Detroit. It's crazy how relatively steady things have remained for a while when you add up the good and not so good winters of a decade. 
1890s- 10
1900s- 12
1910s- 10
1920s- 8
1930s- 7
1940s- 6 
1950s- 7
1960s- 7
1970s- 9
1980s- 9
1990s- 9
2000s- 9
2010s- 11
2020s- 9

You nailed it, I think with that stretch alone we got a higher end stretch of wintet than expected. Obviously for those who didn't benefit it's been a exceptionally lean winter.

For whatever amount of background climate warming you want to add to potential seasonal outcomes, betting on a objectively good winter for winter enthusiasts in a strong El Niño is a losing bet. 09-10 as a moderate to strong El Niño was essentially a unicorn for the areas that had BN temps and AN snow, including here in the Chicago area.

02-03 was a moderate Niño that gave eastern portions of the sub-forum a solid winter, though it was cool and dry out here.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[Stevo6899]

On 2/9/2024 at 1:04 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Many storms take that path and strengthen without producing 18-24"+ totals. You need a supercharged storm to get that, and those in this region of the country are EXTREMELY rare. Chicago has gotten lucky a few times, but if its a "west" thing, than why do areas of eastern Iowa have worse big storm climo than us? Yes different strokes indeed, fortunately for me, Ill be able to have our climo cooperate more than you will, wanting no cold, snowcover, or overcast skies in winter, just 2'+ storms 

Storms the last 20 years:

In the last 20 years (2004-2023):

………..DTW….ORD

6”+ --- 37 ---- 27

8”+ --- 18 ---- 12

10”+ -- 9 ----- 9

12”+ -- 2 ----- 4

14”+ -- 1 ----- 2

16”+ -- 1 ----- 2

18”+ -- 0 ----- 2

24”+ -- 0 ----- 0

Lol once again you're missing the point. Many storms take that path and yes not all are big dogs. The ones that need to track favorable for us, lose energy to coastals, limiting our big dog potential. 4-1 in favor of chicago 16+, and 10-4 > foot. All that needs to be said.

[Stevo6899]

3 hours ago, Chambana said:

First tray of bacon wrapped brats for the smoker are done for the SB, with my homemade rub. Onto the smoker slow and  low at 225 and then brushed in my homemade bbq sauce, back on the smoker for 30 minutes, and the sauce creates a glaze/crust. Next up, wings and poppers!

It's a weird feeling today, with disappointment still mixed in. Usually its just a social event day for us in detroit and watch some of the game, but with the lions choking it away, I don't think I can watch today. Still bummed out. It just bugs me to see the 49ers players walking around like they are the shit, when they should've lost to the packers and the lions. I hope the chiefs destroy them today.