Winter '23-'24 Piss and Moan/Banter Thread

[mnchaserguy]

60 degrees in Minnesota at the beginning of February on the GFS is not something I want to see.


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[Malacka11]

Keeping it $1.50 with yall if I had to choose between another couple weeks of actual winter or getting the lake comfortably swimmable ASAP... I think unless the former actually delivers something historic, I'd have to choose the latter. Just feeling a little blue-balled still like @Baum said. 

[mississaugasnow]

3 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Extended GFS looking warm after early next week with mostly rain threats except maybe early next week due to the lingering cold HP in Quebec. 

Chances of a futilty winter keep going up with each passing day. A wasted week of cold. @mississaugasnow

Ya, this period of cold and every other day light snow of 0.5" where I live has probably saved this from being an F winter. 

I have about 3" on the ground now, river frozen, and another 1-4" system plus freezing rain coming Tuesday. 

Averages are bottoming out right now at 30F for a high and quickly gain 6F to 36F in 5 weeks. 

[mississaugasnow]

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

Keeping it $1.50 with yall if I had to choose between another couple weeks of actual winter or getting the lake comfortably swimmable ASAP... I think unless the former actually delivers something historic, I'd have to choose the latter. Just feeling a little blue-balled still like @Baum said. 

Ya, biggest storm here so far is 2.3" haha. Tuesday might beat it barely but Ill pass on another parade of cutters followed by 1-2" events in February 

[Chicago Storm]

alek has turned into beavis-lite.

hate to see it.

[King James]

2 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Keeping it $1.50 with yall if I had to choose between another couple weeks of actual winter or getting the lake comfortably swimmable ASAP... I think unless the former actually delivers something historic, I'd have to choose the latter. Just feeling a little blue-balled still like @Baum said. 

The biggest shame is that our falls have been the best weather recently and that’s even further away 

 

Just give me Sep&October on repeat

[BuffaloWeather]

We got slammed here in Buffalo 70-85” the last week, hardest hit were areas just south of Buffalo 

[bowtie`]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We got slammed here in Buffalo 70-85” the last week, hardest hit were areas just south of Buffalo 

Darn, and at an elevation of only 732ft.. You are giving some of those Alp and Japanese ski resorts a run for their money with the vertically piled snow next to the roadways.

[Spartman]

13 hours ago, Pascy619 said:

Late January and the start of February looking real ugly. 

Shades of '20

[Chambana]

Winter looks to go on hiatus until at least the first week of February. Already have 50’s popping in my forecast for late January/early February. Curious to see how the pattern unfolds later into February. 

[SolidIcewx]

9 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Winter looks to go on hiatus until at least the first week of February. Already have 50’s popping in my forecast for late January/early February. Curious to see how the pattern unfolds later into February. 

That’s what I call swamp and trench weather. A mud mess like Eastern Europe in spring.

[Frog Town]

February has been our saving grace the past few years.  

[Snowstorms]

21 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Ya, this period of cold and every other day light snow of 0.5" where I live has probably saved this from being an F winter. 

I have about 3" on the ground now, river frozen, and another 1-4" system plus freezing rain coming Tuesday. 

Averages are bottoming out right now at 30F for a high and quickly gain 6F to 36F in 5 weeks. 

YYZ is still running a good 3C above average for Jan and next week's warmth will seal the deal for another warm January. Of the last 5 January's since 2019, only 2022 was below average lol. A one week long cold shot with no storm isn't going to change this winters grade from being an F - in my books. This cold shot has been nothing speculator either. 

Hoping February is better, but it's looking to start warm. 

[mississaugasnow]

8 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

YYZ is still running a good 3C above average for Jan and next week's warmth will seal the deal for another warm January. Of the last 5 January's since 2019, only 2022 was below average lol. A one week long cold shot with no storm isn't going to change this winters grade from being an F - in my books. This cold shot has been nothing speculator either. 

Hoping February is better, but it's looking to start warm. 

Im already over the -16C or 4F nights. It will end up being about 13 days in a row with snow cover so I'll take that as a win as well. 

Bring on top 5 least snowiest and spring. 

[luckyweather]

Quote

@Stebosaid: He really likes being a burden here.

not supposed to diagnose over the Internet but at this point he has earned it. been watching the guy over the years, he clearly has a comorbidity of seasonal affective disorder (sad) and obsessive compulsive disorder (ocd). I wouldn't say it's seen often but it is not incredibly rare either. the obsession with warmth / warm weather / spring arrival, looking for signs of an early spring / entry into summer is a legitimate trauma response to intense bouts of depression from the SAD. he may have had a trauma event in the winter as well, possibly a relationship ending, lost a job, a partner being unfaithful, could also be elements of deep envy of a more successful neighbor/friend/family member who excels in winter or a winter activity. 

The need to invalidate or diminish the enjoyment of the season and its attributes he sees as negative in others is dark triad manifestation, you can see a little of all - narcissism, sociopathy and psychopathy. 

Unfortunately I am being part of the problem as this is an individual that seems to feed on the energy of others reacting to and engaging with him (even things like putting weenie tags on his posts or the posts of those who contradict him, etc). Best from here forward to completely ignore his posts and if we could get a mod who is a trusted regular in the sub who can delete his comments quickly to minimize the engagement with them and ban his alts as he makes them. Until then since we're relying on board admins and other sub mods this will likely be a pretty big ongoing nuisance. That said I doubt this board is the only outlet for his mental illness, inevitable he self destructs elsewhere in life if that's the case.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, luckyweather said:

not supposed to diagnose over the Internet but at this point he has earned it. been watching the guy over the years, he clearly has a comorbidity of seasonal affective disorder (sad) and obsessive compulsive disorder (ocd). I wouldn't say it's seen often but it is not incredibly rare either. the obsession with warmth / warm weather / spring arrival, looking for signs of an early spring / entry into summer is a legitimate trauma response to intense bouts of depression from the SAD. he may have had a trauma event in the winter as well, possibly a relationship ending, lost a job, a partner being unfaithful, could also be elements of deep envy of a more successful neighbor/friend/family member who excels in winter or a winter activity. 

The need to invalidate or diminish the enjoyment of the season and its attributes he sees as negative in others is dark triad manifestation, you can see a little of all - narcissism, sociopathy and psychopathy. 

Unfortunately I am being part of the problem as this is an individual that seems to feed on the energy of others reacting to and engaging with him (even things like putting weenie tags on his posts or the posts of those who contradict him, etc). Best from here forward to completely ignore his posts and if we could get a mod who is a trusted regular in the sub who can delete his comments quickly to minimize the engagement with them and ban his alts as he makes them. Until then since we're relying on board admins and other sub mods this will likely be a pretty big ongoing nuisance. That said I doubt this board is the only outlet for his mental illness, inevitable he self destructs elsewhere in life if that's the case.

Great analysis. The childish mentality is one thing but it really probably goes deeper than that. It's the equivalent of asking your crush on a date, being rejected, then pulling out your Mr. Roger's trunk of hats, mustaches, and other thinly veiled disguises and continuing to pursue your lost cause half-assedly disguised as someone else, even though your true identity is apparent. Seems odd for an adult to be so obsessed with being a childlike burden, but we are all best off to ignore. 

[Harry Perry]

There’s something about 30°/40°’s and rain for days in January that just pisses me off.

Looking ahead, February looks like more hot mess. I’d say bring on spring but we all know that spring this year will probably end up being significantly colder than average with more rain and 40s probably all the way through May.. just out of spite to piss us all off.

I need a drink.

[mississaugasnow]

@Snowstorms Toronto will probably pass the 2011-2012 winter with this event. Top 5 is still in the game especially with the way late January and early February is looking. Though this two week stretch was nice and has scratched the winter itch. If it torches the rest of the way I wouldnt be upset 

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said:

@Snowstorms Toronto will probably pass the 2011-2012 winter with this event. Top 5 is still in the game especially with the way late January and early February is looking. Though this two week stretch was nice and has scratched the winter itch. If it torches the rest of the way I wouldnt be upset 

In the past 2 weeks I saw 14" of snow. This is why I dont like talking futility early lol. DTW is at 16.3" on the season with just over half of the snow season statistically to go.

[mississaugasnow]

12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

In the past 2 weeks I saw 14" of snow. This is why I dont like talking futility early lol. DTW is at 16.3" on the season with just over half of the snow season statistically to go.

Wow you've seen a lot. Toronto has only seen 8" in the last two weeks. But you're very optimistic when it comes to snow season haha.  It can snow in April as we've discussed a bunch but you tend to act like its a full winter month lol 

[mississaugasnow]

In my mind we are now 2/3rds done main winter. Add the fact next few weeks look bad it will need to be a pretty snow 2nd half of Feb and first bit of March 

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, mississaugasnow said:

Wow you've seen a lot. Toronto has only seen 8" in the last two weeks. But you're very optimistic when it comes to snow season haha.  It can snow in April as we've discussed a bunch but you tend to act like its a full winter month lol 

Lol no April is NOT a winter month. I just mean you usually get a little bit of snow to pad the season total, and when talking futility that season total is what we base it on. Since we've had a stretch of deep winter, now what i'm really interested in is if once this warm start to february passes, can we see a big widespread snowstorm hit the region?

[mississaugasnow]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lol no April is NOT a winter month. I just mean you usually get a little bit of snow to pad the season total, and when talking futility that season total is what we base it on. Since we've had a stretch of deep winter, now what i'm really interested in is if once this warm start to february passes, can we see a big widespread snowstorm hit the region?

Yep, for Toronto they will need about 14" between February-April to stay out of top 5. Completely doable to get 14" in that time period. 

Average probably wont even come close since we would need 28" in that time period and if that happens that would be something historic haha 

[mississaugasnow]

The southern/western part of the GTA could be looking at the least amount of snow in over 30 years. Hamilton has only recorded 8" so far this season and they would need 16" more to not have the least snowy winter in that time frame. 

[michsnowfreak]

24 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Yep, for Toronto they will need about 14" between February-April to stay out of top 5. Completely doable to get 14" in that time period. 

Average probably wont even come close since we would need 28" in that time period and if that happens that would be something historic haha 

Very doable for Toronto. Although far from a lock. If Detroit saw not one flake the rest of the way (impossible lol), it would be the 7th least snowy winter. To avoid top 10, just 1.8" more is needed and to avoid top 20, 8.9" more is needed. 

 

Much like this stretch of deep winter we are coming out of, should there indeed be a sharp reversal from warmth to cold as we head towards mid-Feb, that still does not sort out the haves and have nots of snowstorms until we are closer in.

[Snowstorms]

3 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Wow you've seen a lot. Toronto has only seen 8" in the last two weeks. But you're very optimistic when it comes to snow season haha.  It can snow in April as we've discussed a bunch but you tend to act like its a full winter month lol 

YYZ at 14" as of yesterday. About 3" away from 2011-12 and 7" away from the next lowest seasons (09-10 and 52-53). They got lucky with the clipper snow this past week but nothing special. The two big storms we saw earlier in the month were both primarily rain followed by a 7-8 day cold shot, which for the most part, wasn't really exceptional, even by Detroit standards where they've experienced far worse (i.e., Jan 2022, Jan 2019, or early Jan 2018). Now back to the warmth this week and next which has become a common theme in the last 4/5 winters. 

Not a fan of April snow. Let's take Detroit for an example. The average high by early April is around 50F or higher. That's almost 20 degrees above freezing. Any snow that falls will melt within a few days max and snow ratios suck. 

[Snowstorms]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Very doable for Toronto. Although far from a lock. If Detroit saw not one flake the rest of the way (impossible lol), it would be the 7th least snowy winter. To avoid top 10, just 1.8" more is needed and to avoid top 20, 8.9" more is needed. 

 

Much like this stretch of deep winter we are coming out of, should there indeed be a sharp reversal from warmth to cold as we head towards mid-Feb, that still does not sort out the haves and have nots of snowstorms until we are closer in.

What are the top 10 least snowiest winters in Detroit? 

[mississaugasnow]

37 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

YYZ at 14" as of yesterday. About 3" away from 2011-12 and 7" away from the next lowest seasons (09-10 and 52-53). They got lucky with the clipper snow this past week but nothing special. The two big storms we saw earlier in the month were both primarily rain followed by a 7-8 day cold shot, which for the most part, wasn't really exceptional, even by Detroit standards where they've experienced far worse (i.e., Jan 2022, Jan 2019, or early Jan 2018). Now back to the warmth this week and next which has become a common theme in the last 4/5 winters. 

Not a fan of April snow. Let's take Detroit for an example. The average high by early April is around 50F or higher. That's almost 20 degrees above freezing. Any snow that falls will melt within a few days max and snow ratios suck. 

Theres a big cluster of around 27-31" in the 6-10 least snowy winters for Toronto. 

Not trying to cherry pick data as its the easiest right now to grab but from 2013 to 2023 (11 seasons) Toronto had 6 Aprils record under 1"  2 Aprils record 1-2" 3 Aprils record 3-8" (2016 was 8") 

April always sees snow but it's mostly under 2". Still counts towards the yearly snowfall no doubt but the odds are heavily against anything more than a coating 

[cyclone77]

Ready 2 cicada

[bowtie`]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Ready 2 cicada

You must have some "Arnold" type cicadas there in Erie.