Winter '23-'24 Piss and Moan/Banter Thread

[WestMichigan]

1 minute ago, frostfern said:

I want a thing with a big blade to brake off packed down snow and ice.  Snowblower is kind of useless if you procrastinate and pack the snow down hard by driving over it.  With winters lately I’m used to just driving over the snow and waiting for it to melt.

I was not sure it was going to melt before the coming cold so I had to chip it all off manually so that it doesn’t become a skating rink.  I somehow injured my rotator cuff shoving the shovel into the ice.  Ugh.  Maybe should have salted it first to get it softer.

I have a 54" blade but a lot of the time a blower would be much better.

[Lightning]

12 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

I experienced a freak lake event in Toledo in the early 90's.  Weirdist  thing I've ever experienced and remember looking at the radar in disbelief.  Don't remember the set up but it's the only time i've experienced it in my life time.  

I had a roommate at MTU from Midland area.  He we was a weather buff too.  He talked about the one time parts of Midland MI getting LES event ~4" off Saginaw Bay (and Huron) ... note this would have been in the 1980s.  

[frostfern]

11 minutes ago, Lightning said:

I have not heard of Toledo or Monroe ever getting a big east wind LES event.  I know it is possible and probably has happened.  At MTU (Houghton) a couple of my best LES events were E/ENE winds off Superior but they were not common to get at all.

Its most likely to happen as local enhancement during a synoptic event IMO.  Lake Huron definitely contributes to upping totals locally on the east side of the state.  It would be more rare to see lake effect bands from the east in the core of an arctic airmass though IMO, as east wind tends to be dry in that scenario (high pressure to the north causes strong subsidence).  I suppose it could happen but I not aware of any major cases.  Would be interesting.

[Snowstorms]

42 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Im hoping we can get enough of a front end dump and backside 1-2" that we aren't fully looking at bare ground next week with the cold. Toronto saw 5cm yesterday so up to 23cm on the season. 

Might be another thread the needle event. With the marginal temperatures, it won't be anything crazy but should push Toronto above 30cm for the season. Yeah last thing I want is bare ground and extreme cold like how Jan 2015 was. Here's a list of Toronto's biggest snowstorms since 1995. I used North York cause YYZ is a joke. It sucks Environment Canada has gotten rid of so many reporting stations over the years meanwhile our American counterparts have a station in every county lol. 

I didn't know how to make the image smaller, my bad lol. 

[Lightning]

2 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Its most likely to happen as local enhancement during a synoptic event IMO.  Lake Huron definitely contributes to upping totals locally on the east side of the state.  It would be more rare to see lake effect bands from the east in the core of an arctic airmass though IMO, as east wind tends to be dry in that scenario (high pressure to the north causes strong subsidence).  I suppose it could happen but I not aware of any major cases.  Would be interesting.

There have been some big LES events in the Thumb down to Port Huron.  With the right NNE wind MBY had received a couple inches from Huron.  It is similar to how Milwaukee down to Gary get LES events.  They just don't make news/headlines when they happen being rural.  Definitely not as common as the W to NW wind LES belts.

[michsnowfreak]

22 hours ago, Stebo said:

Not in a Nino, which is why if we don't get much Friday that would almost seal it for a below normal snow for the season. You can't just punt Dec and January and hope that Feb/Mar pay off.

Theres a difference between below avg snow & futility though. Feb Ninos tend to be a mixed bag snow-wise.

[SolidIcewx]

Warm nose is gonna melt everything before backend comes thru. Taking some hopium and praying it’s overdone a bit. You would thing nighttime would help a bit with that.

[Stebo]

Cromartie, since I know you are reading this, stop making accounts. You have made 7 accounts already that have been banned in the last week. Take a hint, you are banned, go find another place to annoy.

[IWXwx]

52 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Cromartie, since I know you are reading this, stop making accounts. You have made 7 accounts already that have been banned in the last week. Take a hint, you are banned, go find another place to annoy.

Oh, I don’t know, it may have been kind of fun having him around with this upcoming arctic dump.

[Snowstorms]

@mississaugasnow I looked at the records to rank the snowiest month's on record in Toronto.  I used North York since YYZ sucks. North York only has records going back to 1995 so the rankings are a combination of YYZ (pre 1997) and North York (post 1997). I filtered out any snowy month pre 1997 as I was only focused on the rankings for the last 20-30 years. So the rankings are from 1938-2023. 

Note: If we were to hypothetically include all Toronto records that go back to 1840, then Mar 1870 takes the cake for the snowiest month on record, by far. A staggering 62" in one month lol.  

 

 

We can appreciate the fact that we've experienced the snowiest Jan (x2), Feb (x2), and Mar (x2) on record. Dec up there as well with 3 top 6, but Dec 1951 takes the cake with 34.1" (which btw was a moderate Nino). 

 

[Snowstorms]

24 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Oh, I don’t know, it may have been kind of fun having him around with this upcoming arctic dump.

him: 

[mississaugasnow]

47 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

@mississaugasnow I looked at the records to rank the snowiest month's on record in Toronto.  I used North York since YYZ sucks. North York only has records going back to 1995 so the rankings are a combination of YYZ (pre 1997) and North York (post 1997). I filtered out any snowy month pre 1997 as I was only focused on the rankings for the last 20-30 years. So the rankings are from 1938-2023. 

Note: If we were to hypothetically include all Toronto records that go back to 1840, then Mar 1870 takes the cake for the snowiest month on record, by far. A staggering 62" in one month lol.  

 

 

We can appreciate the fact that we've experienced the snowiest Jan (x2), Feb (x2), and Mar (x2) on record. Dec up there as well with 3 top 6, but Dec 1951 takes the cake with 34.1" (which btw was a moderate Nino). 

 

So I wonder if that's the new normal going forward. A bit similar to I95 cities. Feast or famine starts to become typical 

[mississaugasnow]

Last 30 years has seen snowiest months and also 4 out of the 5 least snowy winters. This current one is on watch to join the club 

[Snowstorms]

13 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

So I wonder if that's the new normal going forward. A bit similar to I95 cities. Feast or famine starts to become typical 

I can't lie though, apart from 21-22, every winter since 19-20 we've been extremely lucky. 90% of the major snow fell with marginal temps. For example, temperatures were around 31-33F with that March storm last year that dropped 10-12". 

And if we continue on this warming trend, it may just become feast or famine. And these two storms this week are exposing it nicely. 40+years ago if we had two sub 980 low's in a week, with a track like that, we'd be buried. 

[mississaugasnow]

2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I can't lie though, apart from 21-22, every winter since 19-20 we've been extremely lucky. 90% of the major snow fell with marginal temps. For example, temperatures were around 31-33F with that March storm last year that dropped 10-12". 

And if we continue on this warming trend, it may just become feast or famine. And these two storms this week are exposing it nicely. 40+years ago if we had two sub 980 low's in a week, with a track like that, we'd be buried. 

Ya, my new location has meant famine. We got 6" last March

[Snowstorms]

1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said:

Ya, my new location has meant famine. We got 6" last March

Ya if we were above freezing up here, it would've been too warm for you down south then. And now we're both on the cusp of rain this year haha.

It all started since that 2015-16 super nino. I wonder if this will become the new norm or it's just an anomaly and we are still dealing with it's effects (i.e., WPAC warm pool). 

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

So I wonder if that's the new normal going forward. A bit similar to I95 cities. Feast or famine starts to become typical 

Actually the inverse is pretty bad too. Been a battle of extremes over the last 20-30 years. An actual feast vs famine. For example, Dec 2006, Dec 2015, and Dec 2018 are the 1st, 2nd, and 4th least snowiest December's on record at YYZ, respectively. 7/10 least snowiest December's on record have occurred since 1998. If expanded to top 13, then its more like 10/13 since 1998 lol. 

[Stebo]

4 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Oh, I don’t know, it may have been kind of fun having him around with this upcoming arctic dump.

Oh we can still make fun, he will read everything has he shrivels up like his palms.

[Lightning]

5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Oh, I don’t know, it may have been kind of fun having him around with this upcoming arctic dump.

[mississaugasnow]

16 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Ya if we were above freezing up here, it would've been too warm for you down south then. And now we're both on the cusp of rain this year haha.

It all started since that 2015-16 super nino. I wonder if this will become the new norm or it's just an anomaly and we are still dealing with it's effects (i.e., WPAC warm pool). 

When's the last time we saw so much vanishing snow? Toronto is up to 5" on the month but it's a lot of events like yesterday where it melts within a few hours of falling. Im still pretty convinced top 5 least snowiest season is very doable but we keep seeing 0.5-1" days haha 

Ill have to check data again but I believe top 10 in the last 90 years is a near lock 

[mississaugasnow]

Today is another one. If you go to bed at 8pm and wake up at 6am you'll have no idea it snowed yet Toronto will probably record another 1-3" snowfall 

[mississaugasnow]

23 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Theres a difference between below avg snow & futility though. Feb Ninos tend to be a mixed bag snow-wise.

Would top 5-10 be considered just below avg to you or futility? Outside of those it's just below average year to me but a top 5 or top 10 least snowy winter is pretty bad 

[IMADreamer]

The last two storms missed a county north, the Tuesday storm is going to be a few counties south but we get all of the cold. Nothing worse than sub zero on bare ground.  It's just dumb.  Starting to think I may never have a real winter again. 

[KokomoWX]

29 minutes ago, IMADreamer said:

The last two storms missed a county north, the Tuesday storm is going to be a few counties south but we get all of the cold. Nothing worse than sub zero on bare ground.  It's just dumb.  Starting to think I may never have a real winter again. 

Same.  This morning, I managed a wee but of slushy stuff before the rain washed it all away.  

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Would top 5-10 be considered just below avg to you or futility? Outside of those it's just below average year to me but a top 5 or top 10 least snowy winter is pretty bad 

Oh top 10 is definitely futility. I'd say anything over 20" is just below avg. The lowest winter of my lifetime is Detroits 16th least snowy (1997-98, 23.4"), although I was in my mother's womb during 1982-83 lol (11th least snowy, 20.0").

[mississaugasnow]

20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh top 10 is definitely futility. I'd say anything over 20" is just below avg. The lowest winter of my lifetime is Detroits 16th least snowy (1997-98, 23.4"), although I was in my mother's womb during 1982-83 lol (11th least snowy, 20.0").

Well I hope we both get a good front end thump today/tonight so we can go into the cold week with some snow on the ground 

[Lightning]

22 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh top 10 is definitely futility. I'd say anything over 20" is just below avg. The lowest winter of my lifetime is Detroits 16th least snowy (1997-98, 23.4"), although I was in my mother's womb during 1982-83 lol (11th least snowy, 20.0").

I would go with bottom 20% as being futility.  

[Snowstorms]

3 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

When's the last time we saw so much vanishing snow? Toronto is up to 5" on the month but it's a lot of events like yesterday where it melts within a few hours of falling. Im still pretty convinced top 5 least snowiest season is very doable but we keep seeing 0.5-1" days haha 

Ill have to check data again but I believe top 10 in the last 90 years is a near lock 

Half that 5" came from the storm earlier this week that washed away a few hours later. Without any sustained cold, the snow can't stick around for more than a few hours. That'll likely change tomorrow but the pattern dries up too lol. That's the primary issue with some Nino's. You may have a juiced up STJ that may offer up bigger storm opportunities than Nina's, but the upper air pattern in Nino's sucks for our region which leads to either suppressed or upper great lakes storms. Some Nino's are great, some not. 

[Snowstorms]

39 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh top 10 is definitely futility. I'd say anything over 20" is just below avg. The lowest winter of my lifetime is Detroits 16th least snowy (1997-98, 23.4"), although I was in my mother's womb during 1982-83 lol (11th least snowy, 20.0").

I wonder how you'd feel or react if you experienced 4 top 5 futility winters in a mere 10 years. I don't think anyone on this forum knows futility better than us in Toronto. Although in those same 10 years, we had exceptional winters like 07-08, 08-09, and 13-14, the stinkers outweigh the good ones. Here's the numbers from YYZ just for laughs.

06-07: 23.7" (4th)

09-10: 20.6" (2nd) 

11-12: 16.9" (1st)

15-16: 25.9" (5th) 

For snow lovers in Toronto, this was a nightmare. On that note, since 2019-20 every winter except 21-22 has been warm to exceptionally warm. Although we finished above average, it was all by luck. All marginal snow events which goes back to what @mississaugasnowwas saying. Would be nice to experience both cold and snowy winters like the 60s and 70s featured. We're basically reliving the late 80's and early 90's right now. 

[michsnowfreak]

16 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I wonder how you'd feel or react if you experienced 4 top 5 futility winters in a mere 10 years. I don't think anyone on this forum knows futility better than us in Toronto. Although in those same 10 years, we had exceptional winters like 07-08, 08-09, and 13-14, the stinkers outweigh the good ones. Here's the numbers from YYZ just for laughs.

06-07: 23.7" (4th)

09-10: 20.6" (2nd) 

11-12: 16.9" (1st)

15-16: 25.9" (5th) 

For snow lovers in Toronto, this was a nightmare. On that note, since 2019-20 every winter except 21-22 has been warm to exceptionally warm. Although we finished above average, it was all by luck. All marginal snow events which goes back to what @mississaugasnowwas saying. Would be nice to experience both cold and snowy winters like the 60s and 70s featured. We're basically reliving the late 80's and early 90's right now. 

4 top 5 futility, yikes I would be as ornery as cromartie. I would definitely agree that nobody in the forum knows futility as much as Toronto (relative to their average that is). We've had futility months and we certainly have had undesirable winters. But this is why I constantly harping on the fact that regardless of how bad a pattern looks, when you live in a region that gets snow thru April, you just can't jump the gun early.