Winter '23-'24 Piss and Moan/Banter Thread

[nwohweather]

hey man i hope you're taking advantage of the 50s to near 60 next three days over there. 

Big fan. #Team50°+

[OrdIowPitMsp]

54 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Sure miss big December storms like this one 14 years ago today in 2009.  8-12" for the QC, about a foot for much of central and eastern Iowa.  At least we have events like this to look back on and reminisce lol.

 

This was a great storm. I was living in Iowa City and a student at the U at the time. Classic blizzard conditions and 12-14” of accumulation. We went sledding using cafeteria trays. 

[hardypalmguy]

Sure miss big December storms like this one 14 years ago today in 2009.  8-12" for the QC, about a foot for much of central and eastern Iowa.  At least we have events like this to look back on and reminisce lol.
 

#decembernewnormal

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Sure miss big December storms like this one 14 years ago today in 2009.  8-12" for the QC, about a foot for much of central and eastern Iowa.  At least we have events like this to look back on and reminisce lol.

 

What's interesting is that locally, Decembers were great in the 2000s and pissy the last decade, yet despite the contrast, White Christmases have remained steady around 50%. 

 

Definitely not a fan of mild Decembers, but with lots of Christmas activities it's a lot busier than January/February so easier to forget about the crappy weather. Time will tell if February is once again the star month of winter. 

[sbnwx85]

It’s actually been horribly boring around here since the end of July. The last non-temperature related Watch or Warning we’ve had here was the severe weather event on July 29. 

[CheeselandSkies]

8 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Sure miss big December storms like this one 14 years ago today in 2009.  8-12" for the QC, about a foot for much of central and eastern Iowa.  At least we have events like this to look back on and reminisce lol.

 

That brought down a tree over the mouth of our driveway (I was living at home with my parents near Stoughton, WI at the time).

 

 

My dad and I both took off work and it took us the entire day to clear the driveway using a John Deere 112 garden tractor with a snowblower attachment (single stage, so it couldn't throw that paste for shit) and a little Toro push snowblower. I have video, too but I killed my old YouTube channel. Maybe I'll reupload it next year for the 15th anniversary.

 

[Cary67]

On 12/7/2023 at 9:38 AM, hardypalmguy said:

hey man i hope you're taking advantage of the 50s to near 60 next three days over there. 

Have to adapt. Nothing says Xmas like firepit, Xmas lights, and a Buffalo Trace Old Fashioned.

[rainsucks]

wouldn’t be surprised to see some March 2012-esque departures by the end of the month for the extreme northern parts of the sub given how warm it’s been and will continue to be for the foreseeable future, and also due to the fact that there’s quite literally no cold air on this side of the globe.

[Chambana]

We literally went from a triple La Niña to a strong borderline super Nino. Brutal. 

[cyclone77]

27 minutes ago, Chambana said:

We literally went from a triple La Niña to a strong borderline super Nino. Brutal. 

Maybe next winter we'll get nonina and have non-stop action from Thanksgiving to Easter.

[hawkeye_wx]

14 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Sure miss big December storms like this one 14 years ago today in 2009.  8-12" for the QC, about a foot for much of central and eastern Iowa.  At least we have events like this to look back on and reminisce lol.

I recorded 10.5".  Sadly, there has not been a single 6-inch snow event, in December + before Xmas, since that 2009 storm.

[ILSNOW]

I remember a time when December rolled around we actually had storms to track and it would actually snow. These days we impatiently wait for our 2 week window in mid January where we will have a couple of near misses as the arctic air suppresses the storm south of us and Oklahoma City gets a foot of snow. We will then proceed to warm back up until we get a few inches of snow in April. I do miss the good times of following every model run!!!

[Baum]

2 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

I remember a time when December rolled around we actually had storms to track and it would actually snow. These days we impatiently wait for our 2 week window in mid January where we will have a couple of near misses as the arctic air suppresses the storm south of us and Oklahoma City gets a foot of snow. We will then proceed to warm back up until we get a few inches of snow in April. I do miss the good times of following every model run!!!

I remember when it snowed in December and didnt snow at all in February. I remember when it didn't snow in December but snowed in February. In the end, we usually find that magic 32" mark.

[michsnowfreak]

11 minutes ago, Baum said:

I remember when it snowed in December and didnt snow at all in February. I remember when it didn't snow in December but snowed in February. In the end, we usually find that magic 32" mark.

Exactly. In the 1990s February was a snowless torch. Now we get buried most years.

[CheeselandSkies]

Now that I've finally caught a sig on my own, just to prove to myself that I can, thinking about joining a CoD chase tour in the spring.

[Malacka11]

16 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Now that I've finally caught a sig on my own, just to prove to myself that I can, thinking about joining a CoD chase tour in the spring.

That really was a one of a kind experience you earned yourself that day. I'd sign up with you if I weren't perpetually broke. I still need to replace the fender that my lil tornado incident cost me... at least all the glass and the side mirror has been long done. Need to paint the mirror though, it's gray to the rest of the shitbox's white

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

The severe weather event down south way overperformed today

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Now that I've finally caught a sig on my own, just to prove to myself that I can, thinking about joining a CoD chase tour in the spring.

 

3 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

That really was a one of a kind experience you earned yourself that day. I'd sign up with you if I weren't perpetually broke. I still need to replace the fender that my lil tornado incident cost me... at least all the glass and the side mirror has been long done. Need to paint the mirror though, it's gray to the rest of the shitbox's white

I must have missed this. CheeselandSkies, do tell!

[Powerball]

2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The severe weather event down south way overperformed today

Saw this on Reddit, taken in Goodlettsville (northern suburb of Nashville). 

[CheeselandSkies]

32 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

I must have missed this. CheeselandSkies, do tell!

Intercepted the Keota, IA EF4 back on March 31.

I'll link to my post on StormTrack since I purged my attachments on here a few months ago (plus due to the limits I couldn't fit them all, anyway).

https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/2023-03-31-reports-ar-ia-il-in-mo-ms-tn.32371/post-376146

Not sure if you're a member there, or if you can see the attachments if you're not. If not, my photos are on Flickr as well.
 

https://flickr.com/photos/andywskies/albums/72157655308092622/

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

22 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Intercepted the Keota, IA EF4 back on March 31.

I'll link to my post on StormTrack since I purged my attachments on here a few months ago (plus due to the limits I couldn't fit them all, anyway).

https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/2023-03-31-reports-ar-ia-il-in-mo-ms-tn.32371/post-376146

Not sure if you're a member there, or if you can see the attachments if you're not. If not, my photos are on Flickr as well.
 

https://flickr.com/photos/andywskies/albums/72157655308092622/

 

 

So cool, im taking a look!

[michsnowfreak]

When talking trends....clearly the recent trend is Decembers suck and Februarys are the best month of winter. But when you plug in different time periods into xmacis, you can see what trends were when making time periods longer or shorter. For instance, the last 100 year trend at Detroit has shown ZERO warming in Jan-Feb so the entire warming of winter (which isnt much) has been December.

POR (1874-2022)
Dec warmed 2.1F, gotten 0.19” wetter & 0.7” snowier
Jan warmed 0.4F, gotten 0.12” drier & 2.1” snowier
Feb warmed 2.9F, gotten 0.36” drier & 2.8” snowier

100 years (1923-2022)
Dec warmed 2.6F, gotten 0.25” wetter & 2.5” snowier
Jan COOLED 0.5F, gotten 0.13” drier & 5.4” snowier
Feb warmed 0.5F, gotten 0.21” wetter, & 7.3” snowier

50 years (1973-2022)
Dec warmed 5.9F, gotten 0.40” drier, 6.5” less snowy
Jan warmed 4.0F, gotten 0.17” wetter, 1.8” snowier
Feb warmed 2.7F, gotten 0.64” wetter, 10.5” snowier!

30 years (1993-2022)
Dec warmed 3.4F, gotten 0.70” wetter, 0.2” snowier
Jan warmed 0.6F, gotten 0.73” drier, 2.2” less snowy
Feb COOLED 1.0F, gotten 0.51” wetter, 12.6” snowier!
 

 

[Chinook]

Two years ago today: Mayfield tornado outbreak

back on 12/10/1995, an arctic cold front came through the Great Lakes, along with this mini-polar vortex at 500mb leading the way. The combination of synoptic/lake effect snow events gave Sault Ste Marie 56.5" of snow and the snow depth jumped up by 31". Near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, over 30" of snow happened. As you can see on here, the 850mb temp dropped to -20C with 40 knot winds at Buffalo.

 

 

[Powerball]

53 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Two years ago today: Mayfield tornado outbreak

back on 12/10/1995, an arctic cold front came through the Great Lakes, along with this mini-polar vortex at 500mb leading the way. The combination of synoptic/lake effect snow events gave Sault Ste Marie 56.5" of snow and the snow depth jumped up by 31". Near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, over 30" of snow happened. As you can see on here, the 850mb temp dropped to -20C with 40 knot winds at Buffalo.

 

 

December 2021 was definitely unprecedented severe weather wise. Had 2 of the worst outbreaks in history, let alone in December or in the winter time.

DFW also shattered its record warmest December on record by a whopping 7.3 degrees, warm enough that it even surpassed all but 10 of the warmest Novembers on record.

[hardypalmguy]

When talking trends....clearly the recent trend is Decembers suck and Februarys are the best month of winter. But when you plug in different time periods into xmacis, you can see what trends were when making time periods longer or shorter. For instance, the last 100 year trend at Detroit has shown ZERO warming in Jan-Feb so the entire warming of winter (which isnt much) has been December.
POR (1874-2022)
Dec warmed 2.1F, gotten 0.19” wetter & 0.7” snowier
Jan warmed 0.4F, gotten 0.12” drier & 2.1” snowier
Feb warmed 2.9F, gotten 0.36” drier & 2.8” snowier
100 years (1923-2022)
Dec warmed 2.6F, gotten 0.25” wetter & 2.5” snowier
Jan COOLED 0.5F, gotten 0.13” drier & 5.4” snowier
Feb warmed 0.5F, gotten 0.21” wetter, & 7.3” snowier
50 years (1973-2022)
Dec warmed 5.9F, gotten 0.40” drier, 6.5” less snowy
Jan warmed 4.0F, gotten 0.17” wetter, 1.8” snowier
Feb warmed 2.7F, gotten 0.64” wetter, 10.5” snowier!
30 years (1993-2022)
Dec warmed 3.4F, gotten 0.70” wetter, 0.2” snowier
Jan warmed 0.6F, gotten 0.73” drier, 2.2” less snowy
Feb COOLED 1.0F, gotten 0.51” wetter, 12.6” snowier!
 
 

Those coping drugs must be some good stuff.

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, Chinook said:

Two years ago today: Mayfield tornado outbreak

back on 12/10/1995, an arctic cold front came through the Great Lakes, along with this mini-polar vortex at 500mb leading the way. The combination of synoptic/lake effect snow events gave Sault Ste Marie 56.5" of snow and the snow depth jumped up by 31". Near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, over 30" of snow happened. As you can see on here, the 850mb temp dropped to -20C with 40 knot winds at Buffalo.

 

 

Remember it well that morning. Thermo was pegged at ZERO with a 30-35 mph wind in your face. For early winter it was miserable in NWMI. And we didn't get the big totals they had called for to add insult to injury. 

[bowtie`]

Finally , some good news. The sunsets are getting later now. Last night was at 5:19p.m.. Tonight it was  5;20p,.m.. We are on the long road back to sunlight now.

[Chinook]

Be glad you are not in Kazakhstan/Russia/Mongolia/China. I think this extremely cold air mass has been developing for 1-2 weeks. Surgut to Omsk had -20F to -40F for their low temps, with high temps nearly the same. It was -30F temperatures in Kazakhstan. Nearly all of the rest of the world (not including Russia) was at or above normal temperatures from Dec 3-9 according to reanalysis plot.

[WestMichigan]

3 hours ago, bowtie` said:

Finally , some good news. The sunsets are getting later now. Last night was at 5:19p.m.. Tonight it was  5;20p,.m.. We are on the long road back to sunlight now.

Daylight isn't getting longer yet, but sunsets are getting later.

[Powerball]

11 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Daylight isn't getting longer yet, but sunsets are getting later.

 

Right.

Will have to wait until after New Years in order for the days in totality to get longer.