Hurricane Agnes Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 3 hours ago, anthonyweather said: Hopefully some got a lesson in using those 10:1 maps . The 10:1 maps aren't the problem. It's the Kuchera (clown) ones! Of course this early in the season, the chances of getting a 10:1 ratio snow isn't very likely with little or no antecedent cold. With the non-diurnal temp outcome from an overnight CFP, my "high" of 45 was at midnight and I bottomed out at 34 this morning. Currently an overcast breezy 41 with dp 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 18 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The 10:1 maps aren't the problem. It's the Kuchera (clown) ones! Of course this early in the season, the chances of getting a 10:1 ratio snow isn't very likely with little or no antecedent cold. With the non-diurnal temp outcome from an overnight CFP, my "high" of 45 was at midnight and I bottomed out at 34 this morning. Currently an overcast breezy 41 with dp 28. Those maps are a weenie mess and anyone who take those seriously...well, I don't know what to say. Brisk night w/a projected low of 25F, lights on, not horrible/no blowtorch weather wise... 40F/breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The 10:1 maps aren't the problem. It's the Kuchera (clown) ones! Of course this early in the season, the chances of getting a 10:1 ratio snow isn't very likely with little or no antecedent cold. With the non-diurnal temp outcome from an overnight CFP, my "high" of 45 was at midnight and I bottomed out at 34 this morning. Currently an overcast breezy 41 with dp 28. The Kuchera maps actually showed lower totals than the 10:1 maps for this event. For the big events they can get really weenie but for borderline events like this they're generally the more accurate maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 I think payback time with the increased snow chances will be coming around Martin Luther KIng's Birthday. Otherwise, until then - welcome to the typical winter for Tn cold with rainy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 1 hour ago, LVblizzard said: The Kuchera maps actually showed lower totals than the 10:1 maps for this event. For the big events they can get really weenie but for borderline events like this they're generally the more accurate maps. I was posting some of the model maps in this thread and at least for those of us in SE PA and into Jersey/Delaware, the 10:1s weren't showing much, if anything east of Chester County except for the early NAM runs that as predicted, NAM'd people. Currently still breezy and 37 with dp 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 7 hours ago, LVblizzard said: The Kuchera maps actually showed lower totals than the 10:1 maps for this event. For the big events they can get really weenie but for borderline events like this they're generally the more accurate maps. Hmm...never noticed that? They always seem to be the jacked-up weenieville totals...I'll take note. 28F/DP 23F @ 2:20am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 15 hours ago, LVblizzard said: The Kuchera maps actually showed lower totals than the 10:1 maps for this event. For the big events they can get really weenie but for borderline events like this they're generally the more accurate maps. 8 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Hmm...never noticed that? They always seem to be the jacked-up weenieville totals...I'll take note. 28F/DP 23F @ 2:20am This observation of LVblizzard matches my observations as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Nothing wintry exciting as far as the eye can see. Rain Sun into Mon is about it. 44F/DP24F/Indoor Hum 33F *If I drag my feet along the living room rug and touch something I would be able to supply electricity for all of North Wales...my hair is wigging out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Nothing wintry exciting as far as the eye can see. Rain Sun into Mon is about it. 44F/DP24F/Indoor Hum 33F *If I drag my feet along the living room rug and touch something I would be able to supply electricity for all of North Wales...my hair is wigging out as well.Gfs trying to spin something confusing Wednesday with wintry in the elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 hour ago, anthonyweather said: Gfs trying to spin something confusing Wednesday with wintry in the elevations . For most of us in this subforum this is a super long shot in receiving anything. No blow torch which is good but nothing really to follow except rain Sun/Mon... 39F/Expected low 23F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 52 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: For most of us in this subforum this is a super long shot in receiving anything. No blow torch which is good but nothing really to follow except rain Sun/Mon... 39F/Expected low 23F Not that it matters this far out but the 18z GFS takes that low up over Pittsburgh and into western NY. If that happened we might have a good shot at severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 PA Ski instructors nightmare, Vermont is getting right before the holidays and we gave back most our man made snow with the rain storms... nothing cold enouugh to make substantial snow before new years either. Need at least 72 hours of below 32 degrees to make snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 Colder today with many spots in the county struggling to escape the 30's for high temps today. Warmer over the weekend with a pretty big Nor'easter coming up the coast by Sunday evening. The track will be too far inland or close to the coast to allow for anything but rain. Although we could see some snow flurries by Monday night. Temps will fall back to near normal levels for December for much of next week. Records for today: High 65 (2015) / Low 4 (1989) / Rain 2.06" (1897) / Snow 8.7" (1917) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 6 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said: PA Ski instructors nightmare, Vermont is getting right before the holidays and we gave back most our man made snow with the rain storms... nothing cold enouugh to make substantial snow before new years either. Need at least 72 hours of below 32 degrees to make snow. Not really true.....wet bulb temps at night will be almost perfect for snow making all of next week once past the Monday storm. With the low December sun angle and high temps in the mountains no higher than the mid 30's from the 20th on. While not perfect there will be plenty of good runs available just in time for the holiday. Now if this was the blowtorch of 2015....different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 1 hour ago, ChescoWx said: Not really true.....wet bulb temps at night will be almost perfect for snow making all of next week once past the Monday storm. With the low December sun angle and high temps in the mountains no higher than the mid 30's from the 20th on. While not perfect there will be plenty of good runs available just in time for the holiday. Now if this was the blowtorch of 2015....different story. Theoretical perfect and actual perfect are two different things. There is a cost-risk and human scheduling element involved. I'm highly skeptical Bear Creek will be open 1/1/2024. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 Couple observations....interesting to see a true gulf low with this next system. Did not see many of those the last couple winters. Down the road I suspect this could open us up for some potential snowstorms along the east coast. I see the 12z ICON trying to spin something up on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning....get your snowblowers ready!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 14, 2023 Author Share Posted December 14, 2023 Yeah the good in the LR is you can see the STJ open up for business. The bad is + NAO and marginal airmasses mean most likely wet instead of white. However, if we see that train of gulf lows continue deeper into climo, it's hard to believe that one won't be wintry and as 2016 showed, you only need one to make it a memorable winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: Yeah the good in the LR is you can see the STJ open up for business. The bad is + NAO and marginal airmasses mean most likely wet instead of white. However, if we see that train of gulf lows continue deeper into climo, it's hard to believe that one won't be wintry and as 2016 showed, you only need one to make it a memorable winter. I always say give me the storm track to the east and I will take my chances with marginal cold that we see some snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 3 hours ago, ChescoWx said: Not really true.....wet bulb temps at night will be almost perfect for snow making all of next week once past the Monday storm. With the low December sun angle and high temps in the mountains no higher than the mid 30's from the 20th on. While not perfect there will be plenty of good runs available just in time for the holiday. Now if this was the blowtorch of 2015....different story. I'll add that I appreciate your optimism however! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 It’s definitely great to see Facebook weather pages showing a 10:1 map from the icon for Snow next week!!No wonder there’s no respect for any legitimate weather business anymore .. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 10 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: It’s definitely great to see Facebook weather pages showing a 10:1 map from the icon for Snow next week!! No wonder there’s no respect for any legitimate weather business anymore . . Right, basically those pages are fake news. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 Right, basically those pages are fake news.All about hype for numbers. It’s truly an embarrassment. Could you imagine thinking? Hey, what could go wrong here? Let me post one of the greatest models ever the icon, a week out! “Disclaimer model output only not a forecast” Yeah, no shit you just wanna hype for followers . Sickening . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 a bunch of BS for any snow until next year. The models cannot even agree right now from run to another eight hours later. 3 consecutive runs at 36 hours before the event showing accumulating snow - thats believable. Until then hook line and sinker for the gullible ones 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 My daffodils are coming along nicely 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 My positives to a +NAO Nino period... -lower than normal heating bills -not being up til 3am tracking wintry weather -no need to spend time bundling in layers before going outside -periodic opening of windows for fresh air -no constant static electricity every time I touch something -dinners outside on the deck -fishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: My daffodils are coming along nicely Good afternoon Ralph. Roses on my block have yet to stop. Stay well, as always …. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 14, 2023 Author Share Posted December 14, 2023 25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: My daffodils are coming along nicely Kind of related, my dad put down a fall blend grass seed wayyyy later than he should have, like the week before thanksgiving and I was giving him shit about it saying there's no way in hell that you're getting anything to sprout. Stopped by yesterday and sure enough there were a few spots that actually sprouted under the hay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 Weather World 30 day outlook 25 of next 35 days above normal and dry Winter 01-02? hope not Not sure were they are getting dry though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 23 minutes ago, RedSky said: Weather World 30 day outlook 25 of next 35 days above normal and dry Winter 01-02? hope not Not sure were they are getting dry though Ens means and weeklies look active with the stj but sorta displaced south with the storm track following the southern route then off the coast. N stream to our N mostly aside for one brief stretch. Not sure I agree but that's what the LR stuff is showing attm. Here's a sample first week January. Beautiful +NAO, N stream along Canadian border, stj displaced S. PAC changes for the good after this but still gonna take a bit before we get cold air sources re-established let alone directed into the States. And I thought 'patience' was our buzz phrase LAST year. We will get there eventually this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 54 minutes ago, RedSky said: Weather World 30 day outlook 25 of next 35 days above normal and dry Winter 01-02? hope not Not sure were they are getting dry though We do La Nina’s well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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