RedSky Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, mattinpa said: If the models are right the next week or maybe two weeks should be the last of our chances. Would be a nice little event. There is always that mid March or early April fluke event I can't discount 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I need .70" for a 20" semi salvaged snow season that's my goal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z ECM added some juice 1.5 to 3" in our region most south with this one. Gets the 2" line to mby nice. 2-8am snowfall time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Nice relative agreement on all models....unusual! I'm running a 5k that day....so it will happen! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Kamu gets more snow for his pile everybody wins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 23 minutes ago, RedSky said: Come on come on..... Double or nothing baby come on!! Hmm with all this talk of water vapor on the other forum maybe we can go 3-6" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 21 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Nice relative agreement on all models....unusual! I'm running a 5k that day....so it will happen! Kamu and I will take the 3-5" sweet spot for $1,000 sold! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 We have been NAM'd! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: We have been NAM'd! If this scenario holds at the 00z and or 06z runs ,WWA should be issued for the LV and for Montgomery /Bucks County by Friday morning. The real take on this run of the NAM is that the ground will still be snow covered from Tuesday's snow which will aid tremendously in the accumulation of the snow on grassy surfaces. In other words the typical white rain scenario is thrown out the door as even the roads will cave immediately if not brine or salted. I expect a shit load of brine to be used on the roads around here on Friday afternoon. Furthermore at five inches, coming closer for a Winter storm watch to be issued for Montgomery and Bucks too. Elevation again is a factor as the South Mountain range appears to be in the bullseye on this NAM run. Definitely be a plowable event too if this comes to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Throwing the 19z NBM in for Friday night/Saturday morning. As an obs - I actually managed to stay above freezing all night and then finally dropped to 31 for a "low" at 9 am this morning. Was actually surprised at the temps as I expected to get higher today but nope. High ended up at 36 with a chilly breeze to boot. Lots of snow melt on roofs and streets/walks but parking lot mounds that were still around from the last storm, got a complete refresh. When I was out today I noticed there was a "haze" of very high clouds that the sun was blazing through. In any case, am currently 35 with an arctic-like dp of 13. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Some of the GEFS members say Friday night-Saturday could be significant. Ceiling is high-ish with this one but we need a lot to go right. Most likely scenario still seems to be a widespread 1-3”/2-4” event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 hours ago, LVblizzard said: We have been NAM'd! Stopped paying attention and NAM puts up a 5 spot? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 hours ago, Albedoman said: If this scenario holds at the 00z and or 06z runs ,WWA should be issued for the LV and for Montgomery /Bucks County by Friday morning. The real take on this run of the NAM is that the ground will still be snow covered from Tuesday's snow which will aid tremendously in the accumulation of the snow on grassy surfaces. In other words the typical white rain scenario is thrown out the door as even the roads will cave immediately if not brine or salted. I expect a shit load of brine to be used on the roads around here on Friday afternoon. Furthermore at five inches, coming closer for a Winter storm watch to be issued for Montgomery and Bucks too. Elevation again is a factor as the South Mountain range appears to be in the bullseye on this NAM run. Definitely be a plowable event too if this comes to fruition. I like what you are saying about snow on snow. That is NOT the case down here anyone east of the Blue Route 476 in Delaware County now have zero snowpack. It was an amazing ride this morning from Media driving ESE 7.4 miles to zero snow and also a temp in Media at 31f to a temp with no snow on the ground at 38f. The differences from Central, Western, and Northwestern Delaware County to the River were in one word DRAMATIC when it came to snowfall accumulations from yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Throwing the 19z NBM in for Friday night/Saturday morning. As an obs - I actually managed to stay above freezing all night and then finally dropped to 31 for a "low" at 9 am this morning. Was actually surprised at the temps as I expected to get higher today but nope. High ended up at 36 with a chilly breeze to boot. Lots of snow melt on roofs and streets/walks but parking lot mounds that were still around from the last storm, got a complete refresh. When I was out today I noticed there was a "haze" of very high clouds that the sun was blazing through. In any case, am currently 35 with an arctic-like dp of 13. My low for today just happened right now I am at 28.7f the lowest temperature from this morning between midnight and 6 am was 32.4f thanks to the clouds off of the Great Lakes higher humidity and dewpoints capping temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, LVblizzard said: Some of the GEFS members say Friday night-Saturday could be significant. Ceiling is high-ish with this one but we need a lot to go right. Most likely scenario still seems to be a widespread 1-3”/2-4” event. Now these types of systems can be very sneaky in February. We have the southern zones heating up more rapidly and then we have our cold grounds now with snowpack just to our north with us being colder relative to what's going on to our south. This could set up quite a temperature gradient for snowfall to band and set up an overrunning event with decent accent / lift. Don't sleep on the possibility of the system midnight Saturday to 12 pm Saturday to be an overperformer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, LVblizzard said: Some of the GEFS members say Friday night-Saturday could be significant. Ceiling is high-ish with this one but we need a lot to go right. Most likely scenario still seems to be a widespread 1-3”/2-4” event. If I was a forecaster....I would be telling my LHV folks this will be south of them and likely south of the M/D line for "best" relative snows....but what do I know?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 hours ago, Albedoman said: If this scenario holds at the 00z and or 06z runs ,WWA should be issued for the LV and for Montgomery /Bucks County by Friday morning. The real take on this run of the NAM is that the ground will still be snow covered from Tuesday's snow which will aid tremendously in the accumulation of the snow on grassy surfaces. In other words the typical white rain scenario is thrown out the door as even the roads will cave immediately if not brine or salted. I expect a shit load of brine to be used on the roads around here on Friday afternoon. Furthermore at five inches, coming closer for a Winter storm watch to be issued for Montgomery and Bucks too. Elevation again is a factor as the South Mountain range appears to be in the bullseye on this NAM run. Definitely be a plowable event too if this comes to fruition. I suspect highly unlikely for the LV and more likely well to the south of that areas to maybe see any WWA.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 0z guidance has weakened the early Saturday morning sweet dreams car topper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 One model looks good though the current champ UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 ECM slightly increased over 12z has 2.5-3" for this region Deadly combo ECM/UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The NBM is actually heavier then other guidance this one is a mystery to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 FV3 2-4" Almost everything after the NAM/GFS/CMC came in nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6z EC is running but here is the 6z 3k NAM that is now in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Did not expect it to be this cold this morning. 23 degrees. After the light event Saturday, looks like we're down 7 with one time out and they got the ball with less than 5 minutes to go... Or... we're down 3 going into the 9th. GFS still shows the apps runner on the 23rd. CMC has it at the M/D line then cuts north. Euro says what storm? Fantasy land has your typical "In like a lion" storm/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 LOL Looks like the 6z Euro NAM'd us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6z Canadian is similar to the NAM although it shows more across the northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 hours ago, RedSky said: ECM slightly increased over 12z has 2.5-3" for this region Deadly combo ECM/UKMET This is a thread title: RedSky’s Deadly Combo Storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 55 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Did not expect it to be this cold this morning. 23 degrees. After the light event Saturday, looks like we're down 7 with one time out and they got the ball with less than 5 minutes to go... Or... we're down 3 going into the 9th. GFS still shows the apps runner on the 23rd. CMC has it at the M/D line then cuts north. Euro says what storm? Fantasy land has your typical "In like a lion" storm/. Bottomed out in Media at 21.4f 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Crunchy stuff out there...early morning Pink Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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