LVblizzard Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I’m not a morning person at all but it looks like I’ll be setting an alarm for 5-6 am tomorrow to watch this all unfold. I’m in the jackpot zone on pretty much every model minus the Euro. Should be a fun one. Maybe with some thundersnow too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NAM seems reasonable think it may be accounting for the cold air crashing and also elevation. I am very interested to see what the GFS says, but honestly it is time for short range dynamic models. Anymore shifts to the SE and region wide north and west of the Delaware River gets pasted. What is tricky in this situation you cannot salt the roads in the rain and this is CLEARLY a rain to snow event. The rain snow line will be monitored like a hawk! The earlier the changeover the more snow you get I would think in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12z 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: NWS updated their powerpoint: https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf Unless I'm missing something the timestamp on each page is 2/11 6:25am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I haven't bothered to even look at the NE forum but I expect they are celebrating. As a quick obs - I bottomed out above freezing at 39 this morning and am currently at 42 with dp 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: NAM seems reasonable think it may be accounting for the cold air crashing and also elevation. I am very interested to see what the GFS says, but honestly it is time for short range dynamic models. Anymore shifts to the SE and region wide north and west of the Delaware River gets pasted. What is tricky in this situation you cannot salt the roads in the rain and this is CLEARLY a rain to snow event. The rain snow line will be monitored like a hawk! The earlier the changeover the more snow you get I would think in this case. Up in that northern tier of counties in the CWA, they can definitely brine and salt ahead of time as it has been progged (at least at the higher elevations and furthest north) to pretty much be all snow for the event. The next couple tiers down would be the mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12z 3K NAM with a slight decrease in totals across Chester, Montco and Bucks but an increase in the LV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Unless I'm missing something the timestamp on each page is 2/11 6:25am https://imgur.com/a/RJ1EtZW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Unless I'm missing something the timestamp on each page is 2/11 6:25am Since they may be using the same name for each iteration, you may have pulled up an older one. The current one has this - Quote Philadelphia/Mount Holly Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created 2/12/2024 7:57 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: https://imgur.com/a/RJ1EtZW Hmm... Can't copy/paste into and from imgur anymore. What are you all using to post images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I’m noticing that some of the hi-res/meso models now only have rain for a very short period of time towards I-78, with the majority of precip being snow. Some of them change the Lehigh Valley to snow as early as 2-3 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: NAM seems reasonable think it may be accounting for the cold air crashing and also elevation. I am very interested to see what the GFS says, but honestly it is time for short range dynamic models. Anymore shifts to the SE and region wide north and west of the Delaware River gets pasted. What is tricky in this situation you cannot salt the roads in the rain and this is CLEARLY a rain to snow event. The rain snow line will be monitored like a hawk! The earlier the changeover the more snow you get I would think in this case. Usually weenie caveats that I don't know what I'm talking about... Unless there's a major shift one way or the other, I don't know that the globals will shed anymore light. People much smarter than me discussing the effects the convention down south is having , so yeah, what you said...short range models from here. I'm in the Birds, Wiggum camp...1"-2" here, maybe some lollies of 3". But will gladly accept more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 15 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: Hmm... Can't copy/paste into and from imgur anymore. What are you all using to post images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: That's the way I used to do it, but I quickly maxed out the amount of data. I had been screenshotting, then pasting into imgur, then grabbing the link and pasting that in here, but that no longer seems to work. Slightly more on topic--my boss expects me to be at a meeting on site in southern NJ tomorrow. Uhh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 19 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: Hmm... Can't copy/paste into and from imgur anymore. What are you all using to post images? I hate that imgur changed how they did that. I don't use imgur here but do use it at another site and you can still click on your image to get the bigger view and then right click that image and (depending on how the browser drop down menu words it) "open image in new tab" (if you use tabs), and it will display the image full size and will use the image's URL with the graphic's extension (".gif" or ".png" or ".jpg", etc). Then copy and past that link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: That's the way I used to do it, but I quickly maxed out the amount of data. I had been screenshotting, then pasting into imgur, then grabbing the link and pasting that in here, but that no longer seems to work. Slightly more on topic--my boss expects me to be at a meeting on site in southern NJ tomorrow. Uhh... Go to the top right on this site hit your name then hit "my attachments" and start deleting old ones. I think each member has a 40mb limit tillk maxed out. Once you free up room, you'll be able to add attachments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 49 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I haven't bothered to even look at the NE forum but I expect they are celebrating. As a quick obs - I bottomed out above freezing at 39 this morning and am currently at 42 with dp 33. WSW warnings in parts of Maryland now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Trying postimages.org. NAM 12Z moved the event start. 6Z: 12Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 48 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: I’m noticing that some of the hi-res/meso models now only have rain for a very short period of time towards I-78, with the majority of precip being snow. Some of them change the Lehigh Valley to snow as early as 2-3 am. we might just hit that foot of snow mark good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Have a winter weather advisory for 2-4 inches. May go a bit higher based on new data. Hope the LV gets those high totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 24 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: WSW warnings in parts of Maryland now too. Just checking that out. Far western areas along the Appalachians. That positive tilt of moisture flow may become a fire hose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Watches were just issued for Lancaster County also....suspect we may see Mt. Holly extend the watches down into Chester County with later updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GFS increases totals across much of the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Just checking that out. Far western areas along the Appalachians. That positive tilt of moisture flow may become a fire hose. Also Carroll County, Frederick, and Northern Baltimore. Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford- 957 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations around 5 inches are possible. * WHERE...Frederick MD, Carroll, Northern Baltimore and Northwest Harford Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12z GFS seems to have that same idea of blowing up just off the coast although it looks a wee bit west from the 6z. I know the globals aren't really the best for the short range in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Everything is pretty keyed in on a fairly classic 6-10in storm for the Lehigh Valley and it is awesome 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 I'd be happy with a slushy inch, won't believe anything more until I see it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 13z NBM is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Euro is a weaker strung out advisory level event I was afraid of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Euro goes SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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