RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 32 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: ‼️ EPS agree with the OP only a bit north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Bernie Rayno woke up and is still sticking to his guns for SEPA with no changes in his forecast. Going to be fascinating what ends up happening with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6z 12k NAM is a crushing for all 3k moderate event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6z 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Would have to think at this point NWS is going to wait to see if things hold serve at 12z and then move to issuing Winter Storm Warnings in around the Lehigh Valley for what I will assume to be a general 4-8in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6z 12K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Oh! We did get upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for 7-10in here in Bethlehem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Latest Mt. Holly map - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Latest Mt. Holly map - I have a WWA for 2 to 4 inches in Ardmore, PA. Literally just outside of Philly, in Montgomery County…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6z GFS kuchera is 8" region wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Insane shift on GFS and euro. Has to bump a touch N at 12z right?!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Insane shift on GFS and euro. Has to bump a touch N at 12z right?!.I would think euro will bump north some. But N&w burbs should do well with 3-6/4-8 & LV 6-12 & poconos 9-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I would think euro will bump north some. But N&w burbs should do well with 3-6/4-8 & LV 6-12 & poconos 9-16.Agreed, I’m in Bensalem, maybe I can hang onto the ccb heavy precip later into the morning. Hoping for 1-3” of slush here we’ll see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Was trying to see what the GFS was trying to do and I guess it wants to start bombing out the low when it gets out into the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7z NBM not buying it. I almost want to say it could be convective feedback but I suppose the 12z will be instructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 hours ago, Albedoman said: I admire you sticking to your call but the thing that bothers me in this run is there is one hell of a discrepancy of 6 inches vs 17 inches. Thats nearly an inch or so more of available precipitable water for snow making. LIke I said another 8 hour run or so should iron some of it out. But even if I took half of that extra precip out this run, it would still meet winter storm warning easily. 8-12+ in seems more in line if this trend continues Yep, Mt Holly went with my old fart thoughts. We actually got our warning in the LV before the snow event Time to celebrate- the warning drought is over LOL I also feel much better after reading their forecast discussion about the explosive snow growth too as the temps fall to near or below 30 degrees adds to the accumulations. Folks, with this much dynamics in play now, can we get some thundersnow too? That would be the icing on the cake. Will Jim Cantore show up somewhere in the LV? Analogy storm Feb 1983 snow storm fits well at this time as I remember the LV received 3-5 in an hour snow rates with 24" of snow. My parents were stuck in that storm and was their first taste of a blizzard in the LV. I was in my 20's at the time and did not mind. Seems plausible at this juncture that this storm will somewhat similar with its formation with the LP sitting near the sweet spot at the Chesapeake after the transfer and getting stronger. Snow accumulation amounts should be much less for this storm but the snow rates will be up there for sure for a few hours. Visibility will be down for sure with the monster flakes. Been long time since we have seen this type of snow storm event unfold in the LV. 1996 and 2016 LV blizzards were different as the they were both much longer in duration, the temps were much colder and the size of the flakes were smaller. This storm event may unfold like 1983 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_1983_North_American_blizzard#:~:text=Twenty-four-hour snowfall records,snow fell in one hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I would think some slight bumps back North could be expected, but I’m very optimistic about a 4-7in snowfall in the Lehigh Valley. Would be the biggest snowfall in quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Duca892 said: I would think some slight bumps back North could be expected, but I’m very optimistic about a 4-7in snowfall in the Lehigh Valley. Would be the biggest snowfall in quite a bit Up your way has definitely been in the target zone for days now. It's a matter of how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6z hi-res EC has moved south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6z EC seems to be matching the 6z GFS, ticking the low a bit to the east off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Like @Birds~69 stated these setups generally disappoint se pa cold chasing precip. 9 out of 10 times. But who knows, maybe this is the 1 out of 10 where we get the surprise. I wouldn't bet on it tho. Thinking a coating to slushy inch or 2 in extreme se PA. AN inch to 3 up my way. North and W of Central Bucks 3-5" then a swath of 4-8" LV. Rough guesstimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The trend this year has been slow shifts south, this afternoon model runs will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12z NAM is running so will see how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Like @Birds~69 stated these setups generally disappoint se pa cold chasing precip. 9 out of 10 times. But who knows, maybe this is the 1 out of 10 where we get the surprise. I wouldn't bet on it tho. Thinking a coating to slushy inch or 2 in extreme se PA. AN inch to 3 up my way. North and W of Central Bucks 3-5" then a swath of 4-8" LV. Rough guesstimate.T Yep, that's my thoughts. Pretty much after midnight tonight I'll start looking way N and see where the cold air lies. Then I'll follow Allentown/Lehigh Valley obs and so on as the cold moves S while following the moisture. It usually gives me an idea if we're going to get screwed or not. Is the cold air moving faster than predicted? Or slower? 36F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 19 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 12z NAM is running so will see how that goes. A pasting n and w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Both NAMs park the death band over the Lehigh Valley tomorrow morning. 2-3”/hr rates at the height of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: A pasting n and w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: A pasting n and w It (at least the 12k) still brings more further south. But the LV / I-78 and north has always been persistent with all of the models. ETA - RedSky would like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NWS updated their powerpoint: https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: NWS updated their powerpoint: https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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