Kevin Reilly Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM 12k snow depth has a slushy inch or so up here. Meh. NAM big step back compared to 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The trend is our friend right now. I want to see the rest of the 0z suite continue it to feel any kind of good yet. If we only had a decent airmass this would be a hige hit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Duca892 said: I’ll say this I’m not trying to get tooo excited but I’m starting to see Mets acknowledge the seeming SE trend on Twitter I'm excited and drunk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: NAM big step back compared to 18z run. Yep, more in line with other guidance. HRRR is great most of the time with its 18hr runs....the extended runs nasomuch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, Duca892 said: I’ll say this I’m not trying to get tooo excited but I’m starting to see Mets acknowledge the seeming SE trend on Twitter Bobby from EPAWA saw the 0z guidance and essentially tossed his map from earlier this evening. No one really expected this shift, hobbyists and mets alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, MattMal88 said: The trend is our friend right now. I want to see the rest of the 0z suite continue it to feel any kind of good yet. If we only had a decent airmass this would be a hige hit. It's a shame....I've been suggesting this would be a tantalizingly close call for extreme SE PA for some time now due mostly to the antecedent airmass that isn't that good. Far N and W crew enjoy this one. Maybe we get another shot down this way later in the week. Some of the extended stuff is starting to look more tame and seasonal now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: NAM big step back compared to 18z run. 3k was a slight improvement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Guys and gals the Reggie is going south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The NAM showed total positive snow depth accumulations meeting or exceeding warning criteria for the LV first the time in several years in tonight's run This is a promising trend that the winter storm watch may be upgraded to an actual warning before the snow event even actually occurs and not during the event . That has not happened in 2-3 years. To me, that is what I have been waiting for this entire year. Once that warning is issued- it can snow a foot or more- I really do not care about being too specific on totals. I think many of us are waiting for the magical warning to be issued too. We have all waited way too long. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The ICON(lol) is south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The NAM showed total positive snow depth accumulations meeting or exceeding warning criteria for the LV first the time in several years in tonight's run This is a promising trend that the winter storm watch may be upgraded to an actual warning before the snow event even actually occurs and not during the event . That has not happened in 2-3 years. To me, that is what I have been waiting for this entire year. Once that warning is issued- it can snow a foot or more- I really do not care about being too specific on totals. I think many of us are waiting for the magical warning to be issued too. We have all waited way too long.It’ll be coming. 6-10”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NAM big step back compared to 18z run. Depends on location. Big increase for Lehigh Valley. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: It’ll be coming. 6-10” . You’re increasing totals? I think I’ll go up to 4-8” if/when I do…low ratios and BL issues scare me. Only way we get to 10” is if we have an earlier changeover and get under that death band for 3+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Gfs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Hoping like hell I wake up to this trend having stuck and a Winter Storm Warning for Bethlehem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 You’re increasing totals? I think I’ll go up to 4-8” if/when I do…low ratios and BL issues scare me. Only way we get to 10” is if we have an earlier changeover and get under that death band for 3+ hours.Yeah I’ll reassess in the morning but likely 4-8/5-9/6-10. See how euro looks and 6z mesos and go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Hoping like hell I wake up to this trend having stuck and a Winter Storm Warning for Bethlehem I’m pretty certain that’s why they held onto the watch, but upgraded the Poconos. So you can bet your bottom dollar there will be a winter storm warning when you wake up tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 You’re increasing totals? I think I’ll go up to 4-8” if/when I do…low ratios and BL issues scare me. Only way we get to 10” is if we have an earlier changeover and get under that death band for 3+ hours.That band is capable of 2-3” per hour, and it’s not a small Norlun trough type feature. She’s wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Goofuss skips north of course but it's just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Guys and gals the Reggie is going south It narrowed the snow swath if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It narrowed the snow swath if anything. Your RAP looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This has the feel of one of those February wet snow bombs of old coming in as a surprise. Of course it's still over a day away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Cecily (Accu Weather) not buying it yet but did mention the S trend... 41F/cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 24 minutes ago, RedSky said: This has the feel of one of those February wet snow bombs of old coming in as a surprise. Of course it's still over a day away. More times than not these setups don't pan out. Either the cold takes too long to filter down or the precep scoots out of here quicker than expected or both. I do remember a couple plaster jobs, better than expected but they are far and few between... 40F/Cloudy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Latest NBM slightly increases totals 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 That's the most snow the blend model has given me this winter, double the January storm forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Ukie sweet spot is Bucks, Montco and West Chester 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Euro is 50 miles south! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6-12" SEPA highest amounts in southeast Bucks lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 ‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now