Birds~69 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Doesn't mean accumulating snow but probably will see some flakes fly by midweek. After around the 10th of Feb the wiggum rule % of verification begins to drop. We r right on the cusp. You should write the official Wiggum rule criteria and insert in the weenie handbook. Seems like there may be some confusion... 53F/Super bright sun. Reminds me when I had to drive Rt422 twice a day and was drilled by the sun twice a day to and from work (E,W).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Hey... i would gladly take another 3-5in snowfall for what the GFS keeps selling in the Lehigh Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Lock the GFS in its perfect 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 GFS just missed on timing with Presidents Day oh boy liking the pattern change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I’ll like it more when I’m shoveling. Rain, 39F at International Falls. Heck of a way to run a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: GFS just missed on timing with Presidents Day oh boy liking the pattern change. Looking ahead, everything always looks great then as time approaches shit hits the fan...year after year. 48F 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 20 minutes ago, RedSky said: Lock the GFS in its perfect It looks like it has the cold air coming in after the storm is off the coast though (unless it thinks some cold air will come with a little clipper-like low that precedes the coastal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: It looks like it has the cold air coming in after the storm is off the coast though (unless it thinks some cold air will come with a little clipper-like low that precedes the coastal). It may just be a quick turnover passing burbs thing? Who knows? Doesn't happen much these days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 About half of the 18z eps members now give the area at least a SECS event Tuesday. A little more than half of those are MECS. I would say the Euro is moving towards the GFS. The GFS is trying really hard to score the rare win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: It looks like it has the cold air coming in after the storm is off the coast though (unless it thinks some cold air will come with a little clipper-like low that precedes the coastal). In February it likes to snow if the track is right even with subpar temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: About half of the 18z eps members now give the area at least a SECS event Tuesday. A little more than half of those are MECS. I would say the Euro is moving towards the GFS. The GFS is trying really hard to score the rare win. Would like to see more consistency w/tonight's late night 00z runs. I'll take a 1-3" to 3-6" rain to snow plaster in a heartbeat....then cold. 42F/Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Would like to see more consistency w/tonight's late night 00z runs. I'll take a 1-3" to 3-6" rain to snow plaster in a heartbeat....then cold. 42F/Cloudy You will not get it from the ICON Model Lol. However it is consistently bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 All those times in early mid January we say if only it was a month later..well it's happening this is that one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 What a nuke on the gfs. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 We suck at snow constantly. Up next Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The Ukmet loves us could be a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, RedSky said: The Ukmet loves us could be a good sign We need something....and quite frankly we're not asking for much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Euro looks just south enough for good things 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The OP matches the previous ensemble mean only a small further move south would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Euro looks just south enough for good things Welp, it's something I guess? Though, could get shafted in a heartbeat... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The snow falls midnight to 8am Valentine's morning, la la lock it up lol *Right about the timing but off on the day whatever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, RedSky said: The snow falls midnight to 8am Valentine's morning, la la lock it up lol Take a Multi-Vitamin, B-complex and kick yourself in the nuts from time to time and I think you'll be alright to keep alert. I've had fox running around, squirrels making silly sounds so something may be up? Cops released a fox in Lansdale, a stones-throw away a couple days ago....creatures/critters know. Caught on cam: ‘Fox Whisperer,' fellow police officer free animal entangled in netting https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/critter-corner/lansdale-police-fox-rescue/3769425/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Any idea if the 6z GFS held? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, Duca892 said: Any idea if the 6z GFS held? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Thank You much. Will be interested to see if this takes the jog North like our trends like to usually do today. I mean it really won’t take a lot to going from a nice 5-8in snowfall in the LV to nothing. Hoping this hold serve. Thanks again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Duca892 said: Thank You much. Will be interested to see if this takes the jog North like our trends like to usually do today. I mean it really won’t take a lot to going from a nice 5-8in snowfall in the LV to nothing. Hoping this hold serve. Thanks again. Lot of confluence to the north. Can only go so far north. Hits brick wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Franklin0529 said: Lot of confluence to the north. Can only go so far north. Hits brick wall The problem is the antecedent airmass. Isn't that cold tbh. That's why the later threat(s) after PD hold the best potential still imo. The 13th is going to be a tantalizingly close tease outside of higher elevations imho. I could be wrong, the 0z GFS might be right. 6z barely backed off the threading of the needle for Philly proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 A couple more very warm days for February on tap today and tomorrow before we begin to cool a bit on Sunday and much chill back to average cold for next week. We could be close but will likely fall just shy of records for high temps both today and tomorrow. Record today is 61 back in 1990 and 62 tomorrow set back in 1960. A slight chance of showers tomorrow but a better shot of rain arriving on Monday with a possible turn to snow into Tuesday morning. Records for today: High 61 (1990) / Low 14 below zero (1934) / Precipitation 1.86" (1906) / Snow 6.0" (1936) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 hours ago, RedSky said: The snow falls midnight to 8am Valentine's morning, la la lock it up lol *Right about the timing but off on the day whatever GFS and Euro timing is off by a lot both are ejecting the energy in the Southwest with different timing. My guestimate say we know later at 12z today and 0z tonight what this will look like in regards to how much of this is rain and how much of this is snow etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The problem is the antecedent airmass. Isn't that cold tbh. That's why the later threat(s) after PD hold the best potential still imo. The 13th is going to be a tantalizingly close tease outside of higher elevations imho. I could be wrong, the 0z GFS might be right. 6z barely backed off the threading of the needle for Philly proper. Yea temps are meh..... the only way we get snow from this in extreme southeast pa is if this storm drops from its 991 mb to 983 mb like it is showing I have my doubts. I mean 7 am in Media rain and 35f then falls to 33f with snow wet snow with warm ground temps between 10 am and 1 pm Tuesday for accumulations just doesn't work. We Track Though! 12z to 0z today will be telling. After the 15th and beyond is where it always has been at but we will not know about those details until at least Tuesday when this storm gets out of here and the next clipper approaches from the Great Lakes and how the STJ either interacts with the NS or not. It is not out of the question it even gets meh out in time with more of a zonal flatter flow with blocking up top it would be just our luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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