RedSky Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 It would be a quick heavy wet snow and a ton of fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 14 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Anyone got a snowfall map for the 0z GFS? CMC? LOL This is most accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: This is most accurate. Alright Chuck dont shat some reality down on our digital snow fantasy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, RedSky said: Alright Chuck dont shat some reality down on our digital snow fantasy. Heavy snow would lead to good ratios but 10-1 might be on the high side. Interested again though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Crazy Uncle Ukie half agrees, displaced 50 miles north, 1-3" south 3-6" north * yeah snow depth map would suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 ECM sucks of course, like this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 hours ago, RedSky said: ECM sucks of course, like this winter Your top priority today should be grab a 6-pack, go to the den, hang out w/the coyotes and ask them what the hell is going on. 40 days till Spring and DST starts March 10th....this winter is flying by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 That 6Z run... Hoo boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snobal Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 anyone have snowmaps for 6Z run ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 21 minutes ago, snobal said: anyone have snowmaps for 6Z run ? Again a ways out so take it FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 22 minutes ago, snobal said: anyone have snowmaps for 6Z run ? here is he clown map I will say this, these large amounts being shown after a few days of runs should not be ingored. While we may never get these amounts, its a dam good sign that we will get at least half this amount as shown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Again a ways out so take it FWIW this is snow map for positive snow growth is doable if it holds for a couple of days however a few runs are not enough to convince me of this being believable. We have burned way too many fricking times. When the NAM/Euro shows this three days out , then I am all in 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, Albedoman said: this is snow map for positive snow growth is doable if it holds for a couple of days however a few runs are not enough to convince me of this being believable. We have burned way too many fricking times. When the NAM/Euro shows this three days out , then I am all in Your right. I grabbed the wrong one. Apologies. I'm with you. These fantasy maps are killing everyone, and then one bad run like last night's 18Z and everyone is jumping off only to hit the trampoline at the bottom and bounce back for this mornings runs. The good about it is that there is something to track. You may or may not like the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Only thing I'd like to add to this discussion...it is nice to see these threats popping up on guidance right as the upper pattern changes. Might prove my prior thinking wrong ie we have to wait to cash in. Alot of this is going to come down to dynamics/phasing time/location... especially early on. The Feb 13 threat is dependent on rates it appears. Not really a simple task, but achievable. Clipper track around the 16th is going to be dependent on 50/50 and confluence location and the building NAO ridge as it retrogrades from Scandinavia. And lastly, the PD threat around the 18th give or take is going to rely on NS phasing with the stj at the right time and location which is a function of how the NAO is oriented at the time and how strong. Again, glad to see these pop up ahead of schedule and before the period I had originally circled on my calendar. This has the potential to be one of the best winter periods we've had in a while....but keep things in check because a fair amount still has to go right over the next 10 days. Pattern after this still looks ripe and active as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 20 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Your right. I grabbed the wrong one. Apologies. I'm with you. These fantasy maps are killing everyone, and then one bad run like last night's 18Z and everyone is jumping off only to hit the trampoline at the bottom and bounce back for this mornings runs. The good about it is that there is something to track. You may or may not like the outcome. This site should have a algorithm where any map greater than 7 days out won't upload. I mean these maps are just ridiculous so far out... 30F 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 As others have said a long way to go...plus with all of the moving pieces like the upper level lows still being off in the pacific....as Bernie Rayno says - windshield wiper effect for the next few days. Expect the GFS to go way north at 12z and then the Euro to come south....neither of course will be validation. All in all an active pattern but not one that is sure to deliver snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 A few more beautiful mild February days on the way before the pattern changes to a more typical winter pattern next week. There is a chance some valley spots in the county could see near 60 degrees on Saturday. Rain looks to arrive on Monday night and if some models are to be believed could mix with or change to some wet snow toward Tuesday morning. Some models have multiple potential winter events over the next couple weeks so stay tuned. Records for today: High 64 (1965) / Low 4 below (1895) / Precip 1.00" (1895) / Snow 10.0" (1895) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 5 hours ago, Birds~69 said: This site should have a algorithm where any map greater than 7 days out won't upload. I mean these maps are just ridiculous so far out... 30F You mean those maps are not a lock?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 hours ago, ChescoWx said: As others have said a long way to go...plus with all of the moving pieces like the upper level lows still being off in the pacific....as Bernie Rayno says - windshield wiper effect for the next few days. Expect the GFS to go way north at 12z and then the Euro to come south....neither of course will be validation. All in all an active pattern but not one that is sure to deliver snow. Looks like the 12z GFS did not go way north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 19 minutes ago, MGorse said: Looks like the 12z GFS did not go way north. It is on an island by itself unfortunately. Ukie, Euro, CMC, ICON vs. GFS and GEFS AT least we can say there is still a chance! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 14 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: It is on an island by itself unfortunately. Ukie, Euro, CMC, ICON vs. GFS and GEFS AT least we can say there is still a chance! Everything is trending south since last night. Maine was getting 18" now flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 10 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: It is on an island by itself unfortunately. Ukie, Euro, CMC, ICON vs. GFS and GEFS AT least we can say there is still a chance! I just took a peak at the 12z Euro and 12z GFS for the 2/13 storm and they are like polar opposites (Euro north and GFS a DC metro bonanza). But thing is - the snow from them seem to happen for VD and stays around for the following week or so, and you can't really tell what any additional contribution would have been after VD with a 2nd storm around 2/18 - 2/21. And at least for the GFS range, the storm from the 18th - 21st is a slider, going south of Philly metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 Well we have the wiggum rule going for us with temps soaring above 60 on Saturday... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 57 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: It is on an island by itself unfortunately. Ukie, Euro, CMC, ICON vs. GFS and GEFS AT least we can say there is still a chance! History has shown the GFS cave to the Euro which I believe it will sometime tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 Pretty interesting trend on the EPS from 12z yesterday to today(stolen from the mid atlantic forum). If I lived in the LV/Pocono's, i'd be getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Chilly water temp 42 degrees down the shore keeping the beaches in Sea Isle City at 44 degrees....while inland in Chesco we are at 51 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, MGorse said: Looks like the 12z GFS did not go way north. Hence why I leave forecasting to professionals like you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Well we have the wiggum rule going for us with temps soaring above 60 on Saturday... Philly may hit 60F+ Sat but the burbs may not. Probably get screwed w/a high of 59F. Sitting on the porch, feels like a Fall day out here as the sun is starting to set... 53F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Well we have the wiggum rule going for us with temps soaring above 60 on Saturday... Doesn't mean accumulating snow but probably will see some flakes fly by midweek. After around the 10th of Feb the wiggum rule % of verification begins to drop. We r right on the cusp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Pretty interesting trend on the EPS from 12z yesterday to today(stolen from the mid atlantic forum). If I lived in the LV/Pocono's, i'd be getting excited. Not getting excited yet, it’s still 5 days away and a lot can change. This could easily come back north. Plus even on the colder models (minus the GFS) we still rain quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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