Birds~69 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 20 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 0z models have begun to come in and the HRRR is painting a very snowy picture for the Philly burbs into the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. Not that I rely on local weather outlets but watching NBC10 earlier @ 6pm...not even a mention of a possible changeover, nothing. It may/may not happen but literally zilch from them, nothing. A tad surprised... 45F Ohio radar, nice line building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 0z models have begun to come in and the HRRR is painting a very snowy picture for the Philly burbs into the Lehigh Valley and Poconos.0z NAM even more bullish as well..Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 6 hours ago, RedSky said: 10" imby, there is little chance this fails I'm already holding the shovel and looking skyward my quote for this morning still holds. This old geezer here is telling you all that this storm is dynamically an open door policy for snow for extreme snow growth generation- I have seen this situation unfold a dozen times in my 45 years of forecasting as a hobby. Half dollar flakes and bigger- pancake flakes? as the snow growth should be incredible for some areas as well as for the higher elevations. The key is whether the cold can be sucked down quick enough for the precip to change to allow for accumulation and if the LP coastal forms more east in the Chesapeake Bay. Thunder snow maybe? But it could fall apart if the LP forms further west. I would love to see 2-4 inch rates of snow per hour but I really think a good thumping of snow for a few hours at 2-3 " or more per hour is all that can get squeezed out before the LP races off to the NE. I Any snow will be pretty as the limbs will have a nice paste job with the gusty winds in place. The changeover will be quick too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, Albedoman said: my quote for this morning still holds. This old geezer here is telling you all that this storm is dynamically an open door policy for snow for extreme snow growth generation- I have seen this situation unfold a dozen times in my 45 years of forecasting as a hobby. Half dollar flakes and bigger- pancake flakes? as the snow growth should be incredible for some areas as well as for the higher elevations. The key is whether the cold can be sucked down quick enough for the precip to change to allow for accumulation and if the LP coastal forms more east in the Chesapeake Bay. Thunder snow maybe? But it could fall apart if the LP forms further west. I would love to see 2-4 inch rates of snow per hour but I really think a good thumping of snow for a few hours at 2-3 " or more per hour is all that can get squeezed out before the LP races off to the NE. I Any snow will be pretty as the limbs will have a nice paste job with the gusty winds in place. The changeover will be quick too. We seem to get screwed on these timing things. Precip scoots away or the cold takes its good old time arriving. We'll see. 6abc going with 1-2" Poconos, C-1" burbs. My nightmare, Birds lose and shafted on snow... 44F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Not that I rely on local weather outlets but watching NBC10 earlier @ 6pm...not even a mention of a possible changeover, nothing. It may/may not happen but literally zilch from them, nothing. A tad surprised... 45F Ohio radar, nice line building. Ch 10 guy at 11 said snow is not a concern for us. Maybe he meant accumulation wise. He did say the other day he does love snow, so there’s that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 0z NAM is 1-4" East to West I liked 10" snow better but can settle for 4" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, RedSky said: 0z NAM is 1-4" East to West I liked 10" snow better but can settle for 4" We haven't seen snow in so long, 4" would seem like a blizzard w/expected winds... 43F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 20 minutes ago, RedSky said: 0z NAM is 1-4" East to West I liked 10" snow better but can settle for 4" Gonna stay up for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Gonna stay up for it? Good point looks like the snow timing is 5-11am lmao Maybe the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, RedSky said: Good point looks like the snow timing is 5-11am lmao Maybe the next one May be earlier...watching 6abc just now and their "futurecast" have the changeover in Reading at 3am. This is all a crapshot w/these cold fronts coming through and meeting up w/the precip....if at all. Maybe take 3 naps instead of 2 throughout the day so you're prepared for a overnight shift... 43F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: May be earlier...watching 6abc just now and their "futurecast" have the changeover in Reading at 3am. This is all a crapshot w/these cold front coming through and meeting up w/the precip....if at all. Maybe take 3 naps instead of 2 throughout the day so you're prepared for a overnight shift... 43F Too old to change I like to sleep the same hours it always snows, you saw Cold Misers face he hates me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Or was it Jack Frost meh same dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Too old to change I like to sleep the same hours it always snows, you saw Cold Misers face he hates me. I'll probably pull a long shift. Birds Sunday night football then post game then radar watching into the wee hours.....worst hobby ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I'll probably pull a long shift. Birds Sunday night football then post game then radar watching into the wee hours.....worst hobby ever. If they lose you be snoring so many variables at play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: If they lose you be snoring so many variables at play If they lose I'll weigh my pros/cons in staying up for a possible non event. If they win, I'm up w/94WIP on and my face planted against the window waiting for the first potential flake... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 ECM is a coating to .5" far N&W sections between 5-8am so chuck that garbage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Rain looks to be here at/before noon. Any snow potential seems far N/W/Poconos... 54F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Temps have been rising overnight so my "low" was 47 at midnight (assuming the cold front doesn't come through until early tomorrow morning). It's currently 57 with dp 55. Looks like the 6z 3k NAM un-NAM'd itself and threw most of the precip to the N/W with a little to the E/S. ETA 6z GFS throws a little more to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Temps have been rising overnight so my "low" was 47 at midnight (assuming the cold front doesn't come through until early tomorrow morning. It's currently 57 with d 55. Looks like the 6z 3k NAM un-NAM'd itself and threw most of the precip to the N/W with a little to the E/S. ETA 6z GFS throws a little more to the east. Really wish that GFS would verify but I don’t trust it at all in setups like this. I’ll be watching the NAMs and HRRR much more closely today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Rain should be spreading in from the west by late this morning. The models still show a transition to snow from west to east across the area before dawn tomorrow. Both the NAM and the NWS are focused on the higher elevations here in Western Chester, Western Montgomery and Berks Counties for the best chance of an accumulation. Both the NAM and GFS are model in the 3" to 4" amounts for these areas. However, the NWS has only up to 1" possible in these areas. The limiting factor will be temperatures which should remain above freezing in all areas so while I am sure there will be some accumulation where it does snow on unpaved surfaces...unless the rates are heavy enough any issues on the road look slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Temps have been rising overnight so my "low" was 47 at midnight (assuming the cold front doesn't come through until early tomorrow morning. It's currently 57 with d 55. Looks like the 6z 3k NAM un-NAM'd itself and threw most of the precip to the N/W with a little to the E/S. ETA 6z GFS throws a little more to the east. Nothing is really working in our favor w/any snow and it wouldn't even stick besides grass/trees and maybe car tops. Looking more forward to downpours/wind and maybe a rumble of thunder... Up to 58F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 After seeing this morning NAM runs- my original forecast 1-3 in of snow for the LV northern Bucks Montgomery areas yesterday morning seems the best outcome. I have got learn to stick to my original guns. The ground will be simply too wet an and warm to support higher amounts as it really needs to snow hard to even accumulate. The ridges around the LV will see some accumulation especially Bear Creek ski resort area in Macungie. It really does not matter anyway as this stuff as most of it will be gone by the evening when the sun pops out. 2-3 inches of rain will really get the feet wet for vegetation before a good cold snap hits later in december. I think the 40 mph wind gusts with the heavy rain will feel awful this evening too. Personally rather see a good line of convectivness with a squall line thunderstorm. It seems that we have not had a thunderstorm in 4 months. 1-3 inch snow may seem a lot now to ask for but asking for a good t storm seems to be more of a challenge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Sun breaking out...may hit 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Rain looks to be here at/before noon. Any snow potential seems far N/W/Poconos... 54F Canadian Model wins lol and it just hit 60 but we lost the sun now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 12z 3k NAM just rolled out and throws a bit more to the east. ETA, I'm now at 60 with dp 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 38 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Sun breaking out...may hit 60F. 60F...dark clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 12z GFS drier than the NAM in the southeast. ETA - the latest NBM is going with the drier (more rainy/less snowy) solution for the southeast. Currently wet (non-measurable so far) and 59 with dp 58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 56 with moderate rain, wind is fairly calm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Finally got a bucket tip to 0.01" as the rain shield moves closer. Still 59 with dp now 59 and overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Physicsteve Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Adopted a rescue yesterday who’s not house broken so this afternoon and evening should be fun going outside every hour or so. Hoping for enough remaining precip and dynamics to wake up to some snow falling during the morning attempt(s). Think some slush otg is all I can expect here but rooting for the W/NW crew to cash in on some measurable depth. Go Birds! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now