Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion


The Iceman
 Share

Recommended Posts

Only fell to 38.9 here in EN. Lower spots were as cold as 31. After 3 straight days of rain and fog totaling 0.76" we have a dry day today (not much sun though) with high temps running almost 10 degrees above normal for the date in the upper 40's. Temps will only fall to the upper 30's tonight as rain arrives overnight. Tomorrow will be raw and wet day with temperatures going nowhere during the day remaining in the 30's to near 40. Snow may begin to mix in with the rain especially in the higher spots in the area overnight Sunday into Monday AM. We should remain near to slightly above normal temps for the rest of the work week.
Records for today: High 71 (1916) / Low 2 below zero (1987) / Rain 1.46" (1990) / Snow 6.5" (1941)

image.png.7ebf3143c869d04a824e0a33bba53571.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ended up with a low of 41 this morning and a high of 49.  And yes, that odd yellow orb in the sky did make an appearance thanks to breaks in the clouds.  Had some leftover misty stuff deposit 0.01" in the bucket early this morning, and with 0.26" the previous 2 days, I ended up with 0.53" for a 3-day total.

Currently partly cloudy and 46 with dp 41.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Feb 5 looking interesting on the ensembles. Large S Central Canada ridge with a wave undercutting it. Big ull spinning over coastal Maine. Cold air available. Ops are meh. Then the ens and weeklies go bonkers after the 10th thru mid March. Buckle up.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33.png

But for the time being, are we free to move about the cabin?

The last little patch of snow at the base of the driveway vanished today. It’s like last week never happened. I’m with Ji… enough h5 plots, let’s start tracking!! 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The hype for February is so thick you can cut it with a steak knife and serve it with a loaded baked potato

 

Anything short of 60” and February is an epic fail!! :P :weenie:

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The hype for February is so thick you can cut it with a steak knife and serve it with a loaded baked potato

 

I dare not post it in some of the other subs, but in recent years we have seen our share of epic patterns that just haven't produced though they clearly should have. It will be interesting to see if we go thru another stretch where things slip thru the cracks and get away from us in what used to be a pattern that historically 20 years ago would easily produce. If we can't score a warning criteria storm during this stretch, then the elephant in the room is going to get some very dirty looks from me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As I sort of expected but refrained from posting til now for fear of being run off the board and ruining the good vibes...the weeklies and monthly data may have been teasing us with the super epic textbook can't possibly fail looks. This data generally is heavily weighted using past analogs/climatology averages, so it's not surprising to see those forecasts focused heavily on an Aleutian low on roids and blocking at HL. That puts all the blues and reds in the right spots. But as things move closer in time and the ensembles get in range that are weighted more with current data, the smoothed looks decay and more accurate forecasting results.

Anyway, not liking the trof burying itself in the SW and the SER pumping. Saw this already in Dec and it kicked the can til 2nd week Jan. If we kick the can now same way, we are into March. Let's hope the models are belching and come back where they were 48 hrs ago.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

As I sort of expected but refrained from posting til now for fear of being run off the board and ruining the good vibes...the weeklies and monthly data may have been teasing us with the super epic textbook can't possibly fail looks. This data generally is heavily weighted using past analogs/climatology averages, so it's not surprising to see those forecasts focused heavily on an Aleutian low on roids and blocking at HL. That puts all the blues and reds in the right spots. But as things move closer in time and the ensembles get in range that are weighted more with current data, the smoothed looks decay and more accurate forecasting results.

Anyway, not liking the trof burying itself in the SW and the SER pumping. Saw this already in Dec and it kicked the can til 2nd week Jan. If we kick the can now same way, we are into March. Let's hope the models are belching and come back where they were 48 hrs ago.

Take a break man. No one is going to run you off the board.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With our 0.93" of rain so far today we are up to 7.36" of rain for the month. The good news is after today we should be dry for the rest of the upcoming week. The drizzle and light rain could mix with a few wet snow flakes tonight before ending. Our temperatures should trend colder this week with average temps not too far from normal for the last week of January.
Records for today: High 67 (1914) / Low 10 below zero (1925) / Precipitation 1.80" (1922) / Snow 18.0" (1922) - this was the first day of 2 day snowstorm that would deliver 26" of snow - this was the 6th largest snowstorm in county history.
image.png.ea939905369743000f284cb6db8d1c2a.png
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bottomed out at 39 this morning and haven't moved much today, with a high so far of 42.

The initial round of the heavy rain that began sometime after 1 am, netted me 0.93" before a pause.  A lighter round ensued mid-morning with an additional 0.07" (so far) for a total of 1.00" on the nose at post time.

Currently a misty 40 with dp 40.

ETA to note that I have recorded 7.41" of liquid for the month (so far) although some of that is missing rain data during the transitions from snow/sleet to rain for the 1/15 - 1/16/24 storm that didn't make it through a snow/ice-clogged gauge and also includes delayed snow melt from the gauge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Cloudy light rain drizzle fog 41f humidity 99% dewpoint 41f pressure 29.70 steady wind NE 14 mph

Total rainfall 0.97"

 

High so far today was 43 probably after midnight last night temps have held steady all day 39-41f.

Welcome back to December 2023 for now!

“What happens in December the winter will remember.”

Funny how that saying doesn’t get tossed around when December is a ratter. 

  • Haha 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...