geeter1 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Mt Holly just bumped the Lehigh Valley to 3 to 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shenanagins1091 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I wonder where NWS gets the 6" comes from, even with kuchera ratio still haven't really seen more than 3-4.7" on any models. We shall see maybe they are onto something. 2-5" feels like such a solid call for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djdude2122 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Hey all ! New here! Lehigh Valley native! Here is the Href map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The "Sue Serio Storm" cometh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just got upgraded to a WSW for 5-6”. I don’t really see it but I hope it verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 Just now, Blue Dream said: Just got upgraded to a WSW for 5-6”. I don’t really see it but I hope it verifies! That's where I'm at... I don't expect it to verify but I understand putting out the WSW as it could potentially verify. Better to be safe than sorry in these situations imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 for those who do not know: 1. Winter storm warnings were issued for those areas where the 5 in snowfall criteria for issuing the warning has been met in the models. Unfortunately Montgomery/Bucks county were split down the middle with the existing WSW snowfall criteria levels for winter storm warnings. This is one scenario where me and the NOAA do not agree on. One inch snow accumulation difference in a metropolitan area of nearly 1-2 million people like the LV and northern Montgomery/Bucks county (more population than many states) does not make sense whatsoever . I hope they revise the winter weather advisories to WSW warnings and issue one for the northern Montgomery/Bucks county and the LV, especially since they calling for 8 in in the point forecast for Macungie PA and the criteria is 6 in. This is one storm I would err and be cautious about because of the higher snow ration and colder temps and blowing snow. There will be lots of accidents Friday night rush hour with drivers trying to beat the storm to ge to their destinations as many roads will be snow packed quickly 2. Blowing snow was also inserted into the forecast. Thank you Mt. Holly. This storm event will be discussed by all the posters and the media as being remembered for the blowing snow, frigid temps and lower visibilities and not just for high snow accumulations. This is the type of storm the old folks like me really remember of how winter should be and not just having the back breaking 20 inch snow events. Macungie point forecast Tonight A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Snow. High near 28. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Friday Night A chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 12. Wind chill values as low as zero. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Saturday Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -1. Blustery, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Saturday Night Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 27. Blustery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 32 minutes ago, RedSky said: Start timing continues to move up now it's closer to 5-6am Don't sleep 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Don't sleep Dude the first few hours of snow are a waste of time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 But I did like a 9-10am start time better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, Albedoman said: for those who do not know: 1. Winter storm warnings were issued for those areas where the 5 in snowfall criteria for issuing the warning has been met in the models. Unfortunately Montgomery/Bucks county were split down the middle with the existing WSW snowfall criteria levels for winter storm warnings. This is one scenario where me and the NOAA do not agree on. One inch snow accumulation difference in a metropolitan area of nearly 1-2 million people like the LV and northern Montgomery/Bucks county (more population than many states) does not make sense whatsoever . I hope they revise the winter weather advisories to WSW warnings and issue one for the northern Montgomery/Bucks county and the LV, especially since they calling for 8 in in the point forecast for Macungie PA and the criteria is 6 in. This is one storm I would err and be cautious about because of the higher snow ration and colder temps and blowing snow. There will be lots of accidents Friday night rush hour with drivers trying to beat the storm to ge to their destinations as many roads will be snow packed quickly 2. Blowing snow was also inserted into the forecast. Thank you Mt. Holly. This storm event will be discussed by all the posters and the media as being remembered for the blowing snow, frigid temps and lower visibilities and not just for high snow accumulations. This is the type of storm the old folks like me really remember of how winter should be and not just having the back breaking 20 inch snow events. Macungie point forecast Tonight A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Snow. High near 28. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Friday Night A chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 12. Wind chill values as low as zero. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Saturday Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -1. Blustery, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Saturday Night Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 27. Blustery. Those warnings were issued where the latest NWS forecast snowfall totals meet criteria, not the models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 From the most recent AFD Quote Bands of heavier snow may enhance the wet bulb effect, resulting in colder surface temperatures and higher liquid to snow ratios. This will result in locally higher snow amounts. Overall, liquid to snow ratios will be on the order of 14:1 to 17:1, but could get as high as 20:1. Straight powdah as they say up north. That would also explain the higher projected totals area wide than what some of the models are spitting out on the clown maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, MGorse said: Those warnings were issued where the latest NWS forecast snowfall totals meet criteria, not the models. Where is the NWS coming up with these 6-7” forecasts in monmouth and ocean county? Every piece of modeling indicates 2” maybe abs have been getting drier? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I just don’t understand where these aggressive numbers from Mt. Holly are coming from. There is virtually no model support for widespread 4-6.” Aside from maybe the HREF. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said: Where is the NWS coming up with these 6-7” forecasts in monmouth and ocean county? Every piece of modeling indicates 2” maybe abs have been getting drier? Read the AFD, it explains it pretty well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: Read the AFD, it explains it pretty well. Not really. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, Duca892 said: Hope these South shifts stop. Was looking forward to a nice 4in Wish My wife would tell me this. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djdude2122 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Straight powdah as they say up north. That would also explain the higher projected totals area wide than what some of the models are spitting out on the clown maps. But we aren't going to be that frigid. I could see 12:1 ratios but most of us are seeing lighter returns until you get to the Philly area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Any official thread for tomorrow’s storm…..?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said: Any official thread for tomorrow’s storm…..?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12 minutes ago, Djdude2122 said: But we aren't going to be that frigid. I could see 12:1 ratios but most of us are seeing lighter returns until you get to the Philly area. Ah, so you know more than professional meteorologists. Got it. Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djdude2122 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, hazwoper said: Ah, so you know more than professional meteorologists. Got it. Thanks. wow really.. I deal with middle schoolers all day. I don't need it here. Thought this was a weather CHAT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Djdude2122 said: wow really.. I deal with middle schoolers all day. I don't need it here. Thought this was a weather CHAT. Again, post less, read more. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djdude2122 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, hazwoper said: Again, post less, read more. Thanks LOL. Right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Djdude2122 said: wow really.. I deal with middle schoolers all day. I don't need it here. Thought this was a weather CHAT. It’s currently 32 at my house with a DP of 18. Ho read up on wet bulbing in storms like this one. You might learn something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Nice little band of snow entering eastern PA. Via the radar scope app there isn't anything reaching the ground unless you are in western PA. That catchup wave in Iowa looks healthy. Hoping this over performs. My over/under in Reading is 3". Cheers guys. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 When the Winter Storm Warning notification came across…. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 29 minutes ago, MGorse said: Those warnings were issued where the latest NWS forecast snowfall totals meet criteria, not the models. I misspoke sorry. But the idea of splitting three very urbanized counties with one inch snowfall differences for issuing WSW needs to be immediately rethought. Its been 5+ years since this new criteria was adopted and there has been significant population increases along with increased dependency on traveling between the LV, Bucks and Montgomery counties and even into the Poconos. These areas are quickly becoming very interdependent as far as workplace, housing and recreation, especially with all of the warehouses being built in the LV and Poconos. WE are the one of the fastest growing urbanized areas in the entire country and number one in the state. The current expansion of the NE turnpike is a fine example of what I am talking about. I hope MT Holly sits down after this winter season and considers lowering the WSW criteria to 5 inches all the way to the Poconos. As the old timer travelers advisories were once issued when snowfall was over four inches. That snowfall criteria should have been maintained for winter storm warnings and should have never been changed IMHO. The four inch criteria was set in place as the point when it became harder for snow plow drivers to clear the roads in only one pass. The problem still exists today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Signs of life in here and peeps getting chippy, I like it It's like the return of the living dead 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, RedSky said: Signs of life in here and peeps getting chippy, I like it It's like the return of the living dead I am out see you for Hurricane Tracking in August! Before I go 29.7f humidity 39% dewpoint 9f pressure 29.92 steady cloudy snowfall so far 0.00" My bar for tomorrow is 4.3" here in Media Delaware County. Start time 4:57 am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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