Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 A few buddies refer to me as 'weatherman'. With that said was just on a group call and they asked what to expect. So I said exactly as above, "really a general 1-3" but could be a 3-5" strip where the Norlun band sets up". The responses I got reminded me how much a weather nerd I really am. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 57 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said: If we’re going with 4-8, why isn’t this WWA not bumped up to a WSW? Serious question. Because it isn't widespread and those totals probably won't verify on the high end (6-8"), but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 16 minutes ago, JTA66 said: We're talking about tenths of an inch liquid equivalent...good luck sorting that out. Exactly. This does not have much moisture with it at all. And if we are counting on ratios to save us, remember it will be near 30, we aren't talking teens. 12:1 imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: A few buddies refer to me as 'weatherman'. With that said was just on a group call and they asked what to expect. So I said exactly as above, "really a general 1-3" but could be a 3-5" strip where the Norlun band sets up". The responses I got reminded me how much a weather nerd I really am. It's amazing how many folks are weather nerds - I was asked to do a write up on the Norlun Trough yesterday on the FB page - non nerds want to know!!! I have welcomed almost 300 people since yesterday and the chatter has been nonstop over there! As our friend Ben Franklin said "some are weatherwise and some are otherwise" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 HRRR keeps bringing the Norlun trough south. Not liking the trends - not just with the HRRR but all the models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Exactly. This does not have much moisture with it at all. And if we are counting on ratios to save us, remember it will be near 30, we aren't talking teens. 12:1 imo. At the surface we will near 30, but upper levels will be plenty cold to produce high ratio snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nodriveslow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 54 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Whatever happened to DT? I used to enjoy arguing with him....did not take much before he started to drop the f bombs....good times! Those were the days - "Fargin Icehole" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 23 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: HRRR keeps bringing the Norlun trough south. Not liking the trends - not just with the HRRR but all the models. I mean seriously this will wiggle back and forth like every hour on the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: At the surface we will near 30, but upper levels will be plenty cold to produce high ratio snow. Also you will be injecting true arctic air on a NE wind colliding with the Norlun trough squeezing everything out. The most intense Norluns troughs can produce 1"+ hour rates and have thunder. I am not saying that will happen here with this Norlun trough I am sure there are all kinds of different orientaitons and set ups and intensities. This Norlun trough is set up in a west to east or west-southwest to east-northeast orientation hence the models wiggling around with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 WSW‼️‼️ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will rapidly drop into the teens late Friday night. Any untreated roads will become icy and dangerous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Only for counties that may be impacted by the IVT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, kickingupastorm said: If we’re going with 4-8, why isn’t this WWA not bumped up to a WSW? Serious question. Winter Storm Warning. Called it. 5-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Only for counties that may be impacted by the IVT “Livin’ on the edge”‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Winter Weather Advisory for Upper Bucks County Issued by National Weather Service Philadelphia, PA 2:48 PM EST Thu, Jan 18, 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey and east central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will rapidly drop into the teens late Friday night. Any untreated roads will become icy and dangerous. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: “Livin’ on the edge”‼️ Literal bullseye here. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18z NAM continues the inching south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Winter Storm Warning at the end of my street, but I'm just under a WWA. Yeah, Mike probably pulled the trigger just to shut us up 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18z NAM continues the inching south 3k is significantly further north then 12z.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: Winter Storm Warning at the end of my street, but I'm just under a WWA. Yeah, Mike probably pulled the trigger just to shut us up LOL. Nope, not my decision. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, kickingupastorm said: Literal bullseye here. Nice. Lumberville, PA is literally the line between Lower Bucks and Upper Bucks… I’ll go with 5”‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Start timing continues to move up now it's closer to 5-6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Winter Storm Warning at the end of my street, but I'm just under a WWA. Yeah, Mike probably pulled the trigger just to shut us up I’m just the opposite… thanks Mike‼️ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: 3k is significantly further north then 12z. . Were losing this inch by inch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Were losing this inch by inch It’s literally the difference of 1-1.5” lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, anthonyweather said: It’s literally the difference of 1-1.5” lol . Yeah next week when it grows spring like this will be long forgotten 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Yeah next week when it grows spring like this will be long forgotten I mean, 2-3” will be the norm, if a 4” lollipop makes the phillly crew feel like they got a foot, good for them . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 21 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will rapidly drop into the teens late Friday night. Any untreated roads will become icy and dangerous. When was the last WSW in our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Tonight Snow likely, mainly after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Snow. High near 29. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Friday Night A chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 12. Wind chill values as low as zero. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Saturday Areas of blowing snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as zero. Blustery, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Saturday Night Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, anthonyweather said: I mean, 2-3” will be the norm, if a 4” lollipop makes the phillly crew feel like they got a foot, good for them . Don't forget the MA side they will celebrate the shift south like it's New Years again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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