anthonyweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Latest SREF 9zHoning In on LV To NW philly hammer zone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 My. Holly going for 4-6in for a pretty large area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 17 minutes ago, Duca892 said: My. Holly going for 4-6in for a pretty large area Sounds a bit excessive... 19F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 40 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Friday night/Saturday will be the most winter-ish weather we had in a while. Couple of inches, snow on snow, temps in the teens/20s and windy.... 18F Said this yesterday: this model indicates near 5.5 inches for my location. I say bring it on. LMAO . But folks its not the snow amounts that interest me at this time. For the first time in at least five years or more, we will have what I call the 3F's 1. fluffy high ratio snows, 2. frigid temps and 3. frequent gusts of high winds near 35 mph. The 3F's will produce a pretty good amount blowing of snow and drifting on local flat and or steep roads, especially in the countryside. As soon as the plows open them up, they will be be clogged again within a few hours with drifting snow. Now thats a real winter to me. Mt Holly has not included blowing snow in their forecasts this evening. That is troublesome to me but I expect them to issue a special statement on the blowing snow scenario for Saturday by Friday afternoon Cannot wait for the blowing snow statement- just as good as a winter storm warning- Eye candy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 19 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Sounds a bit excessive... 19F Amounts are no higher than 4-5 inches currently in the forecast (map plots as 4-6 inches). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12 minutes ago, Albedoman said: Said this yesterday: this model indicates near 5.5 inches for my location. I say bring it on. LMAO . But folks its not the snow amounts that interest me at this time. For the first time in at least five years or more, we will have what I call the 3F's 1. fluffy high ratio snows, 2. frigid temps and 3. frequent gusts of high winds near 35 mph. The 3F's will produce a pretty good amount blowing of snow and drifting on local flat and or steep roads, especially in the countryside. As soon as the plows open them up, they will be be clogged again within a few hours with drifting snow. Now thats a real winter to me. Mt Holly has not included blowing snow in their forecasts this evening. That is troublesome to me but I expect them to issue a special statement on the blowing snow scenario for Saturday by Friday afternoon Cannot wait for the blowing snow statement- just as good as a winter storm warning- Eye candy What is a 'blowing snow statement'? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, MGorse said: What is a 'blowing snow statement'? sorry, Mike my age is showing. The current winter weather advisory should be continued into Saturday morning based on perhaps satisfying part of this criteria below Blowing snow advisory (WSW) – Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour (40 to 56 km/h) accompanied by falling and blowing snow, occasionally reducing visibilities to 1⁄4 mile (0.40 km) or less, will occur for at least three hours. Discontinued beginning with the 2008-2009 winter storm season and replaced by the Winter Weather Advisory for Blowing Snow.[24] If the criteria is not meant, then a special hazardous statement maybe issued similar to when there is black ice.. Anyway, blowing snow will be an issue in the rural areas. Its been a real long time - before 2009 - since we have had this type of weather with high snow ratios and winds together and drivers will not be used to it thats for sure too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12 minutes ago, Albedoman said: sorry, Mike my age is showing. The current winter weather advisory should be continued into Saturday morning based on perhaps satisfying part of this criteria below Blowing snow advisory (WSW) – Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour (40 to 56 km/h) accompanied by falling and blowing snow, occasionally reducing visibilities to 1⁄4 mile (0.40 km) or less, will occur for at least three hours. Discontinued beginning with the 2008-2009 winter storm season and replaced by the Winter Weather Advisory for Blowing Snow.[24] If the criteria is not meant, then a special hazardous statement maybe issued similar to when there is black ice.. Anyway, blowing snow will be an issue in the rural areas. Its been a real long time - before 2009 - since we have had this type of weather with high snow ratios and winds together and drivers will not be used to it thats for sure too. That will be reviewed again during today, but yes definitely looks like a good setup for a period of blowing and drifting snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Virga, 22F/DP 9F FWIW, Jim Cantore thinks tomorrow could be a slight overachiever from NYC to Philly. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Sounds a bit excessive... 19F Not based on the mesos, which should be used at this point for small features such as inverted troughs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Based on latest SREF potential for 3" or more highest probabilities run across much of NW Chester County - Montgomery County and over to Central NJ. With a pretty quick reduction in % chances as you get up to the Lehigh Valley and over to NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 HRRR 3km aligns has modeled relative highest snow totals running from NW Chester County over to Central NJ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 26 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Not based on the mesos, which should be used at this point for small features such as inverted troughs Agree the only thing that GFS and others will do is smooth things out for a general 1-3" the greatest potential to this event is to follow the dynamic models and meso models which hone in on the banding and lift over the inverted trough that will lie east to west across southern PA into Central NJ it will act as a conveyor belt for the moisture to track over almost like traning thudnerstorms in the summer. The railroad track is being laid down as we speak with this weak disturbance pulling through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 We might be seeing some high ratio snow with this setup so I think the widespread 4-6" is a good call. With some luck and if this Norlun (which don't always show up on modeling) gets pumping the moisture somebody could Jackpot with 8" or 10" (maybe in Nantmeal, Huff's Church, Finland Village etc.). Although I think we'll be seeing more like 3-4" imby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, zenmsav6810 said: We might be seeing some high ratio snow with this setup so I think the widespread 4-6" is a good call. With some luck and if this Norlun (which don't always show up on modeling) gets pumping the moisture somebody could Jackpot with 8" or 10" (maybe in Nantmeal, Huff's Church, Finland Village etc. . Although I think we'll be seeing more like 3-4" imby. I have also seen in these situations some enhancements as moisture is lifted into the modest hills as you move N and W of the fall line - glad I am not a professional forecaster. Feel like trying to predict exact t-storm totals.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Latest 3km NAM now brings the enhanced band to south of the M/D line - in line with what Bernie Rayno predicted yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 55 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Not based on the mesos, which should be used at this point for small features such as inverted troughs Hrrr is 4-7" 3k targets Baltimore and pts south of the Mason Dixon Fv3 is a non event 12k is 1-3" Pick your poison. I choose a #1 with cheese....whopper time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shenanagins1091 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Been following along for weeks here, it's pretty cool how even in December we knew 1/5 to 1/22 would be a good period. I don't see the 4-6" happening as an amateur, none of the guidance really shows it unless you start nit picking around for stuff like the HRRR using kuchera ratio. 2-4" is such a solid bet for PHL S&E and maybe 3-5" N&W, ready to lock that in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Shenanagins1091 said: Been following along for weeks here, it's pretty cool how even in December we knew 1/5 to 1/22 would be a good period. I don't see the 4-6" happening as an amateur, none of the guidance really shows it unless you start nit picking around for stuff like the HRRR using kuchera ratio. 2-4" is such a solid bet for PHL S&E and maybe 3-5" N&W, ready to lock that in. If I was making a forecast that sounds solid in my view.....but what do I know!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: If I was making a forecast that sounds solid in my view.....but what do I know!! This seems to be the hot spot for our area at this point but we all know there's a good chance it probably won't pan out exactly like this... 24F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: This seems to be the hot spot for our area at this point but we all know there's a good chance it probably won't pan out exactly like this... 24F That last run of the 3km NAM makes be think that red circle will come in further south then that....we shall see - it will probably move further north again next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 As Agnes would say, it's ditty-bobbin' around. We're inside 24hrs now, so we're moving into now-casting (then we enter the final stage of weenie tracking: radar hallucination). Going with 2-3" imby with lollies of 4". 28F/DP 10F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: This seems to be the hot spot for our area at this point but we all know there's a good chance it probably won't pan out exactly like this... 24F I’m right outside that line in Central Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Something to watch later next week during the 'relax' pattern as it starts to transition. Several ops and ens members have been hinting at a well-time HP moving along the NE with good placement as moisture runs up from the South. Would take a good bit of things to go right, but since guidance had been hinting figured it was worth mentioning at least. Here's the GFS depiction: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 48 minutes ago, JTA66 said: As Agnes would say, it's ditty-bobbin' around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 40 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Something to watch later next week during the 'relax' pattern as it starts to transition. Several ops and ens members have been hinting at a well-time HP moving along the NE with good placement as moisture runs up from the South. Would take a good bit of things to go right, but since guidance had been hinting figured it was worth mentioning at least. Here's the GFS depiction: FWIW probably a quick 1-3" then a flip to rain in SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 DT and fox 29 latest . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 9 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: DT and fox 29 latest . Is DT on crack or something? That is just a ridiculous map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, LVblizzard said: Is DT on crack or something? That is just a ridiculous map. Fox29 seems a bit aggressive too. Hope these latest mesos s shifts/drier are just the windshield wiper effect and not reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Is DT trying to one up JB? 4" NYC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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