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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion


The Iceman
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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Welp. Pretty damn foggy out there. Outdoor Christmas lights on....all good.

39F/Fog

 

a very clear sign that tomorrow afternoon/evening is going to be a royal rumbler with flooding rains. The atmosphere is loading up for the show with all of the warm air advection going on. Seen this scenario unfold many times in December. T storms, squall lines and very damaging winds coming our way. I will state emphatically right now that since this storm will be so dynamic with all of this moisture loading up at this time of the year  and the fact it is already in the mid 40's at my house this morning., we will be under severe t- storm watch tomorrow afternoon , mostly for damaging straight line winds.  The flooding rains will be the main  by product this time but you will not forget about the winds.  The front is so dynamic that I also say half dollar size snowflakes with a 1-3 inches of snow and very gusty winds will be on our doorstep Monday morning is very possible scenario for the LV and northern Montgomery/Bucks area. 

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6 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

12z hi-res models are really bullish on Monday morning snow, especially west of I-95. If we can get that trough to dig just a little more we could be looking at some decent accumulations closer to the cities.
 

IMG_0258.png

3K Nam flipped pretty quickly so there is that showed snow through the Delaware River into New Jersey.  I think definitely I would side with the dynamical models here with this one models like the GFS just don't cut it. 

I like our chances for snow Monday Morning 4 am to 10 am especially the Delaware River west, northwest, north, and northeast. 

I will go with 1-3" mainly on the grass with wet to perhaps slushy roads especially north and west. 

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ironically isn't this the window where ppl were saying we would torch in early Dec? Yet this would be the 3rd time already (4th total) in Dec we see flakes. Trend thus far is it wants to snow. Can't wait to see where we're at 3 or 4 weeks from now.

Second that!  Trying to remember if we saw flakes at all in November or December last year (sarcasm).

 

I am going with snow totals for the year of 20-30" for Delaware Co

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A bit foggy this AM but it should burn away later and yield a nice mild afternoon. Clouds will be increasing later today with rain arriving by tomorrow morning. Windy and rainy through tomorrow night....all models still show the rain mixing with and changing to some wet snow by Monday morning. Of note the NWS does not have snow in the forecast at this time. However, If it does occur it will be a wet snow with temps never falling below freezing....this does not mean snow cannot accumulate especially in the higher elevations of the county on non-paved surfaces etc.
Records for today: 71 (1966) / Low 6 (1989) / Rain 1.80" (2009) / Snow 7.8" (2005)
image.png.b649d15c9c4e8fe6f3c30e092863cb10.png
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34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ironically isn't this the window where ppl were saying we would torch in early Dec? Yet this would be the 3rd time already (4th total) in Dec we see flakes. Trend thus far is it wants to snow. Can't wait to see where we're at 3 or 4 weeks from now.

Seriously! If I didn’t have windows and my only access to weather info was this board, you’d think we’ve consistently been in the 60’s and 70’s this month.

Some years we can’t buy a flake, but early signs are the atmosphere can produce frozen for us this year.

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Bottomed out at 37 this morning and the fog/low stratus was thick but much of that has lifted now although it is still misty and overcast.

Currently 44 with dp 44.

6z hi-res Euro does throw a changeover into the mix for tomorrow.  I noticed what was originally a more inland low has been pushed east and at least according to the Euro, may bomb out when it gets off the coast of NE. However it looks like the accums would still be N/W with the colder air.

floop-6z-ecmwf_full-2023120906.prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus-12092023.gif

floop-6z-snow-ecmwf_full-2023120906.snodpc_acc-imp.us_ne-12092023.gif

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ironically isn't this the window where ppl were saying we would torch in early Dec? Yet this would be the 3rd time already (4th total) in Dec we see flakes. Trend thus far is it wants to snow. Can't wait to see where we're at 3 or 4 weeks from now.

Always the optimist remember those cold and snow chances for early November lol

More than a little concerned about this Sinbad of Arabia Pacific jet streak that has North America torched. But a greater than average chance of a big snowstorm occuring with the El Nino juiced up jet in Jan-Feb. 

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9 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ironically isn't this the window where ppl were saying we would torch in early Dec? Yet this would be the 3rd time already (4th total) in Dec we see flakes. Trend thus far is it wants to snow. Can't wait to see where we're at 3 or 4 weeks from now.

Don't tell anyone in the other forums this. Their heads might explode. 

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