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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion


The Iceman
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A note regarding the NWS total snowfall graphic. 
 

If the forecast amounts just cross over a whole number it bumps to the next range. For example, an area of 4.1 to 4.5 inches will be plotted as 4-6 inches. In this case, the forecast actually is not for 5-6 inches. 

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39 minutes ago, MGorse said:

A note regarding the NWS total snowfall graphic. 
 

If the forecast amounts just cross over a whole number it bumps to the next range. For example, an area of 4.1 to 4.5 inches will be plotted as 4-6 inches. In this case, the forecast actually is not for 5-6 inches. 

I could see how this might be a point of confusion with the public. 

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4 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:


I mean at the end of the day there’s really not that much of a difference between 4 inches and 6 inches once it’s on the ground


.

True but it can end up crossing advisory versus warning criteria. And the WSW product has 2-4 inches but the graphic has an area of 4-6 inches. 

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Just now, LVblizzard said:

We have officially been NAM’d. 0z run slams us with the inverted trough.

 

Yep we are on the conveyor belt of cold to the north of the trough squeezing out all the moisture with pretty cold temps so higher snow ratios.  We lift off!!  I mean a lifting mechanism.

 

It is uncanny how similar this set up looks to February 6th into 7th 2016 with the inverted Norlun trough this one here on Friday is just over a much larger area. 

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2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

NBM creeping up though...

Ic

razor sharp cut off about 35 miles away if you are like me in extreme SE pa.  This has a classic Norlun trough look.  I would put more stock into dynamic short range dynamic models instead of Icon, GFS, and Euro they are just going to smooth things out.  While the NAM's of the world will hone in on more local dynamic features like lift along the norlun trough to wring out all available moisture to efficiently mix with cold air feeding down from the NNE and NE.

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Just now, Kevin Reilly said:

razor sharp cut off about 35 miles away if you are like me in extreme SE pa.  This has a classic Norlun trough look.  I would put more stock into dynamic short range dynamic models instead of Icon, GFS, and Euro they are just going to smooth things out.  While the NAM's of the world will hone in on more local dynamic features like lift along the norlun trough to wring out all available moisture to efficiently mix with cold air feeding down from the NNE and NE.

agreed! That's why I like the 3k more than the 12k NAM

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Temperatures have started to rebound across the area with clouds on the increase after a low of 14 degrees at 330 this morning. A cloudy day today with temps remaining below freezing across most of Chester County for the 4th consecutive. The below freezing streak looks to continue across the area until Monday at the earliest. Light snow should arrive toward daybreak tomorrow and continue much of the day tomorrow. Snow totals should range from 2" to 4" across SW Chester County to 3" to 5" as we move NE through Chester County and into Montgomery and Bucks counties. We could see a little blowing and drifting snow later Friday night into Saturday and temps will struggle to get much above the teens with wind chills near or below zero. A warming trend gets underway next week as we get our January Thaw.
Records for today: High 66 (1973) / Low 4 below (1994) / Rain 1.15" (1915) / Snow 6.0" (1930)
 

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Temperatures spiked this morning to 18.  Vast improvement from yesterday.

Weather Sentry has a 5" solid hit for MBY tomorrow.  We'll have to see where the bands set up. 

Looks like the Bermuda high is parked there for the next 7-10 days afterward dragging up those Cleveland steamers.

Everyone take a break and reload in two weeks. I was told to "buckle up" in February.   

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