The Iceman Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Mt. Holly first call seems fairly bullish: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Mt. Holly first call seems fairly bullish: I'd be pumped for 4-6" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 TTN bullseye? Nah wont verify 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Glorious afternoon. 24F Lots of sunshine and you can grocery shop during lunch break and only have to move those bags once since the trunk doubles as a refrigerator. More snow coming too. Will be interested to see where that Norlun stream sets up. I can't recall models getting those right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 One of my favorites professionals is Bernie Rayno....he sees a general 1" to 3" across our area with the highest totals from DC to Baltimore over to Atlantic City (3" to 6" with maybe 8") 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Mt. Holly first call seems fairly bullish: Well to be honest I was in the 4-6 range and ended up with 3.5 last storm so there’s that. Be nice to see that verify for the folks that are always on the changeover fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Well to be honest I was in the 4-6 range and ended up with 3.5 last storm so there’s that. Be nice to see that verify for the folks that are always on the changeover fence. A blanket call of 1-3/2-4 would have been better. Trying to call a Norlun this far out is a crap shoot. Honestly won’t even have an idea on it until it’s happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18z HRRR is certainly interesting. Won’t let me add the image for some reason but take a look for yourself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Updated NWS Point and Click have 1.5" to 2.5" for most of Eastern PA from Allentown down through most of the Philly burbs with up to 3" possible over toward Phily - seems not buying what above Hrrr is selling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18z NAM looks very close to what is in the current NWS Forecast with a little less snow north and west and the focus of snows ( IVT?) over the I95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Our area now under a WWA from Thursday evening through Friday evening.... 2" to 4" is their current call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18z HRRR is certainly interesting. Won’t let me add the image for some reason but take a look for yourself.It’s a Friday morning start. Not Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, anthonyweather said: A blanket call of 1-3/2-4 would have been better. Trying to call a Norlun this far out is a crap shoot. Honestly won’t even have an idea on it until it’s happening . I’ll take 2-4 just nice to have the threats actually workout for once. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: It’s a Friday morning start. Not Thursday night . Overnight Thursday means late late night. Like 3-4 am. Just accounting for that possibility. I do think 6-8 am is most likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 My high so far today has only been 23, which is my current temp, with dp 8. Have been getting some insolation of the snow in south/southwest-facing areas but anything that had melted after being treated last night, froze into a glacier. I did finally start clearing the car and there was a solid 1/4" layer of ice on top of a couple inches of powder. Mt. Holly's first cut + 3k 18z NAM and a WWA is up. Quote Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 DEZ001-002-NJZ016>022-027-PAZ070-071-101-102-104-106-181100- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.240119T0500Z-240120T0000Z/ New Castle-Kent-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington- Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware- Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery- Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton, Wharton State Forest, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 316 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From midnight Thursday night to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will rapidly drop into the teens late Friday night. Any untreated roads will become icy and dangerous. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: Mt. Holly first call seems fairly bullish: Take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, ChescoWx said: this model indicates near 5.5 inches for my location. I say bring it on. LMAO . But folks its not the snow amounts that interest me at this time. For the first time in at least five years or more, we will have what I call the 3F's 1. fluffy high ratio snows, 2. frigid temps and 3. frequent gusts of high winds near 35 mph. The 3F's will produce a pretty good amount blowing of snow and drifting on local flat and or steep roads, especially in the countryside. As soon as the plows open them up, they will be be clogged again within a few hours with drifting snow. Now thats a real winter to me. Mt Holly has not included blowing snow in their forecasts this evening. That is troublesome to me but I expect them to issue a special statement on the blowing snow scenario for Saturday by Friday afternoon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 48 minutes ago, Albedoman said: this model indicates near 5.5 inches for my location. I say bring it on. LMAO . But folks its not the snow amounts that interest me at this time. For the first time in at least five years or more, we will have what I call the 3F's 1. fluffy high ratio snows, 2. frigid temps and 3. frequent gusts of high winds near 35 mph. The 3F's will produce a pretty good amount blowing of snow and drifting on local flat and or steep roads, especially in the countryside. As soon as the plows open them up, they will be be clogged again within a few hours with drifting snow. Now thats a real winter to me. Mt Holly has not included blowing snow in their forecasts this evening. That is troublesome to me but I expect them to issue a special statement on the blowing snow scenario for Saturday by Friday afternoon I suspect this one will impact folks further south and east from the Lehigh Valley with the relative higher amounts....that said the ratios will be good so should not take a lot of precip to get us to similar snow totals to the last storm for most locales... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 hours ago, ChescoWx said: One of my favorites professionals is Bernie Rayno....he sees a general 1" to 3" across our area with the highest totals from DC to Baltimore over to Atlantic City (3" to 6" with maybe 8") Quote No Model shows this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 hours ago, ChescoWx said: 2 hours ago, ChescoWx said: The HRRR model was awful last storm, and this is kind of not in range yet on the HRRR model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 hours ago, ChescoWx said: 18z NAM looks very close to what is in the current NWS Forecast with a little less snow north and west and the focus of snows ( IVT?) over the I95 corridor. Wherever the Norlun Trough sets up will be where you have a sweet spot 4-6" most likely east to west I would think through Chester, Delaware County, then move ENE from there south of the Mason Dixon Line is drops off for now. The Vort to our south cruising just south of Baltimore or DC needs to drop just a bit more to affect more people with the moderate snow band. Also, I would think to see these changes at 0z tonight and see if we can increase the ascent of warm air up and over the top as this clipper like system glides to our south and hands off to a developing coastal moving out to sea. This is a tricky situation, but for now I favor Extreme SE Pa over to Central New Jersey over to Ocean County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Wherever the Norlun Trough sets up will be where you have a sweet spot 4-6" most likely east to west I would think through Chester, Delaware County, then move ENE from there south of the Mason Dixon Line is drops off for now. The Vort to our south cruising just south of Baltimore or DC needs to drop just a bit more to affect more people with the moderate snow band. Also, I would think to see these changes at 0z tonight and see if we can increase the ascent of warm air up and over the top as this clipper like system glides to our south and hands off to a developing coastal moving out to sea. This is a tricky situation, but for now I favor Extreme SE Pa over to Central New Jersey over to Ocean County. Solid thoughts IMO thanks Kevin! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Love Norlun troughs (not) they are very difficult to predict. If I recall the NAM and dynamic models did best with the set up way back. The NAM showed like 7" for Delaware County all other models showed literally nothing. Results: Media 7" Colwyn Delaware County just SW of the Airport 10" Swedesboro NJ over to Mulica Hill NJ and Pittman NJ 12" some thunder and lightning. Lancaster 4" western most part of the norlun trough also had some thunder and lightning. Wilmington De 1.6" Southern Chester County 0.5" Bensalem Bucks County a few pixie flurries with moon shine. I am not sure of the year think John Bolaris was calling for left over light snow and flurries then quickly moving out by 6 pm. Our reality in Media Delaware County 7" of moderate to heavy snow for 6 hours. Not sure of the year 2005? 2007? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Some Chesco climate data for today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Some Chesco climate data for today Nashville, TN I saw -3 I don't remember the last time they went below zero that far south? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Found this Norlun in the area from 2016. Here in East Nantmeal we ended with 7.3" - long duration event with the heavy period of snow falling in the late afternoon of February 9th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Anyone going to create an official storm thread for Friday’s storm? It’s about that time…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Found this Norlun in the area from 2016. Here in East Nantmeal we ended with 7.3" - long duration event with the heavy period of snow falling in the late afternoon of February 9th That's it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Expectation set for 2" snow, low has been the way to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now