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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion


The Iceman
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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Snowman inflatable is dead. May it RIP under a  layer of fresh snow. Seems fitting.

Find the leak...patch it up w/ duct tape etc in a jiffy. Tons of time before the Birds fail/make it.

Snow line seems to be just stuck S of me...

26F

 

nw2.jpg

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Just now, Birds~69 said:

Find the leak...patch it up w/ duct tape etc in a jiffy. Tons of time before the Birds fail/make it.

Snow line seems to be just stuck S of me...

26F

 

nw2.jpg

Motor is in a block of ice inside the inflatable. Unplugged it last week due to winds. Didn't realize it was packed in ice and frozen to the ground. May still work once thawed...not sure. It will be fine under the fresh snowpack....meant to be. The Let it Snow flag is flying proud tho and the white Christmas lights still glowing. 

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Motor is in a block of ice inside the inflatable. Unplugged it last week due to winds. Didn't realize it was packed in ice and frozen to the ground. May still work once thawed...not sure. It will be fine under the fresh snowpack....meant to be. The Let it Snow flag is flying proud tho and the white Christmas lights still glowing. 

Oh, that's a whole different story. Drag it inside and let it thaw....put it next to the heater then give it a whirl.

Precip has been stubborn, closing in. Down to 25F...  

kick.jpg

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19 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

6z and 12z models generally trending better for a moderate event on Friday. The potential for something big is still there but the consensus seems to be a near miss.

GFS still has it too far OTS for my blood. 

NAVGEM looks to be fairly aggressive with it, and a solid SECS. 

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1 minute ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

GFS still has it too far OTS for my blood. 

NAVGEM looks to be fairly aggressive with it, and a solid SECS. 

The GFS had today’s storm completely OTS and not even close 3 days out. It always seems to get completely lost in the days leading up to a storm, then joins the party way too late.

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15 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

GFS still has it too far OTS for my blood. 

NAVGEM looks to be fairly aggressive with it, and a solid SECS. 

NAVGEM is usually a suppressed model so the fact it’s amped and closer to the coast is a red flag. Pretty sure I got that from the @Ralph Wiggumweenie handbook. UKMET is a solid hit here so is the CMC. Should get good ratios with any snow as well. 

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50 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

The GFS had today’s storm completely OTS and not even close 3 days out. It always seems to get completely lost in the days leading up to a storm, then joins the party way too late.

NAM is a 1-2" nuisance level event

Not going to trust the Canadians they are 0-2 so far this winter and show too much snow

 

 

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

NAVGEM is usually a suppressed model so the fact it’s amped and closer to the coast is a red flag. Pretty sure I got that from the @Ralph Wiggumweenie handbook. UKMET is a solid hit here so is the CMC. Should get good ratios with any snow as well. 

The bias you noted is the old NOGAPS. The NAVGEM is ran utilizing the retired NOGAPS algorithms which were 'upgraded' a couple of times yielding the new and improved NAVGEM. Pretty sure that bias has been eliminated.

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20 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Can't use on mobile device tho correct?

They have a mobile version but for "Windows phone" only (I don't even know if M$ makes a phone anymore although I think they still have the Surface tablet).

http://www.grlevelx.com/mrlevel3/

RadarScope is probably the best bet for mobile (also recommended by users of the GRLevelX products).

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