Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 9 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: 12z NAM has a solid 2" to 3" across much of the area by the time the birds game ends,,,,more still to fall This seems a little more realistic at least backing down from their 0z and 6z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Albedoman said: what will it take to make you happy- two back to back SECS? Let those who are starved to see a real winter of a white ground and lows near ten degrees for longer than 48 hours in the last three years enjoy their two inches from this snow event for the next week or so. I am so tired of seeing 3-6 in snows be gone in less than three days. What a waste of a good snowpack. By the way this so called lousy 2-4 in snow event will save the ski resorts this year and give snow removal companies some money. These individuals need this pixie dust and pity flakes more than you anyway LOL I am very happy sir. I am not boo-hooing tonights event. Just noting what some guidance is showing in a non biased manner. I posted last night when we got NAMd, I'm not allowed to post when other guidance goes the other way? Enjoy your snow and cold also sir. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Through yesterday we are at 40% of our normal seasonal snow to date here in NW Chester County. If the models are correct we may get pretty close to normal seasonal snow to date over the next 6 days. Of course we don't shovel models! Some southern areas of Chesco could see some flurries later today but for most snow will hold off till after the 7pm hour. The NWS is forecasting 2" to possibly 4" across the area by the time the snow ends tomorrow morning. Sun returns Wednesday before our next chance of snow arrives on Thursday night. Temperatures for the next week will remain below freezing. Records for today: High 70 (1932) / Low 3 below (1988) / Rain 1.07" (1898) / Snow 6.0" (1927) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Latest NAM still liking the "peaks" of the Welsh Mountain anticline here in Chester and Berks Counties 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Friday looks too far OTS as of now. My Weather Sentry still says game on though. Long range has a Bermuda high set up for a few days with a Cleveland Steamer in tow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 40 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Friday looks too far OTS as of now. My Weather Sentry still says game on though. Long range has a Bermuda high set up for a few days with a Cleveland Steamer in tow. Pattern flips after the Friday system. January thaw. We need to hope it reloads for an eventful February. Signals are mixed on that tho. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 43 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Friday looks too far OTS as of now. My Weather Sentry still says game on though. Long range has a Bermuda high set up for a few days with a Cleveland Steamer in tow. If you like a big east coast storm - I like it to be out to sea at this range. I suspect it starts coming back on most models by 0z tomorrow night 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 GFS really delivers the goods now. Right in line with the rest of modeling.4-6” I-95 to the poconos . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: GFS really delivers the goods now. Right in line with the rest of modeling. 4-6” I-95 to the poconos . NAM leading the way? GFS does look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: GFS really delivers the goods now. Right in line with the rest of modeling. 4-6” I-95 to the poconos . 25F, low clouds...hell, I'll take 2-4" w/football later. Perfect. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The key with the GFS higher totals, it doesnt send the dry slot and mix into SE PA like most of the mesos. Probably should lean on the mesos more at this point no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 ICON was a decent little event for Friday. Cold powder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 My Holly’s latest call: Pretty much in line what I think: 2-4” 95 corridor possibly ending as freezing rain or sleet. 3-5” in the NW burbs all snow. 1-3” S and E of 95 changing over eventually to a mix and dry slot. Should be a nice little event for all. I mean even if some of the other guidance is right about dry slot/mixing 2” should have already fallen at least which would be the biggest event in 2 years. I think this should be a everyone takes storm after 2 years… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 NBC10 @ 11am going with 1-3" Philly, 2-4" local burbs,heaviest stuff during the Birds game. That works... 26F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 It has certainly been a slow decade for snow enthusiasts in the area. Since 2020 we have only had 8 snow events that I would consider at least moderate (more than 4 inches) They are in reverse order 3/12/22 (4.3") / 1/29/22 (5.8") / 1/7/22 (4.3") / 2/22/21 (5.0") / 2/19/21 (7.5") / 2/7/21 (8.8") / 2/3/21 (16.6") and 12/17/20 (9.3") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 12z models trending a bit better for Friday. Still have a ways to go before anything major but the trends are good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This seems a little more realistic at least backing down from their 0z and 6z runs. You’re posting the snow depth change map and not the 10:1 map you were using last night to say we got “NAM’d”. It’s essentially the same output as last night when you were hyping it up you’re just using a different map now to downplay things. Seriously check out the snow depth from 00z, nothing has changed from the NAM’s you’re just using a different product than you were using earlier… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Latest GFS And Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, LVblizzard said: 12z models trending a bit better for Friday. Still have a ways to go before anything major but the trends are good. Once we have cold air in place (and some snow pack) even an inch or two is pretty cool and some wind will help... 26F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Even the cmc is right in line with gfs and NAM. Nice trends the last 18 hours . Game on for everyone . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Dover radar...definitely looks like snow out there. (low clouds) *Someone kick the couch and wake RedSky up... 26F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: You’re posting the snow depth change map and not the 10:1 map you were using last night to say we got “NAM’d”. It’s essentially the same output as last night when you were hyping it up you’re just using a different map now to downplay things. Seriously check out the snow depth from 00z, nothing has changed from the NAM’s you’re just using a different product than you were using earlier… Snow depth maps historically verify better at this range. But you know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Snow depth maps historically verify better at this range. But you know this. Then why hype the storm up last night using the 10:1 map when the snow depth map then was basically the same as it is now? Nothing has really changed in the NAMs guidance, if anything it’s further S with the mix line than it was last night… it didn’t “back down”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Friday looks decent across three major global models. We track again after the impending event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 why anyone would be looking at global models for tonights snow totals is a definite snow weenie. The NAM , RGEM and HRRR thats it baby. There needs to be a blend of all these models for SR forecasting of snow totals within 36 hours of the event, Then many people can hype that instead of whats on the LR 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 52 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Dover radar...definitely looks like snow out there. (low clouds) *Someone kick the couch and wake RedSky up... 26F Why wake me it isn't going to snow until after dark. More night snow but at least there was one day snow storm so we stand at 50/50 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 12z ECM is wetter for the immediate I95 corridor folks with 4-6" on the clown maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 14 minutes ago, RedSky said: Why wake me it isn't going to snow until after dark. More night snow but at least there was one day snow storm so we stand at 50/50 Because *I* have some flakes flying down here right now! Just came in from putting a cover over my windshield. (am about to post in the other thread) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, Hurricane Agnes said: Because *I* have some flakes flying down here right now! Just came in from putting a cover over my windshield. (am about to post in the other thread) Expecting virga through sunset today that is well ahead of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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