Birds~69 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 14 minutes ago, Albedoman said: hell no I will not flip out. 1-2 inch rain is nothing now. a cakewalk. The major sewer lines in our area are fully surcharged and overflows are occuring from inflow from leaky pipes. This does not bode well for the municipalities of the Lehigh County. The township people today pulled the sewer lid out in front of my house and the pipe was full and it was not blocked after they jetted the collector line. Can you say the shit has already hit the fan with these rainfall amounts in the last 30 days? Bring on the cold and snow , I am ready Ya kinda flipped out... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Looks like we still have some hits for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The European hates us, the American loves us, and the Canadian is hot and wet...like usual. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Euro vs the world. Interesting. ICON has a boarderline MECS going. CMC is inland with I-95 getting rain/snow. CMC wants to get something going for next Friday. GFS says southern slider with what looks like a big ole high pressure setting up in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Some lows around the county this AM- East Nantmeal Twp. 29.1 / Atgen 33.6 / Chester Springs 25.7 / Devault 26.1 / Warwick Twp. 23.3 / Glenmoore 27.9 / West Chester 25.0 / Kennett Square 26.0. Flash flood watch tonight with rain arriving from SW to NE across the area after 7pm. We could see around additional inch or more of unneeded rain across the area. Temps will rise tonight to the low 50's before falling all day tomorrow with temps falling below freezing by 6pm. Sunday should see highs into the upper 30's but that may be our last day above freezing for at least the next week. Additionally, snow chances will increase by Tuesday. Of note if and a big if... we do see any snow a couple models are hinting at temperatures near zero by Thursday morning this assumes there is some snow cover. Records for today: High 64 (2020) / Low minus 7 (1981) / Rain 1.98" (1983) / Snow 5.0" (1982) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 21 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Euro vs the world. Interesting. ICON has a boarderline MECS going. CMC is inland with I-95 getting rain/snow. CMC wants to get something going for next Friday. GFS says southern slider with what looks like a big ole high pressure setting up in the midwest. I dont think it happens, though it's not like we haven't seen it before....but if the Euro scores the win and shafts us and the mid atl I may just quit this hobby. This scenario is precisely how Dr No earned its name. I pray to the heavens, please, not this time lol. Honestly, pattern argues against the Euro and I'm betting against it, but we wait and see. I like where we're at right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I dont think it happens, though it's not like we haven't seen it before....but if the Euro scores the win and shafts us and the mid atl I may just quit this hobby. This scenario is precisely how Dr No earned its name. I pray to the heavens, please, not this time lol. Honestly, pattern argues against the Euro and I'm betting against it, but we wait and see. I like where we're at right now. I am guessing perhaps models come in line after tonights storm pulls away. Would you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6z GFS has @Albedoman's clipper swinging thru the midwest finally at 384hr. He says the clipper is what will finally usher in winter for us by the 3rd week of January as per his years of experience. We shall see....the clipper may end up actually being the end of our run instead of the start ironically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Mikeymac5306 said: I am guessing perhaps models come in line after tonights storm pulls away. Would you agree? 0z-12z Sat will really hone in. I think the Euro caves by 0z but I wouldn't be surprised to see it still squashed at 12z today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6z GFS has @Albedoman's clipper swinging thru the midwest finally at 384hr. He says the clipper is what will finally usher in winter for us by the 3rd week of January as per his years of experience. We shall see....the clipper may end up actually being the end of our run instead of the start ironically. better late than never LOL. No more flooding rains hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 13 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Ya kinda flipped out... About 13 inches of rain for many areas in our forecast region IN 30 DAYS IS NOT NORMAL, especially in DEC - JAN. That is over 30% of annual precipitation on semi frozen with little or no evapotranspiration on saturated grounds in less than 8 weeks. Completely different scenario than a summer tropical storm event. I have the absolute right to flip out a little as this crappy rainy weather pattern has never been experienced by the majority of us in our lifetime including me solely in the winter months. 2011 was the last time we had 13 or more inches of rain in any two consecutive months - back to back tropical storms Irene and Lee in August and Septemeber https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/allentown/most-monthly-precipitation. You are now enjoying something that has never been seen in over 125 years of weather recorded history. That is 100 times more interesting than tracking a dam snow storm to a weather buff. The stupid media not picking up on this weather history situation is beyond me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Odd seeing the models in their opposite camps. Usually it's the GFS that's flat and OTS at this stage. And if the Euro has been guilty of anything in recent years, its been over amplifying systems on the EC in the medium to long range. Weenie handbook #43: "We just can't know!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Either way are clearly seeing a big pattern change to colder that looks likely to last right through February. This to me looks like one of the more sustained cold patterns we have seen during the heart of winter in some time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: Odd seeing the models in their opposite camps. Usually it's the GFS that's flat and OTS at this stage. And if the Euro has been guilty of anything in recent years, its been over amplifying systems on the EC in the medium to long range. Weenie handbook #43: "We just can't know!" "whichever model shows the least amount of snow, go with that" tends to pan out more often than not. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The GFS giveth, and taketh away . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Gfs shifting S&e too. So trend?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GFS not too far from the NBM....GFS is in snow pack building mode....storms and rumors of storms incoming!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GFS totals are cut. ICON and CMC still have it SECS'y Will the Euro save us?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 ICON and GFS with similar plowable events while the Canadian is indeed SECSy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I'll gladly take 2-3" of snow, would be the biggest event in a few years. And since we already cancelled next winter, could be the biggest event of the decade Paging Dr. No, anxious weenie await. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Canadian with it's model snow cover thinks we get a bit crisp for a while... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6z GFS has @Albedoman's clipper swinging thru the midwest finally at 384hr. He says the clipper is what will finally usher in winter for us by the 3rd week of January as per his years of experience. We shall see....the clipper may end up actually being the end of our run instead of the start ironically. Isn't a clipper what started the whole chain of events in winter '09-'10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 50 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Canadian with it's model snow cover thinks we get a bit crisp for a while... Now JB can roll out his 77' analog 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Frozen ponds everywhere next week if it doesn't snow so at least that. The yellow jackets will be dead for sure, no trace after that. FInally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Euro came in "snowier"....but not even plowable. Is the trend the Canadian friend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12z ECM is a light car topper 1-1.5" next Tuesday but at it did improve from nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The EURO joins the GFS in seeing 2 snow events this week with #2 on Friday.....As that well respected met JB says "snow gets layed down and the white carpet is ready for the emperor of the north to ride in on" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Kinda getting more key bumped for the 19th-20th now tbh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Looks like a nice squall line bolting through Sunday on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Icon reels it back to the coast. I-95 rain.Going to be a couple runs of yo-yoing here until we settle back in I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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