The Iceman Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I actually preferred the shut-the-blinds pattern tbh. At least we werent wasting our time chasing our tails. This is becoming yet another one of those seasons where MR/LR offer teases which fall apart as lead times shorten. This pretty much has been a shut the blinds look and it looks to continue until at least MLK day at least for the coastal plain. I never bought in to this storm for 95 and burbs because the issues with cold air were pretty apparent even when it was showing snow in the MR. I expect most of the LV to be disappointed as well if they are anticipating a warning level event. 2-4” will be much more common than 4-8” with much more mixing than they currently expect. Poconos should do well though. Now if the block gets as strong as the models are indicating, I honestly expect we get a cold/dry pattern with a southern snowstorm or 2 before we see anything significant. I think late month coming out of the block offers our best potential. Unfortunately this winter is looking more 2016 than 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 So glad I don’t live in a spot where negativity affects my forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 59 minutes ago, The Iceman said: This pretty much has been a shut the blinds look and it looks to continue until at least MLK day at least for the coastal plain. I never bought in to this storm for 95 and burbs because the issues with cold air were pretty apparent even when it was showing snow in the MR. I expect most of the LV to be disappointed as well if they are anticipating a warning level event. 2-4” will be much more common than 4-8” with much more mixing than they currently expect. Poconos should do well though. Now if the block gets as strong as the models are indicating, I honestly expect we get a cold/dry pattern with a southern snowstorm or 2 before we see anything significant. I think late month coming out of the block offers our best potential. Unfortunately this winter is looking more 2016 than 2002. I agree on all points. I posted the same in another subforum here. Cold overwhelms pattern, we turn dry and cold, southeast/southern MA get a MECS,...then we get our 1 and done 'chance' at a typical Nino winter storm as pattern relaxes. I haven't given up on exceeding last years totals but I have discarded any hope of a sustained wintry stormy and cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 59 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: So glad I don’t live in a spot where negativity affects my forecast . 3-5" up your way some 7" lollis. That seems pretty positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3-5" up your way some 7" lollis. That seems pretty positive Yessir! Oh I’m positive about it haha. Setting up the plow trucks today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Some spots had low temps in the teens this morning across the county including Coatesville Airport, Chester Springs and West Bradford Township with the lowest I could find being the 17 degrees in both Warwick and Nottingham Townships. Here in East Nantmeal the low was 20.2 degrees this was the lowest temp I have recorded since the 9.8 above zero last February 4th. Today will be the calm before the storm tomorrow. Snow should arrive during the noon hour from southwest to northeast across the area and quickly change to freezing rain and then over to plain rain by 4pm. The steadiest rain should end by 11pm or so. Total rain and melted snow could total around an inch. Some snow and rain showers could last for a while on Sunday morning. We should see a nice but chilly Monday before a larger rainstorm arrives on Tuesday. Records for today: High 62 (1950) / Low 7 below zero (1904) / Rain 1.56" (1934) / Snow 3.6" (2003) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Keep the faith for the MLK storm. Thats about all we can hang on for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The bottom fell out overnight with the CAA, despite the breezes kicking up during that time, and my low was 23 this morning, with dp going as low as 15. It's been slow to recover with the weak sun but it's currently 29 with dp 18. Humidifiers working overtime. 1 hour ago, anthonyweather said: Yessir! Oh I’m positive about it haha. Setting up the plow trucks today . You and penndotguy with the "big shovels" at the ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 As the trend continues for less snow the big hoser storm also keeps incrementally weakening now closer to 1.50-2" rain event. Mediocrity abounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Made it up to 36 for a high yesterday and bottomed out at 23 this morning around 2:15 am and the temp has been creeping up since ahead of the storm. Currently overcast and 28 with dp 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 28 here. Waiting for the flakes to fall before the change over. Congrats to those to get the jackpot today. Getting concerned about Tuesday, and as it looks now next weekend with two super soakers. Then looks like the cold sets in with a few clippers abound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 LR look blech. Cutters then cold/dry. Longwave pattern doesn't look horrible but we've seen our share of good LR longwave stuff over the past few years that never produced, so color me skeptical. Savor any flakes today like this is it for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12z euro says same place day and time next Saturday we do it all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 33 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12z euro says same place day and time next Saturday we do it all over again. Eps says nope....cutter. euro op on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Eps says nope....cutter. euro op on its own. any snow we get now today is a bonus however it will be all gone in another 48-72 hours or so. The urban flooding will be unreal wednesday. Next weekend will not help much either for the flooding and again any snow that falls may not stick around. I think my first call was 6-8 in for the LV for tonights snow/sleet event and have stuck with that call even though the LP is sticking its warm tongue at us right now. Would not be surprised if this event becomes a sleetfest. 1-3 in of sleet is a bitch to drive on for sure Ralph, how is the the week of 1/21 holding out? LO LR GEM last night says - here I come baby. As I said weeks ago, that was the magic week where the cold stays put for awhile the SJS sends LP's from the GOM toward our area. Get those shovels greased up baby and the Ben gay ready LMAO 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Big flakes now. The pancakes of doom. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 59 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Eps says nope....cutter. euro op on its own. It was all cutter yesterday it's improving 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 hours ago, Albedoman said: any snow we get now today is a bonus however it will be all gone in another 48-72 hours or so. The urban flooding will be unreal wednesday. Next weekend will not help much either for the flooding and again any snow that falls may not stick around. I think my first call was 6-8 in for the LV for tonights snow/sleet event and have stuck with that call even though the LP is sticking its warm tongue at us right now. Would not be surprised if this event becomes a sleetfest. 1-3 in of sleet is a bitch to drive on for sure Ralph, how is the the week of 1/21 holding out? LO LR GEM last night says - here I come baby. As I said weeks ago, that was the magic week where the cold stays put for awhile the SJS sends LP's from the GOM toward our area. Get those shovels greased up baby and the Ben gay ready LMAO That week is looking like a January thaw on some ensembles. Cold pours in next week then rebounds as quick as it showed up. I hope you are correct tho in your call. I wouldn't be popping champagne bottle yet tho based on some of the telleconnections during that period. Last 5 days of Jan into Feb looks prime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 11 days out but what the hell right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said: 11 days out but what the hell right? Funny, haha, maybe you meant this?: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 That storm keeps showing up for the 16th-17th. Just keep showing for now and could be another fun week of tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 We are getting some additional snow showers crossing the County this AM. Temps are near to just above freezing in most spots so be careful out there on back roads and drives etc. Between the melted snow and rain since yesterday a few selected area totals include East Nantmeal 1.11" (2.0" snow) / Atglen 1.22" / Warwick 1.12" (2.0" snow) / Glenmoore 0.96" (1.3" snow) / Chester Springs 1.25" / West Bradford 1.43" / West Chester 1.44" / Kennett Square 1.28" We should see a couple dry days before our next rain event arrives on Tuesday AM this could briefly start as snow but will be a pretty significant rain event for the area. Temps will warm into the upper 40's to near 50 by then. Records for today: High 70 (1907) / Low minus 2 (2014) / Rain 2.12" (1996) / Snow 22.8" (1996) which was the first day of our 5th largest snowstorm in history (28.9") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 11 hours ago, KamuSnow said: Funny, haha, maybe you meant this?: Note to self: Don't drink and try to post maps on Saturday nights. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 32 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Note to self: Don't drink and try to post maps on Saturday nights. I made a similar pledge to myself years ago: stay off eBay and dating sites when drinking. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 It’s like a blizzard here in the Lehigh Valley right now at least 1 in./h snows!!!!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 47 minutes ago, JTA66 said: I made a similar pledge to myself years ago: stay off eBay and dating sites when drinking. Don't forget Craigslist....nothing but trouble. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 As expected flood watches up for entire area till Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 My low ended up being 34 this morning and I hit 40 for a high. Got one more hundredth of an inch of rain to make it 0.12" for the day & 1.30" for the 2 days, with 0.20" of snow yesterday. Since the temp stayed above freezing all last night and during the daytime today, whatever wrap-around snow bands came through here melted into drizzle IMBY, where a few miles north and west (which is more open) apparently resulted in some accumulation. Currently clearing (the sun even tried to pop out earlier today) and 38 with dp 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 A nice calm before the storm type of day today. Sunny with highs near 40 degrees. Heavy Rain tomorrow from late morning through Tuesday night with around 1.5" to 2.5" of rain possible. Winds will gust as high as 40 mph by tomorrow night. Records for today: High 67 (1998) / Low -5 (1981) / Rain 1.81" (1978) / Snow 6.1" (1996) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Can't even hit 60F this winter to setup a Wiggum Rule event. What gives? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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