LVblizzard Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Classic NW of I-95 storm on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro, Ukie and Icon north. GFS crashed at times square with too many layers of rum way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Hey Ralph the big hoser two days after the weekend storm is rock solid consistent on all guidance 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18 minutes ago, RedSky said: Euro, Ukie and Icon north. GFS crashed at times square with too many layers of rum way south. split the difference, but you forgot the Canadian. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 35 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Classic NW of I-95 storm on the Euro. More like Lehigh Valley N/W. Just N/W of Philly would do better than Philly but Berks and such would do much much better. I always account for a 30-50miles N/W shift....still early though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 23 minutes ago, RedSky said: Hey Ralph the big hoser two days after the weekend storm is rock solid consistent on all guidance Perfect. Sacrificial Lamb for mid month forward. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 30 minutes ago, RedSky said: Euro, Ukie and Icon north. GFS crashed at times square with too many layers of rum way south. Nogaps is a Rainer. JmA is a HECS. Pick your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Snow time on the ECM starts at dark on Saturday, ends a little before dawn. Let's hope it doesn't delay any further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Posted on Dec 27 for those who are dejected and wishing to cancel winter based on the latest model runs do not fret ---- I am an historical meteorologist . You may ask what the hell is that? I rely on my personal weather pattern experiences over the last 50 years since I have been old enough to enjoy the knowledge of weather since I was 12 years old. I learned much weather from uncle who was the regional head forecasting meteorologist for NOAA (NWS) in the western US. I also was an air traffic controller in the Navy and graduated with a BS physical geography degree with a concentration in atmospheric science(Before many meteorological schools were even around). I do not rely solely LR daily model runs until the storms are within 48-72 hours period. Anything else is simply conjecture. I only rely on LR models to help establish the future temp/precip ranges and the possibilities of changes in the long term weather patterns. That is it. I was using my personal experiences and senses in the early 70's to 80's when there were no daily 8 hour model runs and the only models were spit out in a past weekly bulletin on the weeks previous storm events. I spent more time analyzing the storm patterns such as neutral, el nino and la nina patterns instead of relying just on LR computer model ensembles. Weather has been boiled down to a simple game of statistical chances by using computer model ensembles. Right or wrong, I side with past history Right now I see nothing but cold polar air bottled up in northern Canada with pacific cold fronts flowing zonally across the country Alberta Canada is where we get our cold air from except for an occasional backdoor cold front. There is nada coming from either direction right now. The southern jet stream is buckling but the northern stream will not come down into mid USA period to phase and deepen the lows. Until we get an LP over Alberta forming a clipper bringing that locked up polar air in Canada to the central US and introducing a potential pattern change, there is nothing we can do but watch models kick the potential 3-6 in snow events further into the 10-15 day time frame. WE must have sustainable cold- WE HAVE NONE. The potential of a 2-4 or 3-6 in snow event keeps showing up during the Jan 9-11 time frame but that is all it is. When I see it show up on the NAM at 36 hours- thats doable IMHO. My past personal history for those who believe in what I do, compares this year to 1993 where we had a crappy el nino winter 2-4 inches of snow until late February where we did get some accumulating snow event followed by the March superstorm which was a triple phaser. The el nino years below in a sample ranking chart . Please note 1958 has been thrown in the rankings for your forum too in February. (Morgantown blizzard) The winters are definitely back loaded for heavy snow sure in these years with some cold. It is just that we usually get cold sustainable cold in neutral years from the passage of continuous clippers as the el nino pattern is dying-- last gasp storm event before going into a neutral year. Remember how the severe cold in early 1994 set in that was attributable from weakening neutral year with the combination of MT Pinatubo eruption? We have not had a neutral winter in a long time. 3+ years. Lets see what the second to third week of January can throw at us? Yes once this event is in Wednesday evening's run on the NAM, I will be on board. The fire hose scenario afterwards would be be terrible as far as basement flooding and local stream flooding. We need no more rain period for two weeks. Cetronia Rd near my house is still under water after 4 days and there is no creek within 1.5 of this area that is flooded. Natural closed depressions in the farm fields are abundantly full of standing water. That is why you see so much geese flying north. They love standing water in corn/soybean fields in Karst geology areas that are not frozen. Give the freezing temps now please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 41 minutes ago, RedSky said: Snow time on the ECM starts at dark on Saturday, ends a little before dawn. Let's hope it doesn't delay any further. Will you be asleep tho? That is the question keeping many in this subforum on the edge of their seats. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 A widespread 6-12” is what this whole place needs . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 That would be the most classic 6-12in widespread snowstorm for the area like ever. We haven’t had one of those in ages. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dude not yet the MOG storm is reserved for HECS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 26 minutes ago, RedSky said: Dude not yet the MOG storm is reserved for HECS When we havent seen a storm with these totals thrown around in 8 years, it is warranted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 for shitz and giggle Old Henry Margusity is throwing out this snow map. C'mon man, the storm has not even shown up on the NAM models yet 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, Albedoman said: for shitz and giggle Old Henry Margusity is throwing out this snow map. C'mon man, the storm has not even shown up on the NAM models yet 4-12" LOL quite a spread! I see he still likes Penn State! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 59 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: 4-12" LOL quite a spread! I see he still likes Penn State! Not that I wasn't already skeptical, the 4-12" clinched it. May as well predicted 4-18"... Cloudy/37F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: 4-12" LOL quite a spread! I see he still likes Penn State! T-4” LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GFS/ICON still like the Philly area. CMC looks lost with a wildly strung out low that still brings a mix to the Poconos…makes no sense. UKMET and Euro next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Still looking pretty good for us. Bipolar MA subforum still being, well bipolar. Outside/inside Christmas lights continue to stay on till it snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Philly N&W burbs get smacked on the GFS I95er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Timing on the GFS about the same start time but a bit more drawn out ending near noon Sunday. Almost like it wants to snow the best in the early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Ukie is a track over Philly you don't want that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Ukie is a track over Philly you don't want that Mix line gets up to Scranton. Not ideal. Really hope the Euro holds tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Mix line gets up to Scranton. Not ideal. Really hope the Euro holds tonight. 5 days out wild card outcomes coming up now in this run for some of these models. Model chaos going ballistic as the minimal PAC buoy info is now being fed into the models which is creating topsy turvy models expectations. . Will correct itself by Thursday morning. Cross your fingers and stay calm as even the Euro is known to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Albedoman said: 5 days out wild card outcomes coming up now in this run for some of these models. Model chaos going ballistic as the minimal PAC buoy info is now being fed into the models which is creating topsy turvy models expectations. . Will correct itself by Thursday morning. Cross your fingers and stay calm as even the Euro is known to do this. I’d like to see it a little more suppressed right now but it is finally something to track. Would be hard to have another winter as bad as last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Oh man…tonight’s Euro is beautiful! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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