zenmsav6810 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Its so strange... the GFS is acting like the Lucy of Lore (a.k.a the old Euro) on the Jan 7 - 10th period. What does the 2014 Weenie handbook say? ...I think we will be looking at soundings in a few days to get a guage on the precip type for the final forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 CMC has light snow Jan 4...then all eyes peek to Jan 7. GFS is a nice secs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 CMC also a secs for Jan 7 now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC also a secs for Jan 7 now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 0z GFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 0z GFS:Cue up the 10:1 and post on Facebook !. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 0z GFS:This will pump his views up!!! Get it on there!!. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Cue up the 10:1 and post on Facebook ! . Not my cup of tea...I'll leave that for the weekend warriors 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Not my cup of tea...I'll leave that for the weekend warriorsYeah, he’s in here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, anthonyweather said: Yeah, he’s in here . Who? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Very happy to keep an eye on something for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Who? Frosty?? --Is that you!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Next weekend’s storm threat looks pretty good. I’m much more concerned about suppression than rain and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see lots more flip-flopping on the models. Hopefully it works out and gives all of us a decent snowstorm. The mid-week threat isn’t very promising. I think some areas could get an inch or so from the northern stream disturbance but a bigger coastal storm seems pretty unlikely. New England is still in the game, although not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Dr No does it's thing again some things never change 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Made it up to 44 yesterday after a low of 41 and the air really dried out as the dp tanked down into the 20s yesterday afternoon after a week of moist. Currently 38 with dp 30. 0z 3k Euro for the possible threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 6z GFS (also tending to keep it inland and/or along the coast). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Happy New Year's Eve Day to all!! It should be a mostly cloudy seasonably chilly final day of 2023. We could ring in the New Year overnight and toward morning with a few light snow showers. Any very small accumulation amounts would be in areas over 700 ft ASL. A cooling trend looks to take place as we move through the week with the next chance of any snow or rain showers toward Thursday. A larger potential event may impact the area next weekend. Records for today: High 64 (1965) / Low minus 5 (1917) / Rain 1.68" (1906) / Snow 5.0" (1970) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 8 hours ago, RedSky said: Dr No does it's thing again some things never change Just having Dr No back making rounds is an improvement over last year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 GFS joins the Euro. Looks decent for the Lehigh Valley northward but if you’re south of the turnpike it’s more rain than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I'll take the CMC for $1000 please Alex 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 We have support all around that there will be a storm next weekend. Now we get to hone the track this week. My gut says a N and W of I95 event, but we'll see. Nice to see a cluster of guidance well to the South still and only a.small clustering too far N and W/warm. Ens like the classic i95 setup as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I suspect we will see a big pick up in followers on FB this week? Below is my latest. "Of course just 6 hours later some big changes on the models. The Canadian now depicts plenty of model snow for the area (NOT A FORECAST)....while the GFS now shows a quick change from snow to rain with little accumulation (NOT A FORECAST). This is why it is critical to take any individual model run with a grain of salt. A professional forecaster will only incorporate these into a forecast when we begin to see both consistency between model runs and model suites. The main message here is there is growing potential for some sort of storm along the east coast next weekend. An early professional forecast from the NWS is still at least 4 or 5 days away. Notice that the difference between the earlier GFS and this run is only about 50 miles in track of the storm - but that would have big implications on type of precipitation across our area." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 In looking at the GFS vs the Canadian - the GFS has more of a Miller B set up with a center jump to the coast while the Canadian has a classic Miller A but a very similar track to the GFS following the center jump... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, LVblizzard said: GFS joins the Euro. Looks decent for the Lehigh Valley northward but if you’re south of the turnpike it’s more rain than snow. On the news this morning, they showed water temps off AC at 47F. Yes, we have some challenges down this way. But too early to worry about details this far out, let's get this inside 72 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 41 minutes ago, JTA66 said: On the news this morning, they showed water temps off AC at 47F. Yes, we have some challenges down this way. But too early to worry about details this far out, let's get this inside 72 hours. With the right track I have seen it snow with water temps in the low 50's..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 51 minutes ago, JTA66 said: On the news this morning, they showed water temps off AC at 47F. Yes, we have some challenges down this way. But too early to worry about details this far out, let's get this inside 72 hours. That's about right. Little too warm for my liking. Overcast/41F https://seatemperature.info/new-jersey-water-temperature.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Cheer up Eagles fans, happy hour delivered again. Nothing better than being in the bullseye a week out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Meh that wasn't a good happy hour run that would be a mixed bag in SEPA with probably 2-5" of snow cone crunch in the end. But the first wave day 4 is going to play havoc with guidance for days to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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