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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion


The Iceman
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26 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

One came out of the siding when I was putting up the Christmas lights today, nearly fell off the ladder. Was not expecting it at all with the multiple freezes we’ve had. 

Yeah me thinks they built a mega nest somewhere under the siding been a constant presence since June

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23 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

 

It's nice out, a bit foggy, we were splitting some wood, now testing the results lol.

20231202_213110.thumb.jpg.0591e8ad84a613ccbf2a32534208bbc3.jpg

Fire looks good, the background tree needs some snow. :santa:

I'm going to be the idiot outside tomorrow morning in the rain finishing up the lights, clean up inside, shower, recliner and the Birds. No shot in hell I'm going out shopping for food or anything, I'm set. Did that today and it was a 3-4 hour mess...  

48F/DP 47F/Fog

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Fire looks good, the background tree needs some snow. :santa:

I'm going to be the idiot outside tomorrow morning in the rain finishing up the lights, clean up inside, shower, recliner and the Birds. No shot in hell I'm going out shopping for food or anything, I'm set. Did that today and it was a 3-4 hour mess...  

48F/DP 47F/Fog

Agreed! Just finished splitting the rest of today's wood, and now it's starting to rain. A little early. Looking forward to being out here and having snow move in - last time was Sat. evening on Feb. 12, 2022. It had been in the 50s during the day and started as rain snow mix around 11 pm, and an hour later we had the beginning of a coating on the ground. Wound up with about 3". Had a nice snow moon a couple of days later.

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Some rain totals across the county since midnight - Glenmoore 0.89" / East Nantmeal Twp, 0.53" / Atglen 0.43" / Warwick Twp. 0.48" / West Brandywine Twp. 0.41"
Most of the steady rain. Cloudy day with temperatures only rising a couple degrees from the near 50 degrees we are currently at across much of the area. We should have temps near normal for much of the week before rising a bit above normal by next weekend before colder again for next week. There is a slight chance of some snow flurries on Tuesday night but otherwise a mainly dry week.
Records for today: High 69 (1998) / Low 9 (1976) / Rain 1.12" (1905) / Snow 5.2" (1907)
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Since we are starting the first winter month I thought I would give you my annual attempt at a winter forecast for Chester County PA. Take this for what it is worth as the last 3 years I have done this have been totally and completely wrong! I will show you my methodology for the forecast below. You will see below that the fall season (September thru November) here in Chester County has overall since the 1890's shown a clear cooling pattern...however, during our current warming cycle since 1970 we have seen a clear warming pattern. Overall this Fall has averaged 54.9 degrees which is the 50th warmest Fall since 1894. I decided to use the surrounding 20 fall seasons using from the 30th warmest to the 70th warmest fall average temperatures. I compared those to the upcoming winter and came up with the following forecast base on our fall temperatures this year.
Average Temperature will be 32.1 degrees this is 0.9 degrees below our 30 year average. Total snowfall will be between 28" to 37" our 30 year average is 36.3" in the county. I put a range here as the ranges for the analog years I used go from the 86.6" of snow we received in 2009-10 to as little as the 2.7" from just last year. For your coffee table conversation the annual average snowfall for Chicago IL is only a couple inches more than Chesco at 38"....who knew Chesco was almost as snowy as Chicago?
So there it is! What do you think? How wrong will I be this year? Enjoy!
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 If many of the posters are like me, we are all sick and tired of looking at model runs that indicate snow at one run and 12 hrs later zilch. The only model run worth looking at this time is the NAM/ HRR at 36 hours. I am also so sick of seeing daily forecasts bust in the past several months for sky conditions as well. P Sunny does not mean 98% cloudy. So many wasted days under cloudy skies the last four months that were supposed to be mostly sunny.  Its like we live in the far west as high cirrus/altostratus  clouds covering the entire sky with a milky appearance is rare for us but has happen a dozen times  in the past month. It does bring nice sunset colors though.

 

I am ready for a good old fashion Miller A storm. The GOM has been shut down for so long as we could not even get a decent  tropical storm  this year up in our area. I am telling you this, as the old timer of the forum,  this current weather pattern has all of the appearances of another type of Superstorm of 93 forming.  It was dead city around here until that storm formed in the northern GOM near the panhandle of Fla.  I believe another storm will form in the same area this winter and present the same issues. Not quite as stong but the pattern is leaning in that direction. 

 

Just hoping for some snow before Christmas. The Dec 18-21 time period looks promising but the event keeps being kicked down the road.  I am hoping or least a few clippers this year too to keep the topping fresh

 

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Albedoman said:

I am telling you this, as the old timer of the forum,  this current weather pattern has all of the appearances of another type of Superstorm of 93 forming.  It was dead city around here until that storm formed in the northern GOM near the panhandle of Fla.  I believe another storm will form in the same area this winter and present the same issues. Not quite as stong but the pattern is leaning in that direction.

I think there are at least 4 over-60s posting regularly here so join the club! :lol:

At this point due to the persistent temp rises in the oceans, the past analog years are going to be more and more "out of date" to use for predicting the current/future environment.  If anything, you'd probably do better to shift the seasons by a couple months where "winter" is fall-like and "spring" is winter-like (we have been walloped in March for example - ocean temps slowly coming off mins and plenty of moisture).

Since you mention 1993, so far to date, the last time KPHL went below 0F was in 1994.

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Just hoping for some snow before Christmas. The Dec 18-21 time period looks promising but the event keeps being kicked down the road.  I am hoping or least a few clippers this year too to keep the topping fresh

We had a dusting of snow down here on 11/28. :P

As some catch-up OBS, Sun/Mon. highs were both 51 with a Monday low of 37, and a low this morning of 33.  It's currently a partly sunny 39 through a deck of cirrus, with a dp of 34.

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33 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Hoping the power does not go out Sunday night during the Ealges game. 

 

Storm around the 17-18th looks... interesting on the LR. 

It does look like a window of opportunity. One trend I've noticed this past month....when guidance has shown a coastal low at range it has generally morphed into a fropa or developed well offshore as verification. So we need to watch that to see if this also moves that direction. Saw this alot past few seasons. Could be the lag of the Nina pattern still moving into Nino looks which hopefully start to show up more as we head into late December onward. Still think we need to be patient...Nino December's aren't usually known for cold and prolific snows.

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41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Flurries in Ivyland. 31F

My sis in Upper Darby texted that she is getting some down there.  I see it on radar although haven't seen any reach the ground here yet (unless I missed an earlier round).

Made it up to 44 yesterday and so far bottomed out at 36 this morning.  Currently overcast and 37 with dp 30.

 

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A few snow flurries are flying this AM across spots of the county. Mostly cloudy the rest of today with maybe some more snow showers tomorrow AM. Temperatures both today and Thursday will struggle to escape the 30's. We start warming by Friday with above normal temps through the weekend with rain likely by Sunday before a return to colder again by next week.
Records for today: High 73 (1998) / Low 8 (1902) / Rain 1.47" (2013) / Snow 6.7" (1910)
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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It does look like a window of opportunity. One trend I've noticed this past month....when guidance has shown a coastal low at range it has generally morphed into a fropa or developed well offshore as verification. So we need to watch that to see if this also moves that direction. Saw this alot past few seasons. Could be the lag of the Nina pattern still moving into Nino looks which hopefully start to show up more as we head into late December onward. Still think we need to be patient...Nino December's aren't usually known for cold and prolific snows.

exactly what the 12z GFS just flipped to in that range :lol:  

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