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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion


The Iceman
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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That says it all right there. Dec 30 and this is where we are. 

So lemme get this right...Ninas are shut the blinds, la nada is a sleeper, and Ninos just suck? 

Steve....I think you got it!!! I still believe we surpass last winter's snow total!!!! I am predicting an almost 100% increase in amounts!!!

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17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That says it all right there. Dec 30 and this is where we are

So lemme get this right...Ninas are shut the blinds, la nada is a sleeper, and Ninos just suck? 

I think having your house windows open/screen, front screen door open and going shopping in a flannel only in late Dec is a problem. (yesterday)

Gimmie a late night 1-3" clipper w/winds and I'll be happy...

37F/Cloudy

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3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I think having your house windows open/screen, front screen door open and going shopping in a flannel only in late Dec is a problem. (yesterday)

Gimmie a late night 1-3" clipper w/winds and I'll be happy...

37F/Cloudy

Well, I think most of us were hopeful for something more sustained after seeing the optimistic weeklies last month for Jan and Feb. But this is looking more like a typical Nino....cold start with chance for something early...overall warmish, a mild period in January, and one decent sized frozen event somewhere during prime climo (late Jan-middle/late Feb). 

Beggars can't be choosers. And yeah lol I do agree with @ChescoWx we will surpass last year's totals at some point.

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6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Well,I don't doubt your experience based on past climate. However, this is a very different beast we are dealing with and the Pacific is simply going against all historical data and manhandling the overall N Hem pattern. Nino can't even act like a Nino anymore. It is downrght alarming to be perfectly honest. I haven't given up completely. Like I said, I still expect a late season hit as is what we are growing used to these days.

 

Well, I feel sometimes my opinions are being ignored, but this is our new normal with the Warm Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Ocean, and Great Lakes and many other warm bodies of water are in complete control of our weather patterns.  We can hope for a window of 2-4 weeks in February when the bodies of water hopefully cool down.  We are also heading for Lake Effect snow season in February and March too. Things without doubt have certainly changed since the 70's, 80's, 90's, and past 23 years. Our snowstorm chances are like trying to track a hurricane strike in the summer along the East Coast.

How about that 60-foot rouge wave out in California?  I have not read up on that closely.  What caused that?  Waves out there on average 20-40 feet pretty cool but no doubt simply tied to the raging Pacific Ocean. 

Let's hope for snow!  Back to my remembering the Blizzard of 1983.  I am currently walking down my street in Northeast Philadelphia just surpassed 16" still coming down 2" an hour now we have graupel and lightning cool!!

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That says it all right there. Dec 30 and this is where we are. 

So lemme get this right...Ninas are shut the blinds, la nada is a sleeper, and Ninos just suck? 

 

8 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Well, I feel sometimes my opinions are being ignored, but this is our new normal with the Warm Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Ocean, and Great Lakes and many other warm bodies of water are in complete control of our weather patterns.  We can hope for a window of 2-4 weeks in February when the bodies of water hopefully cool down.  We are also heading for Lake Effect snow season in February and March too. Things without doubt have certainly changed since the 70's, 80's, 90's, and past 23 years. Our snowstorm chances are like trying to track a hurricane strike in the summer along the East Coast.

How about that 60-foot rouge wave out in California?  I have not read up on that closely.  What caused that?  Waves out there on average 20-40 feet pretty cool but no doubt simply tied to the raging Pacific Ocean. 

Let's hope for snow back to my remembering the Blizzard of 1983.  I am currently walking down my street in Northeast Philadelphia just surpassed 16" still coming down 2" an hour now we have graupel and lightning cool!!

I know we just posted about this earlier in the week - but I was in NE Philly growing up also at that time. We had been in such an incredible snow drought back in the 1970's. My first snowstorm over 6" that I could remember was not until January 1978 - Philly went from 1967 till 1978 without such a storm! If the next cycle of our climate brings back those no snow years....kids today who think where we live snowstorms are common will be jumping off The Tacony Palmyra Bridge!!!

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29 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Who did it? Who on February 4, 2018 said, “Let the Eagles win tonight and I’ll give up snow for 10 years.”?

Bro, great memory. That would be @The Iceman iirc. 

We need some reverse juju. We need to pull out all the stops here.

Past few years I've put my winter jawn up in the house when the Christmas decor comes down. Maybe this year no snowmen figurines, no snow globes, no winter garden flag....pack the snowblower away. Heck, I am willing to sacrifice this new sled to the firepit tonight after a big Penn State win!! I will just tell the kids it got lost in transit. If we can get accumulating 6"+ snowfall this year, I'm willing to keep the Flyers and Sixers championship drought going for another 5 years. 

Whatever the heck it takes!

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15 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

 

I know we just posted about this earlier in the week - but I was in NE Philly growing up also at that time. We had been in such an incredible snow drought back in the 1970's. My first snowstorm over 6" that I could remember was not until January 1978 - Philly went from 1967 till 1978 without such a storm! If the next cycle of our climate brings back those no snow years....kids today who think where we live snowstorms are common will be jumping off The Tacony Palmyra Bridge!!!

Let's see what we can do but at day 700 with less than 1" of snowfall we are getting there.  I cannot ignore the cyclic nature of this though.  It most likely will change and around here and it often changes abruptly when most have given up (this guy).  I do think interesting times are ahead!

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30 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

The GFS actually got me slightly excited for a second for the 7th for the storm to get pushed dead right out to sea instead of turning completely up the coast 

My non-professional, uninformed opinion is if it turned the coast, it would probably be a rainer. As advertised on the GFS, a system scooting along south of us could work.

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2 hours ago, Duca892 said:

The GFS actually got me slightly excited for a second for the 7th for the storm to get pushed dead right out to sea instead of turning completely up the coast 

We dont want it cranking and coming due N. Let it reach a slightly higher lat before sliding east and we cash-in. Potential looks decent. 50/50 in place, ok HP, strong s/w but not phasing inland. This could work for us. 

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3 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Who did it? Who on February 4, 2018 said, “Let the Eagles win tonight and I’ll give up snow for 10 years.”?

Speaking of football, hate to say it but you have to root for Dallas tonight vs Detroit if the Birds have any shot at the #1 seed/bye. 

This is great, rooting for Dallas and no snow under our belt...holidays to remember.

43F/Oh yeah, cloudy

Birds.jpg

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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Bro, great memory. That would be @The Iceman iirc. 

We need some reverse juju. We need to pull out all the stops here.

Past few years I've put my winter jawn up in the house when the Christmas decor comes down. Maybe this year no snowmen figurines, no snow globes, no winter garden flag....pack the snowblower away. Heck, I am willing to sacrifice this new sled to the firepit tonight after a big Penn State win!! I will just tell the kids it got lost in transit. If we can get accumulating 6"+ snowfall this year, I'm willing to keep the Flyers and Sixers championship drought going for another 5 years. 

Whatever the heck it takes!

 

river.jpg

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Speaking of football, hate to say it but you have to root for Dallas tonight vs Detroit if the Birds have any shot at the #1 seed/bye. 

This is great, rooting for Dallas and no snow under our belt...holidays to remember.

43F/Oh yeah, cloudy

Birds.jpg

I think the best I’ll be able to do is hope the Lions don’t win.

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2 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Speaking of football, hate to say it but you have to root for Dallas tonight vs Detroit if the Birds have any shot at the #1 seed/bye. 

This is great, rooting for Dallas and no snow under our belt...holidays to remember.

43F/Oh yeah, cloudy

Birds.jpg

They will tank on purpose 

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6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

A new sled for my kids just arrived! That is either the kiss of death or the wakeup call to the snow gods.

Ralph it is a wakeup call to Winter!!!  It's coming!!!  Get Ready!!  Also, I saw my 7th flock of geese today flying due south!  They know!!!  Now with my rant earlier about warm ocean temperatures I suppose it is one of the necessary ingredients for our 20" snowstorms.  I have a gut feeling we see one of these Biggies that gives us 20" just a gut even if it is only one of them.

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5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Ralph it is a wakeup call to Winter!!!  It's coming!!!  Get Ready!!  Also, I saw my 7th flock of geese today flying due south!  They know!!!  Now with my rant earlier about warm ocean temperatures I suppose it is one of the necessary ingredients for our 20" snowstorms.  I have a gut feeling we see one of these Biggies that gives us 20" just a gut even if it is only one of them.

Odd you say that. I've heard several flocks quacking overhead the past several days. Many late at night/overnight...thought I was dreaming.

Clouds still here/43F

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1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

I always learn a lot from this forum just in the shadows. Seems we may have a legit threat to follow. Storm again and better on the 18z GFS

Yea huge improvements on the 18z GFS see if it holds going 0z and forward.  Also has a monster storm on January 10th.  I would say we have two threats one on the 7th and the 10th.  The one on the 10th looks like the NAO is going from negative to positive both of these have my attention!!  Let's watch!!  The Geese know!!  (I think that's going to be my snow call phrase, "The Geese know!!"

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