Birds~69 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 This entire week looks to be one cloudy, w/rain above average temps mess... Cloudy/45F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 5 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: If you ask me these two maps scream a few things: 1. We are in the warm phase of El Nino. It's December 24th and those humidity charts are off the charts where is the cold dry air???? 2. It's going to be very difficult to move this moisture laden atmosphere out to establish cold air that is sustained. 3. The warming is well undeniable. I could see if it were July or August and we were looking at this humidity map, but even where it is cold it is humid?? 4. With that said warmer air holds more water and if it were to snow, I am sure it would be a 1-2 foot plus snowstorm. 5. These are our new normal I am afraid. 6. Any flow whatsoever off of a body of water Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic, and now even the Great Lakes warms various levels of the atmosphere especially lower and mid-levels, and this is another obstacle of snow in this new era. We definitely would need a pattern progression eastward to even sniff a chance. 1. Cold air is in Northern Canada- locked uped for a while 2. Only a deep Alberta clipper will move out eh warm humid air now. When it comes is anyone's guess. When does come, watch out for major EC snowstorm following the passage 3. I agree. Thats why the upper midwest is baking right now 4. see statement two answer- a HECS event coming if the clipper hits us first 5. This our normal until the third week in January- thats when the pacific tuna fish can lid will be opened and the pac air goes bye bye to the far south - back into the GOM. Some say I am dead wrong- let the old timer prove them wrong. You can keep looking at those ensembles and analyze until the cows come home but the pattern will not change until we get a decent clipper passing over us period. From the historical weather forecaster we are a raity in this AI technology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry Christmas everyone! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry Christmas to all! Chesco area roundups from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 clear change to colder moving into 2024... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry Christmas!! Today looks to be the last dry day for a couple days. Steadiest rain looks to develop from west to east across the County on Tuesday evening. A good chance at 0.5 to 1" of rain before ending late Wednesday night. Temp well into the 40's to near 50 through Thursday before a change to colder by Friday. Records for Christmas Day: High 67 (1964) / Low minus 6 (1980) / Rain 1.93" (2002) / Snow 13.0" (1909) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 15 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: clear change to colder moving into 2024... Mid 30s+ will not cut it...maybe some slop but no real daytime (traditional) accumulating snow in the near future according to that graph. Sun trying to break trhrough/45F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry Christmas everyone! Santa did not give us the snow, but alas. According to everyone, the key is patience! I am willing to hold off till February 15th, then I am writing it off. lol Hope everyone has a great day today! Go Birds! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Sun peaking out, temps approaching 50F (currently 48F). A typical Christmas Day weather wise in SE PA. Merry Christmas, everyone!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 32 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Mid 30s+ will not cut it...maybe some slop but no real daytime (traditional) accumulating snow in the near future according to that graph. Sun trying to break trhrough/45F Those temps are plenty cold enough with a good track....I have seen much warmer ENS then those that have produced.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Those temps are plenty cold enough with a good track....I have seen much warmer ENS then those that have produced.... I don't count grass only. 35-40 daytime would be slushy crap/wet on paved surfaces... 47F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 12Z says Mery Christmas. Least there's finally something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 SJ Shore Special....lock it up only 384 hours to go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry Christmas! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said: 12Z says Mery Christmas. Least there's finally something to keep an eye on. There are still 3 legit threats popping up first 10 days of January. Dont tell Albedoman...he already punted thru the 22nd. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry bug Christmas just zapped a yellow jacket outside the door on the deck, and 30 seconds later a fly. Nearly bit by a mosquito a half hour earlier near my car. So that is what ba hum bug means I had no idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: There are still 3 legit threats popping up first 10 days of January. Dont tell Albedoman...he already punted thru the 22nd. I'm not normally one to name storms outside of Hurricane protocol but in the Christmas spirit I think we should name these threats after the Three Kings... Caspar, Melchior, and Balthasar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Maybe pea soup later tonight/overnight. I'll take anything... Cloudy/47F ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog. * WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 I would love to be wrong but even a legit threat has no staying power. It will be gone in afew days. We have to have highs stay below the mid 20,s with no sun. No polar air anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Pea soup fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 wow, the record for rainfall in December for ABE is 7.89 inches in 1973. We should break the record by the end of the week. In Macungie I have had over 7.5 inches thus far this month with 2 to 3 inches expected by the end of the week. No drought here, thats for sure. The nasty part is that the groundwater table will be much higher than usual as the precip has been able to infiltrate into the ground with the ground remaining unfrozen. 1. Any runoff after one inch will be 100% runoff as the ground cannot take much more. Localized flooding will be a HUGE concern, especially in low spots such as closed depressions in our Karst geological areas with many ghost lakes appearing in farm fields and over roads 2. Sinkholes will be opening up everywhere. Here is one near my house in the Macungie area next to the road last week below from the the four plus inch rainfall event. The eye of the sinkhole went under the road 3. Flat road areas will pond water easily and freeze over. 4. Winter Springs will be popping up everywhere, leading to heavy ice accumulations on roads where underdrains are not located. Be careful. Literally dump truck loads of salt will be poured in these areas where the springs come up even in the middle of the roads as water will be flowing for weeks. One particular bad spot RT 63 in near Rt 563 near the ridge top will be bad with numerous potholes forming in the shale geology 5. Basements will have some major water issues thats for sure with sump pumps running full time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 16 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: There are still 3 legit threats popping up first 10 days of January. Dont tell Albedoman...he already punted thru the 22nd. Yes I have punted until about third week in January for a major snow event of 6+ inches for our area . The event on Jan 9-12 looks legitimate at this time if there is enough cold air in place over our area from a typical pacific cold frontal passage in place (ana frontal snow?) after a couple of days with an LP forming on the dragging cold front near the carolinas and is definitely not an alberta clipper that I was talking about. Any snow that accumulates will only be on the ground for a few days anyway but this could be a considered a legitimate snow event threat based based on the lack of snowfall in the last two years. We could see more snow from this single event than we got all last year so yes, I agree Ralph this potential snowfall event is is a threat no matter how little the accumulations are. 2-4 inches at the best as my first call if the event occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 8 hours ago, RedSky said: Pea soup fog Fog, low clouds, mist, junk and stuff out there, looks very festive. Tomorrow looks to be outstanding... 42F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and with the warm theme, I made it up to 50 on Christmas Eve and 51 on Christmas Day after respective lows of 38 & 39. I have so far had 7.75" of rain for the month of December, definitely making up for the October deficit after a November that made the attempt to do that. Expecting more this week to boot. Am currently at my low this morning of 43 with dp 43 and overcast skies. Haven't really had any fog here as a breeze had kicked up overnight, but there is some low stratus around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 2 hours ago, Albedoman said: Yes I have punted until about third week in January for a major snow event of 6+ inches for our area . The event on Jan 9-12 looks legitimate at this time if there is enough cold air in place over our area from a typical pacific cold frontal passage in place (ana frontal snow?) after a couple of days with an LP forming on the dragging cold front near the carolinas and is definitely not an alberta clipper that I was talking about. Any snow that accumulates will only be on the ground for a few days anyway but this could be a considered a legitimate snow event threat based based on the lack of snowfall in the last two years. We could see more snow from this single event than we got all last year so yes, I agree Ralph this potential snowfall event is is a threat no matter how little the accumulations are. 2-4 inches at the best as my first call if the event occurs. I do say, the catalyst behind any of these legit threats seem to be a ns system (clipper?) That drags the boundary under our area. So you are o to something in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 A foggy AM across the area followed by a pretty gloomy week ahead before sun finally returns by the final weekend of 2023. Rain chances increase toward morning tomorrow with another good soaker on the way. We should see between 1.5" and 2.0" of rain. Very mild weather continues with our temperatures remaining above freezing till the weekend. Records for today: High 67 (1964) / Low -2 (1980) / Rain 2.50" (1909) / Snow 25.0" (1909). That was the 2nd day of the 1909 Blizzard that began at 8am on Christmas Morning and lasted till 6:30am on the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 A couple years back someone in here posted a stat that was a real eye-opener. Something along the lines of the 70s had one 1 snowfall in Philly over 8" or the 80s there were only 3 total wi ter storm warnings in Philly. Please dont quote me on those, but it was something really absurd along those lines. Does anyone happen to recall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: A couple years back someone in here posted a stat that was a real eye-opener. Something along the lines of the 70s had one 1 snowfall in Philly over 8" or the 80s there were only 3 total wi ter storm warnings in Philly. Please dont quote me on those, but it was something really absurd along those lines. Does anyone happen to recall? Sounds about right. The difference between now and those years however is it was a colder world then and we are not seeing the 1-3" events that remind you it's winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Low stream levels to sinkholes aye caramba! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: A couple years back someone in here posted a stat that was a real eye-opener. Something along the lines of the 70s had one 1 snowfall in Philly over 8" or the 80s there were only 3 total wi ter storm warnings in Philly. Please dont quote me on those, but it was something really absurd along those lines. Does anyone happen to recall? Steve I think that was me pointing out there were no 6" or greater snowstorms in Philly from February 7, 1967 until January 20, 1978. Those were the day's we never got snow and that period was one of the least snowy decades in our history. It was a little better in the Philly burbs of Chesco....where we had 7 storms during those 12 years that exceeded 6". The biggest near miss was February 19, 1972 when Philly changed to rain after only 3.7" while Coatesville stayed snow and accumulated 13.8" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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