Albedoman Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 The hopium level s rising in every model run by posters. My first BS call several weeks ago Jan 22 time frame still looks promising at the rate things are panning out. And that is still wish washy. The kick the can syndrome is sickening on these model runs. One big hit on 15 days and then subsequent runs push it off after one run. Absolutley no sustainable pattern change evident. Looking at these BS ensembles is like staring in a mirror long enough until you see a whisker hair grow same chances LMAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 33deg. and cloudy it sure feels and looks like it should be snowing. Cmon old man winter show us what ya got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Our high so far today has only been 31.0 at midnight. This will be our first subfreezing day since last February 25th and the earliest first subfreezing day of the winter season since December 16, 2020 when the high was 28.2 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Damn, happy hour delivered! Enjoy the next six hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 its one thing not having snow but it is another not seeing one sunny day in over a week this winter. This is the ultimate crappy Christmas week. How can you be happy when it is not even below freezing at night in the next 7 days but in the low 40's during the day and cloudy or 50's and raining? You cannot even enjoy a walk. God , please make this shitty weather pattern go away for my Christmas present. Cloudy, with a low around 28. East wind around 5 mph. Saturday Cloudy, with a high near 44. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Saturday Night A slight chance of light rain after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 35. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday A slight chance of light rain before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 47. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Christmas Day Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Monday Night Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Tuesday Rain likely, mainly after 1pm. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Rain likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Thursday A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 27 minutes ago, Albedoman said: its one thing not having snow but it is another not seeing one sunny day in over a week this winter. This is the ultimate crappy Christmas week. How can you be happy when it is not even below freezing at night in the next 7 days but in the low 40's during the day and cloudy or 50's and raining? You cannot even enjoy a walk. God , please make this shitty weather pattern go away for my Christmas present. Cloudy, with a low around 28. East wind around 5 mph. Saturday Cloudy, with a high near 44. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Saturday Night A slight chance of light rain after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 35. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday A slight chance of light rain before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 47. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Christmas Day Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Monday Night Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Tuesday Rain likely, mainly after 1pm. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Rain likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Thursday A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%. But without the rain the stream levels drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 hours ago, RedSky said: But without the rain the stream levels drop. no one will care after this holiday season believe me. The stream in my backyard is still running high from two weeks of nearly 8 inches of rain. Continuous cloudy days is not good for our utility bills or our mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Well my Wed - Fri lows managed to be at or below freezing (28, 32, 28), but this morning's low of 30 was hit at 2:30 am and the temp has crept up since as the air mass modifies. My highs for that period were 44 & 43 but a lowly 35 as a high yesterday as some clouds managed to roll in, and hang around much of the day. MJO has generally been in a state that has impacted northern Europe and Asia but there are progs to head into Phase I some time in the next couple weeks. Will have to see what verifies. It's currently 34 with dp 23 (which ia a little higher than late yesterday when it was headed into the upper teens as the dry air settled in). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 17 hours ago, Albedoman said: The hopium level s rising in every model run by posters. My first BS call several weeks ago Jan 22 time frame still looks promising at the rate things are panning out. And that is still wish washy. The kick the can syndrome is sickening on these model runs. One big hit on 15 days and then subsequent runs push it off after one run. Absolutley no sustainable pattern change evident. Looking at these BS ensembles is like staring in a mirror long enough until you see a whisker hair grow same chances LMAO 3 distinct threats on the ops and ensembles between Jan 1 and Jan 10 with one of the best model runs I've seen in years and you punted until after MLK day? Cmon old head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 3 distinct threats on the ops and ensembles between Jan 1 and Jan 10 with one of the best model runs I've seen in years and you punted until after MLK day? Cmon old head. threats are all they are. What will change for us to get some legit snowstorms on the models? An Alberta clipper making a run at us even if it is dry followed by an LP forming in the TN valley. The clipper is the key as it will bring us the sustainable cold and keep the northern jet further south in the lower TN Valley for shortwaves to form on it, especially with GOM moisture flowing into the shortwaves. I have yet to see anything of the sort on the LR models. Shortwaves are forming on the northern jet, they are simply moisture starved and the zonal flow is constant across the country. My old time philosophy- when it is below zero and snow covered in wisconsin, watch out baby. Currently it is even raining all the way up to St Paul area with no snow cover in almost the entire state of Wisconsin. That is basically unheard of this time of the year as I lived there for many years. There is simply no cold air in place to keep the snow cover in the upper midwest. Snow cover begets more cold air reaching our area. Without it, we stand little chance of a major snow event. Ensembles mean exactly crap IMHO right now until something significantly breaks in this zonal pattern In the 60's and 70's we did not use computer ensembles especially as gospel, we simply use statistical analysis and still use them somewhat in the days from the weather yearly analogs. Keep relying on your ensembles, I will rely my 40 + years of experience. I cannot wait until an Alberta Clipper reaches the mid Atlantic area- then the LR range and SR range models will light up like a Christmas tree with legit chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 31 minutes ago, Albedoman said: threats are all they are. What will change for us to get some legit snowstorms on the models? An Alberta clipper making a run at us even if it is dry followed by an LP forming in the TN valley. The clipper is the key as it will bring us the sustainable cold and keep the northern jet further south in the lower TN Valley for shortwaves to form on it, especially with GOM moisture flowing into the shortwaves. I have yet to see anything of the sort on the LR models. Shortwaves are forming on the northern jet, they are simply moisture starved and the zonal flow is constant across the country. My old time philosophy- when it is below zero and snow covered in wisconsin, watch out baby. Currently it is even raining all the way up to St Paul area with no snow cover in almost the entire state of Wisconsin. That is basically unheard of this time of the year as I lived there for many years. There is simply no cold air in place to keep the snow cover in the upper midwest. Snow cover begets more cold air reaching our area. Without it, we stand little chance of a major snow event. Ensembles mean exactly crap IMHO right now until something significantly breaks in this zonal pattern In the 60's and 70's we did not use computer ensembles especially as gospel, we simply use statistical analysis and still use them somewhat in the days from the weather yearly analogs. Keep relying on your ensembles, I will rely my 40 + years of experience. I cannot wait until an Alberta Clipper reaches the mid Atlantic area- then the LR range and SR range models will light up like a Christmas tree with legit chances. I'm not doubting your 40+ years of expertise. I'm doubting your methods for punting thru week 3 of January. Not sure how reliable snowcover in Greenbay is in forecasting the LR. Gfs and Euro are each starting to light up with threats btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm not doubting your 40+ years of expertise. I'm doubting your methods for punting thru week 3 of January. Not sure how reliable snowcover in Greenbay is in forecasting the LR. Gfs and Euro are each starting to light up with threats btw. this proves my point too https://www.exploreminnesota.com/event/minnesota-ice-festival-cancelled/26711 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Albedoman said: this proves my point too https://www.exploreminnesota.com/event/minnesota-ice-festival-cancelled/26711 Your punt thru Jan 22 may very well end up being right but for all the wrong reasons...so who knows. There are 3 threats I noted showing up the first 10 days of Jan. Yes, only threats....we need verification to mean a damn thing. Thereafter there are strengthening signals the NAO goes neg which is likely the final ingredient to get thing really cranking for us. Don't sleep on the 1st half of January tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 It doesn’t snow 99.999% of the time. Seems easy to ascribe any correlation one wishes. Happy Festivus all! 36F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Another cloudy but milder day with temps rising to near normal levels for late December. A slight chance of showers overnight tonight otherwise a nice warming trend that will last through Thursday before a return to near normal temps to close out 2023. Next rain chance is Tuesday and Wednesday this week. Records for today: High 65.3 (2015) / Low 0 (1960) / Rain 1.41" (1907) / Snow 6.2" (1963) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Looking ahead it appears likely that this December will finish as the 4th warmest final month of the year since records began in 1894. See the Top 20 warmest and coldest Decembers below. Of note, in our current warm cycle the top 3 warm December's have all occurred just since 2006!! So does a warm December correlate to a less snowy upcoming winter season? The answer is overall yes. Only 4 of the top 20 warmest December's featured above normal snow seasons (avg. snow 36"). While 10 of the top 20 coldest Decembers featured above normal snow for the upcoming season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, ChescoWx said: Looking ahead it appears likely that this December will finish as the 4th warmest final month of the year since records began in 1894. See the Top 20 warmest and coldest Decembers below. Of note, in our current warm cycle the top 3 warm December's have all occurred just since 2006!! So does a warm December correlate to a less snowy upcoming winter season? The answer is overall yes. Only 4 of the top 20 warmest December's featured above normal snow seasons (avg. snow 36"). While 10 of the top 20 coldest Decembers featured above normal snow for the upcoming season. The record books are about to be rewritten so hang on tight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Well, the Jan 1 threat might be too early BUT all ens are honking strong for Jan 5-7. Then a followup threat possible. But that window I noted is starting to gain traction across guidance. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 The Operational GFS continues to hint at a Jan 4-6 storm-- looks to be a classic Miller A. The Wiggum Watch looks good too, balms out Mommoth with 58F a few days before: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 11 hours ago, ChescoWx said: Looking ahead it appears likely that this December will finish as the 4th warmest final month of the year since records began in 1894. See the Top 20 warmest and coldest Decembers below. Of note, in our current warm cycle the top 3 warm December's have all occurred just since 2006!! So does a warm December correlate to a less snowy upcoming winter season? The answer is overall yes. Only 4 of the top 20 warmest December's featured above normal snow seasons (avg. snow 36"). While 10 of the top 20 coldest Decembers featured above normal snow for the upcoming season. Interestingly, It would appear either condition yields at least some snow-- none of them are total shutouts. Also if you removed the normal December snowfall from the season totals for the warmest years on record, you'd likely see that the remaining portion winter was at or above average in most years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 hour ago, zenmsav6810 said: The Operational GFS continues to hint at a Jan 4-6 storm-- looks to be a classic Miller A. The Wiggum Watch looks good too, balms out Mommoth with 58F a few days before: A nice cold rain storm at that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 14 minutes ago, RedSky said: A nice cold rain storm at that You sound like you need a vacation-- are the holidays getting to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 18 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: You sound like you need a vacation-- are the holidays getting to you? December no longer a winter month does suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Serious question how many bona-fide good winter months have there been in the last five years counting this December? February 2021? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Feels and looks just like Christmas Eve... Cloudy/some fog/drizzle/37F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 53 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Feels and looks just like Christmas Eve... Cloudy/some fog/drizzle/37F N’ah, too chilly for Christmas. We’re usually in the upper 50’s. Feels more like Memorial Day weekend at the shore. 38F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 If you ask me these two maps scream a few things: 1. We are in the warm phase of El Nino. It's December 24th and those humidity charts are off the charts where is the cold dry air???? 2. It's going to be very difficult to move this moisture laden atmosphere out to establish cold air that is sustained. 3. The warming is well undeniable. I could see if it were July or August and we were looking at this humidity map, but even where it is cold it is humid?? 4. With that said warmer air holds more water and if it were to snow, I am sure it would be a 1-2 foot plus snowstorm. 5. These are our new normal I am afraid. 6. Any flow whatsoever off of a body of water Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic, and now even the Great Lakes warms various levels of the atmosphere especially lower and mid-levels, and this is another obstacle of snow in this new era. We definitely would need a pattern progression eastward to even sniff a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Merry Christmas Eve to all!! We picked up 0.05" of rain early this AM but with temps well above freezing no issues. Christmas Day looks great for travel with temps well into the 40's across the county and partly sunny skies. No freezing temps at all across the area until at the earliest Friday AM. Rain moves in late on Tuesday evening and lasts into Wednesday night. We then have a change in the pattern to much chillier air which looks to last right into the first part of the New Year. There will also be some opportunities for wintry weather as we head toward the 1st weekend of 2024. Records for Christmas Eve: High 68.5 (2015) / Low 2 below zero (1980) / Rain 1.63" (1986) / Snow 20.0" (1966) which was the snowstorm with frequent thunder and lightning accompanying the heavy snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 12 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Merry Christmas Eve to all!! We picked up 0.05" of rain early this AM but with temps well above freezing no issues. Christmas Day looks great for travel with temps well into the 40's across the county and partly sunny skies. No freezing temps at all across the area until at the earliest Friday AM. Rain moves in late on Tuesday evening and lasts into Wednesday night. We then have a change in the pattern to much chillier air which looks to last right into the first part of the New Year. There will also be some opportunities for wintry weather as we head toward the 1st weekend of 2024. Records for Christmas Eve: High 68.5 (2015) / Low 2 below zero (1980) / Rain 1.63" (1986) / Snow 20.0" (1966) which was the snowstorm with frequent thunder and lightning accompanying the heavy snow. 0.02" of rain in central Delaware County Mostly Cloudy currently a few breaks of snow here and there 48 degrees currently. We will be moving into the lower 50's should we see any sun today and certainly into the 50's tomorrow. The long-range forecast beyond January 1st shows some hope for cold and snow, but the annual push it back pushes it back clearly is at work here remember our days are now getting longer. Enjoy Christmas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Below are the top 15 coldest Christmas Eve and Christmas Day combos since 1894....of note the top 4 have all occurred since 1980. Including the all-time 3rd coldest just last Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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