ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 5 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said: I'll add that I appreciate your optimism however! The do call me Positive Paul....in some circles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 5 hours ago, anthonyweather said: It’s definitely great to see Facebook weather pages showing a 10:1 map from the icon for Snow next week!! No wonder there’s no respect for any legitimate weather business anymore . . Agreed!! Nothing worse than folks who post model maps on Facebook without any context or qualifiers of what the difference is between a model output map vs. a forecast by professionals like the National Weather Service!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 4 hours ago, anthonyweather said: All about hype for numbers. It’s truly an embarrassment. Could you imagine thinking? Hey, what could go wrong here? Let me post one of the greatest models ever the icon, a week out! “Disclaimer model output only not a forecast” Yeah, no shit you just wanna hype for followers . Sickening . I guess if you can't read the qualifier at the top of that FB page "NOTE: ALL MAPS POSTED ON THIS SITE ARE NOT A FORECAST! THEY ARE ONLY GUIDANCE FOR ACTUAL FORECASTS. PLEASE GO TO THE NWS PHILADELPHIA FOR THE ACTUAL FORECAST. Along with the clear qualifier yet again "This is Not a Forecast" in the post with the map.....then sure ya might find it sickening....but then there might be other issues at play there!! LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: My daffodils are coming along nicely One of my neighbors has a ground-cover type hardy geranium still blooming (SW-facing exposure). My highs since Monday were 45, 43, 45, & today 41 (so far). The Tues - today lows were 26, 29, & 27 this morning. The dps have been in the low 20s in any case. Currently 37 with dp 24. Was watching the GFS spin up storms for the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 I guess if you can't read the qualifier at the top of that FB page "NOTE: ALL MAPS POSTED ON THIS SITE ARE NOT A FORECAST! THEY ARE ONLY GUIDANCE FOR ACTUAL FORECASTS. PLEASE GO TO THE NWS PHILADELPHIA FOR THE ACTUAL FORECAST. Along with the clear qualifier yet again "This is Not a Forecast" in the post with the map.....then sure ya might find it sickening....but then there might be other issues at play there!! LOL!!!All for hype and followers. Thought that stuff died out a few years ago. Thanks for trying to bring it back . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: All for hype and followers. Thought that stuff died out a few years ago. Thanks for trying to bring it back . Thank you Anthony! Just so you understand I get zero profit for more followers(or any $$ at all for this page)....for my efforts and daily climate data analysis.... but clearly both from the number of followers and the overwhelming level of support and messages I receive from these members. They really appreciate the effort I put into the local focused real world climate data and insights I share for the county they live in. I could never have believed it would become so popular!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 whatever . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 6 hours ago, ChescoWx said: Couple observations....interesting to see a true gulf low with this next system. Did not see many of those the last couple winters. Down the road I suspect this could open us up for some potential snowstorms along the east coast. I see the 12z ICON trying to spin something up on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning....get your snowblowers ready!!! 12z Euro model also trying to make some spots a little white... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 2 hours ago, ChescoWx said: 12z Euro model also trying to make some spots a little white... 12z Canadian also some Christmas week model snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Finally....a very discrete wave showing up in the flow around the 23rd. Weak and to our S for now but could provide some flakes. Been showing up on a few runs now anyway. Larger window opening up on the ens the last week of Dec as the PAC side amplifies with a transient +PNA and -EPO ridge and a vigorous shortwave slides across the SE. Op gfs hinting at something also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Shame that Sundays storm doesn't have the cold air. Looks like the exact same track as the 1993 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 30 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Shame that Sundays storm doesn't have the cold air. Looks like the exact same track as the 1993 storm. 93 was a triple phase. Polar jet doesn't phase in until way too late. Close but no cigar this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 A couple beautiful mild mid December days on tap before the big rainstorm arrives Sunday PM. The storm Sunday into Monday could bring us one of our biggest rain events in quite a while. Some of the latest models are hinting at between 3" to 5" of rain across much of the area. It will be very mild through the storm with cold air coming back as the storm departs on Monday night. We could see some snow showers with the colder air by Tuesday. Christmas week looks seasonably cold and in fact the remainder of the year looks to remain normal to below average temperatures as we close out the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 ECM has 1" snow on Christmas Eve woohoo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Flood Watch coming over the wire - Quote Flood Watch Flood Watch National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 336 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055- 060>062-070-071-101>106-160945- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0011.231217T2300Z-231218T2300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset- Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland- Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic- Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh- Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Washington, Atlantic City, Morrisville, Morristown, Chalfont, Denton, Freehold, Lansdale, Rehoboth Beach, Sandy Hook, Jackson, Ocean City, Allentown, Centreville, Wharton State Forest, Chestertown, Doylestown, Wilmington, Norristown, Mount Holly, Pennsville, Pottstown, Dover, West Chester, Media, Philadelphia, Newton, Oxford, Long Beach Island, Collegeville, Moorestown, Cape May Court House, Camden, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Perkasie, Flemington, Georgetown, Honey Brook, Bethlehem, Stroudsburg, Easton, Reading, New Brunswick, Kennett Square, Cherry Hill, Trenton, Hammonton, Millville, and Glassboro 336 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of Delaware, including the following areas, Delaware Beaches, Inland Sussex, Kent, and New Castle. Portions of northeast Maryland, including the following areas, Caroline, Kent MD, Queen Annes, and Talbot. Portions of New Jersey, including the following areas, Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Camden, Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington, Sussex, Warren, and Western Monmouth. Portions of Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Berks, Carbon, Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lehigh, Lower Bucks, Monroe, Northampton, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester, and Western Montgomery. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Widespread rain of at least 1.5 inches likely. Total rainfall around 3 inches possible with potential for localized amounts in excess of 3 inches. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ AKL Bottomed out at 32 this morning and hit 54 for a high (so far). Currently 53 and mostly sunny with dp 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 hours ago, RedSky said: ECM has 1" snow on Christmas Eve woohoo It is a Festivus Miracle Incoming!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 On 12/14/2023 at 5:24 PM, Hurricane Agnes said: One of my neighbors has a ground-cover type hardy geranium still blooming (SW-facing exposure). My highs since Monday were 45, 43, 45, & today 41 (so far). The Tues - today lows were 26, 29, & 27 this morning. The dps have been in the low 20s in any case. Currently 37 with dp 24. Was watching the GFS spin up storms for the rest of the month. My mom's gerbera daisy is blooming. Pansies are thriving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 7 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Flood Watch coming over the wire - Bottomed out at 32 this morning and hit 54 for a high (so far). Currently 53 and mostly sunny with dp 33. Looks like 2"+/some wind Sunday night into Monday then colder air rushes in as the Birds play on MNF with a chance of snow showers Tuesday morning. Sloppy coating? 37F @11:10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 6 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Looks like 2"+/some wind Sunday night into Monday then colder air rushes in as the Birds play on MNF with a chance of snow showers Tuesday morning. Sloppy coating? 37F @11:10pm Away game in Seattle although they have a similar forecast there for game time - rain and temps in the low-mid 40s (that stadium mostly has a cover over the seating but has the field open to the elements ). Currently sitting at my low (so far) of 39 with dp 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Think I’ll sneak in one more mow out front today — mulch up the remaining leaves and cut the grass low so if we ever do break our 1” snow drought it will look like a BECS out there. Hope I don’t stir up any yellow jackets. 30F 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 One last nice day before our Nor'easter impacts the area tomorrow PM. Most models show between 2" to 3" of rain across the area, winds will also increase with gusts as high as 35 mph possible before the rain tapers off around noon on Monday. There could be some snow showers Monday night into Tuesday then a seasonably chilly but dry week ahead. Records for today: High 67 (1971) / -1 (1917) our earliest below zero reading on record / Rain 1.80" (1902) / Snow 7.3" (2020) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Away game in Seattle although they have a similar forecast there for game time - rain and temps in the low-mid 40s (that stadium mostly has a cover over the seating but has the field open to the elements ). Currently sitting at my low (so far) of 39 with dp 31. Oh, I know...they haven't won out there since 2008. Home or away I'll be in my recliner. I think Philly is -4" or so rainfall for the year. With this next storm we'll be right around even for the year. (-1 to -2") 37F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Oh, I know...they haven't won out there since 2008. Home or away I'll be in my recliner. I think Philly is -4" or so rainfall for the year. With this next storm we'll be right around even for the year. (-1 to -2") 37F Astroturf... errr... "FieldTurf" surface there. Slip-sliding away in the rain. Can confirm that 38 was my low this morning and have warmed up to a mostly sunny 50 with dp 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Some guidance still hinting at that discrete marginal opportunity on Dec 23 I mentioned a couple of days ago. Chances are low, maybe we get some white rain or mood flakes before the holiday...that would be a win for me in a Nino December. Looking farther ahead, big time pattern changes happening last week of the month. Atlantic side improving and -epo ridge establishing itself on the PAC side to help with a cold air source finally. Stj very active and undecutting a flat PNA ridge. Looks are much improved headed into late month. Window for a system still showing around the 28-30th as mentioned before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 On the Euro weeklies we are mostly BN thru January 30th once past Monday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Latest NAM just a wee bit breezy toward Monday morning... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Some guidance still hinting at that discrete marginal opportunity on Dec 23 I mentioned a couple of days ago. Chances are low, maybe we get some white rain or mood flakes before the holiday...that would be a win for me in a Nino December. Looking farther ahead, big time pattern changes happening last week of the month. Atlantic side improving and -epo ridge establishing itself on the PAC side to help with a cold air source finally. Stj very active and undecutting a flat PNA ridge. Looks are much improved headed into late month. Window for a system still showing around the 28-30th as mentioned before. So far, this December has a 1980's feel to it a few flakes, rainstorms with wind and Temps hanging most days 38-48 with some wind to throw in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, ChescoWx said: Latest NAM just a wee bit breezy toward Monday morning... Now is that at the surface or 2,000 to 5,000 feet up off the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 17 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Now is that at the surface or 2,000 to 5,000 feet up off the surface. 30 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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