ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 7:03 PM, anthonyweather said: Still thinking that 8-14 has the opportunity to slide south maybe 20-30 miles Expand Nice map! Only tweaks I would make is up to 1" in NW Burbs and move the 3" to 6" to more like 2" to 4" and 6" to 12" for NE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 The HRRR....brings plowable snow back to the higher spots in Chesco and 11" at Quakertown!! Lock it in!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 You have been 12KM NAMmed - says double digit snows across much of the area.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 18z 3k NAMs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 12k vs 3k so different… historically, which has been more accurate 36 hours out⁉️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 9:06 PM, snowwors2 said: 12k vs 3k so different… historically, which has been more accurate 36 hours out⁉️ Expand 3k is higher resolution....so you would think it will be more accurate but let's not forget this is the NAM either way so..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 18z ICON kept the same theme as others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 I should have said “more accurately inaccurate”‼️ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 19z NBM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 12k Super Bowl Nammed you knew it had to happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 21z RAP is COLD! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 NBM with 0.5" at KMQS to 2.0" at KABE....NE PA with elevation FTW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 Goofus? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 GFS with a slight move southbound.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 30% improvement is not bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 Saturday could be interesting as well if the GFS is any indication… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 18z Euro continues the colder trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Good lord the HRRR completely wrecks everyone! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 NAM and dynamical models tonight will be telling at 0z wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 1:40 AM, LVblizzard said: Good lord the HRRR completely wrecks everyone! Expand LV Blizzard, based on this MAJOR change, Mt Holly should issue a winter storm warning for the LV if this model shows this again at the 6z . Its hard to argue the map below as this is a pretty accurate sr model 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 1:48 AM, Kevin Reilly said: NAM and dynamical models tonight will be telling at 0z wow! Expand If these models agree with the HRRR run in the last hour , there will be major changes in snowfall totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 2:00 AM, Albedoman said: LV Blizzard, based on this MAJOR change, Mt Holly should issue a winter storm warning for the LV if this model shows this again at the 6z . Its hard to argue the map below as this is a pretty accurate sr model Expand The “long range” HRRR past 24 hours typically isn’t very good. Until I see a clear trend from every other model towards this solution (which I don’t think will happen) I’m sticking with 3-6” for our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Looking at the water vapor map pretty good push moving SE pretty quickly from Winnepeg through Minnesota heading for the Great Lakes. I wonder if this scoots our storm a bit further south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 2:06 AM, LVblizzard said: The “long range” HRRR past 24 hours typically isn’t very good. Until I see a clear trend from every other model towards this solution (which I don’t think will happen) I’m sticking with 3-6” for our area. Expand I admire you sticking to your call but the thing that bothers me in this run is there is one hell of a discrepancy of 6 inches vs 17 inches. Thats nearly an inch or so more of available precipitable water for snow making. LIke I said another 8 hour run or so should iron some of it out. But even if I took half of that extra precip out this run, it would still meet winter storm warning easily. 8-12+ in seems more in line if this trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 NAM 12k snow depth has a slushy inch or so up here. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 No complaints here I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 I'll roll with the hrrrr 16.6" any day 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 I’ll say this I’m not trying to get tooo excited but I’m starting to see Mets acknowledge the seeming SE trend on Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Not to point out the obvious but... We still have all day Monday for these trends to continue. It's insane that these models waffle so close to game time. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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