MGorse Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Not saying the GFS is right for the later Monday and Tuesday storm, however it shows some strong lift centered within the snow growth zone with high relative humidity especially from about I-78 northward when it shows all snow. Surface temperatures fall to near freezing so it would be a wetter snow. It looks to be a quick moving storm, but something to watch as potentially stronger dynamics come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 This storm setup has that look though of an area of heavy banding which would be all snow as the column cools. We shall see. I just want to know, how much snow for Philly? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6z Euro Ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 No doubt you've all missed the one and only fabulous WXSIM (now featuring the Euro model blended in) forecast. WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at 9:00 AM Feb 9, 2024 Monday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. Rain likely after midnight. Low 34. Wind east-northeast around 2 mph in the evening, becoming 7 mph, gusting to 18 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Tuesday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow, rain, and sleet likely in the morning, then a chance of a mix of snow and rain in the afternoon. High 37. Wind chill ranging from 25 to 31. Wind east-northeast around 10 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the morning, becoming north-northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 No one.....and I mean NO ONE, start a storm thread. That is all. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Take a Multi-Vitamin, B-complex and kick yourself in the nuts from time to time and I think you'll be alright to keep alert. I've had fox running around, squirrels making silly sounds so something may be up? Cops released a fox in Lansdale, a stones-throw away a couple days ago....creatures/critters know. Caught on cam: ‘Fox Whisperer,' fellow police officer free animal entangled in netting https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/critter-corner/lansdale-police-fox-rescue/3769425/ My Wyndmoor sister had texted yesterday about the foxes on her street whining and screaming all night. Am guessing it must be mating season or something. The 12z GFS is running so will see what happens. I bottomed out at 39 this morning and had noticed it had clouded over overnight. It's currently partly cloudy and 48 with dp way up there at 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 We need a little something-something with these mid day runs today.... 44F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: My Wyndmoor sister had texted yesterday about the foxes on her street whining and screaming all night. Am guessing it must be mating season or something. The 12z GFS is running so will see what happens. I bottomed out at 39 this morning and had noticed it had clouded over overnight. It's currently partly cloudy and 48 with dp way up there at 41. It's mating season for a bunch of critters/creatures, I smacked a deer years past...just learned Feb is a prime skunk mating thing? Be careful driving/walking and welcome to the jungle.... 49F 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12z GFS might of inched north a bit but looks like it held serve for LV North? idk. all i see are colors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12 minutes ago, Duca892 said: 12z GFS might of inched north a bit but looks like it held serve for LV North? idk. all i see are colors The OP is too north for SEPA but the ensembles are still nice. Precarious situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 29 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: It's mating season for a bunch of critters/creatures, I smacked a deer years past...just learned Feb is a prime skunk mating thing? Be careful driving/walking and welcome to the jungle.... 49F I know I have skunks around here and will go out to the patio and get greeted by their hellish "perfume"! 7 minutes ago, Duca892 said: 12z GFS might of inched north a bit but looks like it held serve for LV North? idk. all i see are colors It definitely appears to have ticked north and looks like it wanted to be an apps runner and then does the Miller-B jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The CMC is Philly area and Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The Ukie is a strung out and weak 1-2" for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Ukie is like "The GFS NAM'd you, so 'nope'". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, RedSky said: The Ukie is a strung out and weak 1-2" for all Just now, Hurricane Agnes said: Ukie is like "The GFS NAM'd you, so 'nope'". Jinx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 13z NBM looks more realistic with that uncertainty about what might or might not happen with that "jump" (and how close to the coast or even inland the low goes). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 hours ago, MGorse said: This storm setup has that look though of an area of heavy banding which would be all snow as the column cools. We shall see. I just want to know, how much snow for Philly? I will take a stab at it looking at 40f when precip begins and temps falling to 32-34 , warm grounds, sun angle, lower elevations coating to 2" mainly on the grass away from the Delaware River places like Media, Delaware County up along the Blue Route to the Turnpike or so. Elevation will play a role for sure and dynamics. I am not sure though if the storm track and trends are done here think we know for sure in 24 hours or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, hazwoper said: No one.....and I mean NO ONE, start a storm thread. That is all. i second that, at least until the snow if falling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 14 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Ukie is like "The GFS NAM'd you, so 'nope'". I guess this is the weaker wave further south solution lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snobal Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 i think we need to start a storm thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 ICON is in the Finger Lakes it's model buckshot Friday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The NBM with it's nice blend has done IMHO the best job with storms so far this season...If I were in the Lehigh Valley and on northbound from there I would be pretty optimistic about snow. Down in southern climes like where I am....not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Few are talking about the long range and for good reason, this might be it until...March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: Few are talking about the long range and for good reason, this might be it until...March Early spring incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, ChescoWx said: Early spring incoming! Worst pattern change ever lol, but it did look good at range..and on that one near biblical GFS run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 15 minutes ago, RedSky said: Worst pattern change ever lol, but it did look good at range..and on that one near biblical GFS run Other than one week in mid Jan featuring two nuisance events, it's been another ratter. What are we left with? Hoping for a paste job in early March to declare victory? Hey, I'll track anything as long as there's something to track. But I don't think enough winter is left for "the big turned around" we've all been hoping for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, JTA66 said: Other than one week in mid Jan featuring two nuisance events, it's been another ratter. What are we left with? Hoping for a paste job in early March to declare victory? Hey, I'll track anything as long as there's something to track. But I don't think enough winter is left for "the big turned around" we've all been hoping for. How about a well timed polar vortex intrusion for one in early April, been awhile since we had something big in April I don't know if the climate has warmed too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 ECM is rolling and all the chips are in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Appears the ECM held it's ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Through 1pm Tuesday the Euro has 2" at KMQS to 7" at KABE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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