RedSky Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This touted pattern change is going to require alot of patience...even more than usual. Big Aleutian low sets up around the 13th, wave breaks and NAO ridge builds a few days later in response to the big EPO ridge and +PNA that the Aleutian low triggers. I think Iceman is on the right track, but these setups generally don't yield meaningful wintry weather here until 5-7 days after the NAO pulses then starts to relax. So I could see a rainer around VD but a relative close call event as the NAO goes neg.....that system moves into the 50/50 region as the TPV wobbles around on the backside of the NAO domain ridging. Split flow out west kicks a STJ wave east around the 19th-20th......but given the progression of the pattern, realistically we are probably looking towards the 3rd week of Feb...few days after the 21st give or take, for a legit threat. That's how I'm seeing it anyway. Thats all I got....back to taking a break. Patience. 3rd week of February eh, cue the can kick meme lol. I hope peeps keep expectations in check and realize this may end up nothing more than a 10 day cold wave like January that may or may not feature some kind of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Kind of already over winter TBH. LR models show some below average temps, but really the overall pattern doesn't favor many decent shots at storms through 2/17. I mean, I'd take a late month storm, but not holding my breath and honestly after all this cloud cover, I am ready for spring and summer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 After President's day my thoughts are for spring warmth. Said it before but Late November through mid February is my go time for winter but we receive less of it in early and mid season as the years go by. I was on the wagon for a pattern change when it was originally scheduled to arrive the first week of February. Now it's the 15-20th. Was looking forward to a spring arrives early in March as the El Nino trademark. It had better be 2018 or MECSish or HECSish anything less will suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 omg, the sun does exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 46 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Kind of already over winter TBH. LR models show some below average temps, but really the overall pattern doesn't favor many decent shots at storms through 2/17. I mean, I'd take a late month storm, but not holding my breath and honestly after all this cloud cover, I am ready for spring and summer. The Valentines Day storm (ish) has been all over the place last two day runs. Meh. Yeah, I check out around President's Day and get antsy about how bad my garage looks from the Winter waiting for the warmth, and longer days. I said in the MA forum we were 384 hrs away from another great 384 hr run on the ensemble models and almost got crucified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 My lawn tractor was returned this week from being serviced. I'm ready to mow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 3 hours ago, JTA66 said: My lawn tractor was returned this week from being serviced. I'm ready to mow. It may get stuck in the mud. When I was out yesterday running errands I did see a few surviving plowed mounds still occupying space in the store parking lots, albeit pretty much completely dirt covered. Well the first day of February started off with a low of 29 (with folks out there scraping frost off their car windshields) and made it to a high of 47. I finished January with 7.53" of liquid (although it was missing some rain when snow/ice-clogged with that storm #1 in mid Jan.). I did see the sun much of the day today but then as progged, it clouded over. It's currently 45 with dp 37. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 No chance that greasy varmint will see his shadow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 hours ago, RedSky said: No chance that greasy varmint will see his shadow Yea he comes out before sunrise! Phil didn't see his shadow early spring! Wait it already has been spring! Wait the can kicking is real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Yea he comes out before sunrise! But there are still plenty of floodlights out there. Looks like Phil cancelled winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Let's move Ground Hog's Day to 12/2...put his winter forecast up against JB's and DT's .15" overnight, nice mud fresher! 40F 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Let's move Ground Hog's Day to 12/2...put his winter forecast up against JB's and DT's .15" overnight, nice mud fresher! 40F The Governor officially named Punxsutawney Phil the "official" PA State Meteorologist this morning. So far have 0.12" in the bucket today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Happy Groundhog Day to those that celebrate! No shadow this year so spring is around the corner....or maybe not! Some light rain overnight with County totals including East Nantmeal 0.13" / Atglen 0.11" / Chester Springs 0.14" / Glenmoore 0.14" / Devault 0.11" / West Chester 0.12" / London Grove 0.11" and Kennett Square 0.09", Looks like some great winter weather on tap for much of the upcoming week with sunny skies and seasonably chilly but not cold temps. A nice break after all the drearies! Records for today: High 60 (1967) / Low 6 below (1918) / Precipitation 1.69" (1897) / Snow 8.5" (1897) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Back to back snowstorms "only" 2 weeks away.... as that well respected MET says....delayed but not denied!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 To be clear, I don't doubt there's a pattern change after mid month. To what extent, how long-lived and whether it produces, tbd. Funny story, I'm currently in a Teams meeting with normal co-workers (meaning they're not weather-obsessed weenies like us). They're going on about the ground hog and looking at the weather on their phones seeing the warm week ahead. Yeah, they think we're clear sailing into spring from here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 7 hours ago, ChescoWx said: Back to back snowstorms "only" 2 weeks away.... as that well respected MET says....delayed but not denied!! I’ll take a 7.3” lock it in, see ya in few weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Wall to wall sun for real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Things have been slower on the work front so finally had a chance to download and consolidate all 23 available Chester County climate data sites (see below table for detail). All stations have been weighted equally for all years they were reporting data . I then compared the all average temperature by decade data to the NCEI NOAA Chester County PA average temperatures reported by decade. As expected the greatest downward post observation adjustments to the data were during the warmest raw data reported decades of the 1930's and 1940's with a gradual reduction in cooling that started in the 1950's finally resulting in what are now warming adjustments during the most recent 2 decades. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Our beautiful stretch of February weather looks to continue for most of the next week with average to above temps and sunshine much of the upcoming week. The rumored pattern change to colder....if it occurs is still at least 10 or more days away. Records for today: High 63 (1991) / Low 1 below (1898) / Precipitation 1.35" (1920) / Snow 9.1" (1995) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Half a dozen honeybees at the bird feeder, that's different. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 It will be gone by 0Z but for now the Euro is showing some junk n’ stuff for next Monday. Sure would be fun to track again, this patience stuff sucks. Gorgeous Pac puke afternoon, 48F w/o a cloud in the sky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: It will be gone by 0Z but for now the Euro is showing some junk n’ stuff for next Monday. Sure would be fun to track again, this patience stuff sucks. Gorgeous Pac puke afternoon, 48F w/o a cloud in the sky. In the meantime it is at least nice to see the sun. I thought I had moved to Seattle, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 hours ago, RedSky said: Half a dozen honeybees at the bird feeder, that's different. What in the heck is in your bird feeder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 22 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: What in the heck is in your bird feeder Standard millet, cracked corn, sunflower seed etc Honeybees don't hibernate and forage when the temperature is over 40F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Standard milet, cracked corn I don’t know Honeybees, but cracked corn and millet is a recipe for Grackles, European Starlings[insert vomit emoji]and Mourning Doves. You most likely know this, but add a suet feeder and be amazed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 hours ago, Violentweatherfan said: I don’t know Honeybees, but cracked corn and millet is a recipe for Grackles, European Starlings[insert vomit emoji]and Mourning Doves. You most likely know this, but add a suet feeder and be amazed High concentration of sunflower seeds close to 75% and a suet feeder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 0z GFS drops a pink Valentines Day nuke on this whole region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Hi please sign me up for the Day 9 Valentines Day bomb the 0z GFS spit out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Most spots were in the 20's to start the day with the lowest I could find in both Warwick Township and down in Kennett Square at 22 degrees. Tomorrow and Wednesday look to be close to normal temps while the rest of the week should see above normal temps rising into the 50's toward the weekend. Next week should see a return to a stretch of below normal temps. Records for today: High 66 (1991) / Low 11 below (1918) / Precipitation 1.90" (1907) / Snow 12.0" (1907) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 hours ago, Duca892 said: Hi please sign me up for the Day 9 Valentines Day bomb the 0z GFS spit out This went from a bomb snowstorm to cutting through the middle of PA to being now I think surpressed. I always love run to run changes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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