kickingupastorm Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 If we’re going with 4-8, why isn’t this WWA not bumped up to a WSW? Serious question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxradio Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:07 PM, LVblizzard said: Is DT on crack or something? That is just a ridiculous map. Expand Sue Serio ought to go count Calories, and DT first call map was on FB page this morning so why the 10:15 time stamp? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:11 PM, kickingupastorm said: If we’re going with 4-8, why isn’t this WWA not bumped up to a WSW? Serious question.Because it’s not gonna be 4-8…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:07 PM, LVblizzard said: Is DT on crack or something? That is just a ridiculous map. Expand Can't wait for the edit after he digests the new euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:11 PM, kickingupastorm said: If we’re going with 4-8, why isn’t this WWA not bumped up to a WSW? Serious question. Expand The NWS currently does not have 6-8 inches in the forecast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Hope these South shifts stop. Was looking forward to a nice 4in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:11 PM, wxradio said: Sue Serio ought to go count Calories, and DT first call map was on FB page this morning so why the 10:15 time stamp? Expand Looks like she was showing their 'Fox Model' which is probably not their actual current forecast totals, for what its worth. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:14 PM, Duca892 said: Hope these South shifts stop. Was looking forward to a nice 4in Expand It is concerning these norlun like situations are notorious for shifting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Just updated my page, I stuck with 2-4” for the Lehigh Valley. Not sure where all these ultra aggressive forecasts are coming from. I’d be more surprised if my forecast busted high rather than low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18, 2024 Author Share Posted January 18, 2024 Well whatever we get, I'm going to enjoy it, ya never know, it could be the last snow of the season... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:16 PM, RedSky said: It is concerning these norlun like situations are notorious for shifting Expand We usually have to worry about these shifting north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Anyone see the 12z GFS for next Friday? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:15 PM, MGorse said: Looks like she was showing their 'Fox Model' which is probably not their actual current forecast totals, for what its worth. Expand Yeah, I keep hearing about "Fox's new exclusive Model" all week from Kathy before our first storm. NWS thinks we may die.... National Weather Service says there is a possible threat to life or property in Berks County, Delaware County, Eastern Chester County, Eastern Montgomery County, Lehigh County, Lower Bucks County, Northampton County, Philadelphia County, Upper Bucks County, Western Chester County, Western Montgomery County, Carbon County, Monroe County, Atlantic County, Camden County, Cumberland County, Gloucester County, Mercer County, Northwestern Burlington County, Salem County, Southeastern Burlington County, Warren County, Hunterdon County, Ocean County, Somerset County, Warren County, Kent County, New Castle County. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:19 PM, MJO812 said: We usually have to worry about these shifting north And it’ll probably end up in nyc. No sense even trying to forecast it, it won’t end up where modeled . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:20 PM, LVblizzard said: Anyone see the 12z GFS for next Friday? Expand A page back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18, 2024 Author Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:22 PM, Birds~69 said: Yeah, I keep hearing about "Fox's new exclusive Model" all week from Kathy before our first storm. NWS thinks we may die.... National Weather Service says there is a possible threat to life or property in Berks County, Delaware County, Eastern Chester County, Eastern Montgomery County, Lehigh County, Lower Bucks County, Northampton County, Philadelphia County, Upper Bucks County, Western Chester County, Western Montgomery County, Carbon County, Monroe County, Atlantic County, Camden County, Cumberland County, Gloucester County, Mercer County, Northwestern Burlington County, Salem County, Southeastern Burlington County, Warren County, Hunterdon County, Ocean County, Somerset County, Warren County, Kent County, New Castle County. Expand The way people around here drive any time snow is falling, that's not much of a stretch... Monday night was atrocious and there was like a dusting of snow on the roads at the time.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Bigger bust potential imho is coming in under the 4-6" for SE PA, not above that. Like ice said, we enjoy. Might be the last for a little while. Kids have a damn virtual day tomorrow. Most of us here were lucky to have a actuual snow days when we were young. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18, 2024 Author Share Posted January 18, 2024 Not much change from Mt. Holly's snow map after the 12z runs: I think 2-5" is a good bet for much of the subforum. There will be a narrow corridor of 4-8" wherever the IVT sets up. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 5 inches seems like a lock here. I’ll take, but I’m also greedy for more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18, 2024 Author Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:32 PM, kickingupastorm said: 5 inches seems like a lock here. I’ll take, but I’m also greedy for more. Expand I wouldn't set my expectations that high... IVT's are notoriously tricky to nail down ahead of time. Could very well only be 2-3" if you miss out on that. Don't think anyone should go into this expecting 4-6". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:30 PM, The Iceman said: Not much change from Mt. Holly's snow map after the 12z runs: I think 2-5" is a good bet for much of the subforum. There will be a narrow corridor of 4-8" wherever the IVT sets up. Expand 3-5" is very logical in our area w/some higher exceptions IMO. NWS WWA is now for 24hrs (1am -1am) for a couple inches...Visability will never go below 8mi with that velocity. 31F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:30 PM, The Iceman said: Not much change from Mt. Holly's snow map after the 12z runs: I think 2-5" is a good bet for much of the subforum. There will be a narrow corridor of 4-8" wherever the IVT sets up. Expand Looks good south of 422 and the turnpike but I’d cut everything by 1-2” north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 5:58 PM, anthonyweather said: DT and fox 29 latest . Expand Well we will know exactly who uses mesoscale models and who does not LOL. I am going with mesoscale models too I learned my lesson on February 6-7th 2016 when I laughed at the NAM.... but maybe the prudent thing to do is go with 2-4" a blend of the all the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 That 4-6” just keeps expanding to cover the entire area let’s go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:43 PM, Kevin Reilly said: Well we will know exactly who uses mesoscale models and who does not LOL. I am going with mesoscale models too I learned my lesson on February 6-7th 2016 when I laughed at the NAM.... but maybe the prudent thing to do is go with 2-4" a blend of the all the models.It’s a 2-3” event for most , lucky ones may see 6”, but we won’t know where until the storm is here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:30 PM, The Iceman said: Not much change from Mt. Holly's snow map after the 12z runs: I think 2-5" is a good bet for much of the subforum. There will be a narrow corridor of 4-8" wherever the IVT sets up. Expand I mean come on lol just call it 2-4" let someone complain about the 0.8" This whole set up is not an exact science. Good Luck nailing down the Norlun trough its like pinpointing exact location of a strong thunderstorm when there is a 20-30% chance of them in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:09 PM, RedSky said: Is DT trying to one up JB? 4" NYC Expand Whatever happened to DT? I used to enjoy arguing with him....did not take much before he started to drop the f bombs....good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 I agree with MGorse: The best way to go is 3" or so with a max of 5" where ever the norlun sets up. Maybe some lucky soul picks up 6-7" but that will be an isolated area or two somewhere in southern pa over to the Jersey Coast north of ACY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 We're talking about tenths of an inch liquid equivalent...good luck sorting that out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:35 PM, The Iceman said: I wouldn't set my expectations that high... IVT's are notoriously tricky to nail down ahead of time. Could very well only be 2-3" if you miss out on that. Don't think anyone should go into this expecting 4-6". Expand Exactly. This is a general 1-3" type of setup. The higher 3-5" stuff will be wherever the banding sets up. Could n or s of the city still. We just can't know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now