penndotguy Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 11:55 PM, RedSky said: Expectation set for 2" snow, low has been the way to go Expand Yuppers it has been theme so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 18z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 18z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 18z ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 NBM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 NWS WWA for 2-4" seems right. Most will probably see 1.5-2.5". Max around 4 or perhaps 5+ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 A note regarding the NWS total snowfall graphic. If the forecast amounts just cross over a whole number it bumps to the next range. For example, an area of 4.1 to 4.5 inches will be plotted as 4-6 inches. In this case, the forecast actually is not for 5-6 inches. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 12:10 AM, ChescoWx said: NBM Expand The blender is unusually high 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 12:55 AM, MGorse said: A note regarding the NWS total snowfall graphic. If the forecast amounts just cross over a whole number it bumps to the next range. For example, an area of 4.1 to 4.5 inches will be plotted as 4-6 inches. In this case, the forecast actually is not for 5-6 inches. Expand I could see how this might be a point of confusion with the public. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 1:35 AM, zenmsav6810 said: I could see how this might be a point of confusion with the public. I mean at the end of the day there’s really not that much of a difference between 4 inches and 6 inches once it’s on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 1:38 AM, anthonyweather said: I mean at the end of the day there’s really not that much of a difference between 4 inches and 6 inches once it’s on the ground . Expand True but it can end up crossing advisory versus warning criteria. And the WSW product has 2-4 inches but the graphic has an area of 4-6 inches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Low for the day was 10F Not too impressive, between today and Sunday morning probably will be the coldest temp of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 We have officially been NAM’d. 0z run slams us with the inverted trough. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 2:26 AM, LVblizzard said: We have officially been NAM’d. 0z run slams us with the inverted trough. Expand Yep we are on the conveyor belt of cold to the north of the trough squeezing out all the moisture with pretty cold temps so higher snow ratios. We lift off!! I mean a lifting mechanism. It is uncanny how similar this set up looks to February 6th into 7th 2016 with the inverted Norlun trough this one here on Friday is just over a much larger area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 3km NAM says it's 12km brother has been drinking....let's cut those figures in half!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 NBM creeping up though... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 3:12 AM, ChescoWx said: NBM creeping up though... Ic Expand razor sharp cut off about 35 miles away if you are like me in extreme SE pa. This has a classic Norlun trough look. I would put more stock into dynamic short range dynamic models instead of Icon, GFS, and Euro they are just going to smooth things out. While the NAM's of the world will hone in on more local dynamic features like lift along the norlun trough to wring out all available moisture to efficiently mix with cold air feeding down from the NNE and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 3:18 AM, Kevin Reilly said: razor sharp cut off about 35 miles away if you are like me in extreme SE pa. This has a classic Norlun trough look. I would put more stock into dynamic short range dynamic models instead of Icon, GFS, and Euro they are just going to smooth things out. While the NAM's of the world will hone in on more local dynamic features like lift along the norlun trough to wring out all available moisture to efficiently mix with cold air feeding down from the NNE and NE. Expand agreed! That's why I like the 3k more than the 12k NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Start time has has edged earlier more like 8am Friday very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 NAM and the other American hi-res models vs. everything else. Quite the battle we have here. Hopefully we get some clearer answers by tomorrow's 12z suite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Weather World 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 2:43 AM, ChescoWx said: 3km NAM says it's 12km brother has been drinking....let's cut those figures in half!! Expand I’ll settle for the 5” vs the 7”‼️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 0z ECM is 2.5-4" Kuchera This looks locked in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Looks like another solid 2-4in event here in Bethlehem. Take that in a heartbeat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:17 AM, RedSky said: Start time has has edged earlier more like 8am Friday very good. Expand Earlier IMO, pre dawn... 16F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Temperatures have started to rebound across the area with clouds on the increase after a low of 14 degrees at 330 this morning. A cloudy day today with temps remaining below freezing across most of Chester County for the 4th consecutive. The below freezing streak looks to continue across the area until Monday at the earliest. Light snow should arrive toward daybreak tomorrow and continue much of the day tomorrow. Snow totals should range from 2" to 4" across SW Chester County to 3" to 5" as we move NE through Chester County and into Montgomery and Bucks counties. We could see a little blowing and drifting snow later Friday night into Saturday and temps will struggle to get much above the teens with wind chills near or below zero. A warming trend gets underway next week as we get our January Thaw. Records for today: High 66 (1973) / Low 4 below (1994) / Rain 1.15" (1915) / Snow 6.0" (1930) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Temperatures spiked this morning to 18. Vast improvement from yesterday. Weather Sentry has a 5" solid hit for MBY tomorrow. We'll have to see where the bands set up. Looks like the Bermuda high is parked there for the next 7-10 days afterward dragging up those Cleveland steamers. Everyone take a break and reload in two weeks. I was told to "buckle up" in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 The latest 3k RRFS keeps mainly a non event for most aside from a narrow band from Lehigh valley and points east. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Friday night/Saturday will be the most winter-ish weather we had in a while. Couple of inches, snow on snow, temps in the teens/20s and windy.... 18F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Latest SREF 9zHoning In on LV To NW philly hammer zone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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