PghPirates27 Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Looks like long range forecast - at least on weather channel app has gone up 3-4 degrees each day since last week. Now mid to high 30's every day after new years. Trending the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 3 hours ago, TimB said: @TheClimateChangerI’d assume we have warmest year at KPIT in the bag? Looks like it. This is averaged by month. Given today's observed weather and the forecast for the remainder of the week, I can't see the December monthly mean falling enough to change the annual mean. PIT Airport Pittsburgh threaded record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 3 hours ago, PghPirates27 said: Looks like long range forecast - at least on weather channel app has gone up 3-4 degrees each day since last week. Now mid to high 30's every day after new years. Trending the wrong way. Pattern changes are chaotic, less certainty on guidance, but also usually rushed. No guarantees of course, but I'm still optimistic we will have better luck in early Jan. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Looks like possibly our first GEFS ensemble runs of the season with mean total snowfall over 6” finally showed up last night. 0z total might be a little high because it had several members pushing an advisory level snowfall Friday night into Saturday which seems ambitious, but things may finally be pointing in the right direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 12 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Looks like it. This is averaged by month. Given today's observed weather and the forecast for the remainder of the week, I can't see the December monthly mean falling enough to change the annual mean. PIT Airport Pittsburgh threaded record Is there any way to tell if the mean is higher because of mostly higher highs or higher lows. It feels to me like even though this could be the warmest year, it is mainly driven by the lows not being as cold. just seems like most of the variances are related to warmer temperatures in the historically colder months and less by extreme high temperatures in the summer. Curious if that data exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: Is there any way to tell if the mean is higher because of mostly higher highs or higher lows. It feels to me like even though this could be the warmest year, it is mainly driven by the lows not being as cold. just seems like most of the variances are related to warmer temperatures in the historically colder months and less by extreme high temperatures in the summer. Curious if that data exists. Of course it exists. The 3 years we’re competing with for warmest year at PIT airport (1991, 2012 and 2016) had warmer average max temps than this year: So naturally this year has had the warmest lows at PIT: (Yes, I know 1949 isn’t actually PIT airport but I forgot to filter out 1948-1952). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Look at this cope. 804-hour ensemble mean and control run. I'm old enough to remember when every 384 hour run in the wintertime had more snow than this. For Pittsburgh (and much of the region, for that matter), the ensemble mean looks below average to me. A foot over 35 days in the heart of winter? The control run looks about average, maybe a bit above (16-18 inches around Pittsburgh). Sure this would be a godsend compared to the last couple of years, but it certainly isn't anything unusual outside of the NYC to New England region [which probably won't happen because this is an 804 hour model run]. I love how he focuses on the control run showing 30 inches in NYC - how about it showing an inch in Minneapolis, and only a foot in the UP of Michigan? More snow in west Texas than Marquette? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 27 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Look at this cope. 804-hour ensemble mean and control run. I'm old enough to remember when every 384 hour run in the wintertime had more snow than this. For Pittsburgh (and much of the region, for that matter), the ensemble mean looks below average to me. A foot over 35 days in the heart of winter? The control run looks about average, maybe a bit above (16-18 inches around Pittsburgh). Sure this would be a godsend compared to the last couple of years, but it certainly isn't anything unusual outside of the NYC to New England region [which probably won't happen because this is an 804 hour model run]. I love how he focuses on the control run showing 30 inches in NYC - how about it showing an inch in Minneapolis, and only a foot in the UP of Michigan? More snow in west Texas than Marquette? Those ENS snow maps at that range are pretty useless imho. Swing pretty wildly, prone to being weighted towards a few really bad or really big hits etc. Years past these maps did show more, but it's not like they ever verified then either. They did correct some bad bias'es that made them lean more snowy, so that's at least part of it. Only thing you can really glean is that at least as of that run, the pattern *may* be conducive for above average snow for the month of January. If its bad I wouldn't lose sleep over it, and if it looked great I wouldn't be teeing up the "It's Happening" Gif either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Those ENS snow maps at that range are pretty useless imho. Swing pretty wildly, prone to being weighted towards a few really bad or really big hits etc. Years past these maps did show more, but it's not like they ever verified then either. They did correct some bad bias'es that made them lean more snowy, so that's at least part of it. Only thing you can really glean is that at least as of that run, the pattern *may* be conducive for above average snow for the month of January. If its bad I wouldn't lose sleep over it, and if it looked great I wouldn't be teeing up the "It's Happening" Gif either... I recognize that 6-7” of snow over the next 16 days would be basically within the margin of error for “normal” but that’s what the GEFS mean is sitting at right now, which isn’t horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 PIT closing in on an inch of rain today. Daily rainfall record has been set, but the old record was the softest of December and one of the softest of the entire year at 0.73”. Also moves us past 2002, so this won’t be the driest year of the 2000s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 10th day of 55+ temperatures this month. This occurred in 2 Decembers from 1952 to 2014, and has now occurred in 3 from 2015 to 2023. The record is 14 in 2015, which we won’t get to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 This one should be finalized. 2nd December on record that the airport didn’t get below 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Temps look to level out over the next 4 days, but still a monster AN departure for Dec. 5th Dec. in the last 100 yrs to crack the 40F mark, however 3rd in only the last 9 years. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 3 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: Temps look to level out over the next 4 days, but still a monster AN departure for Dec. 5th Dec. in the last 100 yrs to crack the 40F mark, however 3rd in only the last 9 years. SMH Well we all know why that is…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 Snow Flurries in the air!! Stop the press! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 Didn't see this depressing stat posted here: I get that the negativity can be... over the top here sometimes. But when it's been a year+ and the 2nd worst year in weather history for the area..... MAYBE it's sometimes warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 18 minutes ago, Gordo74 said: Didn't see this depressing stat posted here: I get that the negativity can be... over the top here sometimes. But when it's been a year+ and the 2nd worst year in weather history for the area..... MAYBE it's sometimes warranted. 2023 is about to be over ( thankfully). So let's look forward to a better year coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 20 hours ago, TimB said: Its been awful for sure, second least snow for a calendar year on record. Its a low bar, but gotta think we do better between now through mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Its been awful for sure, second least snow for a calendar year on record. Its a low bar, but gotta think we do better between now through mid March. There are opportunities. The 7th looks particularly interesting at this point. We’ll see if anything hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 hours ago, Ahoff said: There are opportunities. The 7th looks particularly interesting at this point. We’ll see if anything hits. I agree, the pattern is changing, but that doesn't guarantee a storm, but we should at least have some chances.That 6th-7th storm bares watching for sure. Also maybe a lighter event prior if we can get cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I agree, the pattern is changing, but that doesn't guarantee a storm, but we should at least have some chances.That 6th-7th storm bares watching for sure. Also maybe a lighter event prior if we can get cold enough. At this point a couple inches is all I'd be rooting for. We'll see for sure, but things are picking up a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 The latest GFS should make everyone here happy. At I'd hope so, but I just don't know anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 16 minutes ago, Ahoff said: The latest GFS should make everyone here happy. At I'd hope so, but I just don't know anymore. Depends on who we’re talking about-lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 20 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Depends on who we’re talking about-lol That’s why there’s a caveat, lol. But I’m not sure how 20” in two weeks, could upset anyone. I’m sure we’ll find out though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 hours ago, Ahoff said: That’s why there’s a caveat, lol. But I’m not sure how 20” in two weeks, could upset anyone. I’m sure we’ll find out though. Things still look on track for a possible storm on the 7th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Enjoy it now because it's gonna change 50 times before then. Signal is there for a snow storm. Game on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Enjoy it now because it's gonna change 50 times before then. Signal is there for a snow storm. Game on. Man, the GFS has come to life. Hope it’s onto something. Euro doesn’t have the storm in the right place for us but way too early to sort out those details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Enjoy it now because it's gonna change 50 times before then. Signal is there for a snow storm. Game on. Indeed, still far enough out it could change pretty drastically, some of the individual ensembles barely had a storm or were pretty far east. The Thursday storm needs to get resolved before Id get excited. Just nice to have a legit potential storm, something to give a distraction from post holiday return to work depression lol Im really looking forward to the next time we get something to track and it keeps looking better and better as we close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Light snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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